Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2018

Storm Warning 122, NWS Anchorage, AK

November 6, 2018

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this storm warning at Nov 6, 2018, 3:27 PM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 6, 2018, 3:27 PM AKST (00:27 UTC)
Expired
Nov 8, 2018, 3:15 PM AKST
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

355 
FZAK62 PAFC 070027
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-071415-
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 mb low at 62N 171W moves inland Wed morning. A 990 mb
Kamchatka low moves to 60N 178W Thu afternoon at 983 mb.

$$

PKZ411-071415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain and snow 
showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 33 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-071415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 34 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-071415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10
to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-071415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
327 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$
5 follow-up statements
339 
FZAK62 PAFC 071254
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080230-
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 997 mb low at 56N 165E moves to 61N 172W at 989 mb for Fri 
morning. Its front pushes across the Bering into Western Alaska 
and across the Alaska Peninsula by Fri morning. Several troughs 
slide over the Western Bering through Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-080230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 36 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 11 to
19 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 21 to 36 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 11 to
19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 32 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10 to 18 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$
861 
FZAK62 PAFC 080017
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081415-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 mb low Wed afternoon at 57N 170E moves to 60N 179W at 985 
mb by Thu afternoon and then to 58N 177E at 1000 mb by Fri
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft building to 17 to
32 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 21 to 36
ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas
20 to 30 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$
530 
FZAK62 PAFC 081221
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090200-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb low at 59N 176E moves to 64N 177W at 1011 mb by Sat
morning. Its front moves into Western Alaska Thu afternoon. A 999 mb
low forms at 58N 174W and moves to 52N 176W at 1001 mb by Sat 
morning. A 1027 mb North Pacific low moves to 57N 167W at 995 mb for
Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 30 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Widespread rain 
and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW after midnight. 
Seas 19 to 29 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$
892 
FZAK62 PAFC 081635
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090630-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb low at 59N 176E moves to 64N 177W at 1011 mb by Sat
morning. Its front moves into Western Alaska Thu afternoon. A 999 mb
low forms at 58N 174W and moves to 52N 176W at 1001 mb by Sat 
morning. A 1027 mb North Pacific low moves to 57N 167W at 995 mb for
Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-090630-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 30 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090630-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Widespread rain 
and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090630-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW after midnight. 
Seas 19 to 29 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090630-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$
134 
FZAK62 PAFC 090015
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091415-
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 985 mb low at 61N 179W Thu afternoon moves to 64N 174W at 996 mb 
by Fri afternoon with its front moving across the western Aleutians 
through Sat afternoon. A 997 mb low at 50N 155W Sat morning moves to 
55N 160W at 979 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 30 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt becoming SW 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 28 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 6, 6:44 AM AKST, 8 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 6, 6:44 AM AKST, 8 hours 43 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
644 AM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level ridge continues to be the main weather feature
for mainland AK. It is currently sliding eastward and is located
over eastern Alaska, extending up through the eastern Interior all
the way into the Arctic. Behind it, an upper level low with a
broad trough encompasses much of the Bering Sea and is approaching
the West Coast of the state. Another upper level low is moving
northeast through the North Pacific and approaching the Gulf of
Alaska.

The upper level high continues to keep temperatures cold at the
surface for much of Southcentral Alaska. Meanwhile, the broad
upper level trough is supporting a weak frontal system that is
pushing through Southwest AK, bringing rain and low ceilings with
it. The upper level trough is also supporting a stronger low out
in the Bering Sea that has gale force winds associated with it.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good overall agreement for the next couple of days.
As the previous discussion noted, models are locked on the system
in the Bering, so a consistent forecast continues there. Models
differ from yesterday with the low moving into the Gulf of Alaska,
but have come into agreement enough to start to hone the forecast
for Thursday into Friday. All models are sending precipitation
into coastal areas of Southcentral, so we upped PoPs and QPF for
areas along the coast. Fine tuning will be needed over the next
couple days.

The next low in the Bering Seas presents the same difficulties as
yesterday, with the EC still moving the system farther south
faster than other guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will largely persist.
However, some low level stratus is lingering along Knik Arm and
pushing into the airfield this morning. The stratus is expected
to clear by late morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will be over the mainland through tonight. This high
will slowly slide east as a trough approaches from the west. A low
approaching from the south will begin to interact with the trough
later today as it moves into the southwest Gulf. The leading
front will bring precipitation and increasing winds to Kodiak
later today, and the Kenai Peninsula tonight. The front will reach
the northern Gulf coast Wednesday morning, with the low at this
time southeast of Kodiak Island. The exact track of this low is
still up for debate, and precipitation amounts are still in
question. By Wednesday night the low becomes fully entrained in
the upper trough. The axis of the trough will be near Cook Inlet
by early Thursday morning, which puts much of Southcentral in a
favorable position for at least a chance of some precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal system along the Kuskokwim Delta coast will swing
slowly inland today. The front will reach the Kuskokwim Valley
and Greater Bristol Bay area this afternoon and evening and then
stall overnight along a line running from Sleetmute to Dillingham.
As a surface low and accompanying frontal system move into the
western Gulf late tonight through Wednesday morning, the stalled
front will begin drifting slowly east while being reinforced
slightly as a deformation band along the northwest side of the
low. Upper level ridging will build in Wednesday night and shift
inland Thursday morning before the next incoming frontal system
reaches the coast Thursday afternoon and swings inland Thursday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface low currently to the west of Saint Matthew Island will
continue tracking off to the northeast, reaching the Seward
Peninsula late tonight. Cool, unstable troughing with general
westerly flow across the Bering today will be briefly replaced by
ridging building in from west to east tonight through Wednesday
ahead of the next incoming frontal system. This front will reach
the western Aleutians early Wednesday morning, the central Bering
and Aleutians Wednesday afternoon and evening and the eastern
Bering Thursday morning. The strong associated parent low will
track into the western Bering Wednesday night bringing strong cold
air advection and an area of storm force winds with it to the
offshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

An active pattern will be on tap for the west domain Thursday to
Monday. At the onset of the forecast period, there is a storm
south of the Aleutian chain and a mature system with a triple
point low in the Bering. Additionally, there is a disturbance near
Kodiak. There are some minor differences with timing and the
tracks of of the lows as early as F72 and F96. However, as time
elapses, the differences significantly amplify. With the longwave
trough in place over the Bering and the North Pacific, we are confident
in the level of persistent unsettledness for the Bering, the
Aleutians and Southwest Alaska. However, given the lack of run to
run continuity there seems to be more uncertainty in the long term
for Southcentral Alaska including Prince William Sound. Waiting
for the details to flesh out beyond F96.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE....Gale Warning 411, 412, 413, 150, 177, 178, 181, 185,
351, 352, 119, 120, 131, 132.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BJB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...PS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 6, 3:26 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC60 hr
Nov 6, 3:26 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC4 days
Nov 6, 3:48 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC48 hr
Nov 7, 3:52 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC3 days
Nov 7, 3:52 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC7 days
Nov 7, 3:54 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC3 days
Nov 7, 3:54 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC48 hr
Nov 7, 4:03 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 7, 4:03 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC36 hr
Nov 7, 4:03 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC24 hr

Nearby

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2018Every storm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.