Storm Warning 123, NWS Anchorage, AK

861 
FZAK62 PAFC 080017
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081415-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 mb low Wed afternoon at 57N 170E moves to 60N 179W at 985 
mb by Thu afternoon and then to 58N 177E at 1000 mb by Fri
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft building to 17 to
32 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 21 to 36
ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas
20 to 30 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

530 
FZAK62 PAFC 081221
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090200-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb low at 59N 176E moves to 64N 177W at 1011 mb by Sat
morning. Its front moves into Western Alaska Thu afternoon. A 999 mb
low forms at 58N 174W and moves to 52N 176W at 1001 mb by Sat 
morning. A 1027 mb North Pacific low moves to 57N 167W at 995 mb for
Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 30 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Widespread rain 
and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW after midnight. 
Seas 19 to 29 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

892 
FZAK62 PAFC 081635
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090630-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb low at 59N 176E moves to 64N 177W at 1011 mb by Sat
morning. Its front moves into Western Alaska Thu afternoon. A 999 mb
low forms at 58N 174W and moves to 52N 176W at 1001 mb by Sat 
morning. A 1027 mb North Pacific low moves to 57N 167W at 995 mb for
Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-090630-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 30 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090630-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Widespread rain 
and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090630-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW after midnight. 
Seas 19 to 29 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090630-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
735 AM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

134 
FZAK62 PAFC 090015
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091415-
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 985 mb low at 61N 179W Thu afternoon moves to 64N 174W at 996 mb 
by Fri afternoon with its front moving across the western Aleutians 
through Sat afternoon. A 997 mb low at 50N 155W Sat morning moves to 
55N 160W at 979 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 30 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt becoming SW 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 28 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
315 PM AKST Thu Nov 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

412 
FZAK62 PAFC 091230
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100200-
330 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 991 mb low at 63N 176W moves to 64N 178 at 1012 mb and
dissipates Sat morning. A 997 mb low forms near 58N 179E midday 
Fri and moves to 54N 165W at 978 mb for Sun morning. Its front 
moves across the Aleutians through Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
330 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Snow showers and a
slight chance of thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
330 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain showers, snow showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain showers, snow showers and a slight 
chance of thunderstorms.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
330 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain showers, snow 
showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
330 AM AKST Fri Nov 9 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
642 PM AKST Tue Nov 6 2018

UPDATE TO LONGTERM DISCUSSION

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge continues to drift eastward into the Yukon
Territory while behind it, a broad upper level trough positioned
over the Bering is beginning to move over the northwest part of
the state. Anchoring this trough is a 994 mb surface low situated
just west of Norton Sound. In response, southerly onshore flow is
present across most of Southwest Alaska, which is producing
scattered precipitation and low level stratus.

Looking southward, a North Pacific low has advanced into the Gulf
of Alaska. At the surface and ahead of the low, a leading front
with strong southeasterly winds is gradually lifting to the
northeast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement into the latter half of the
week. It is worth noting that the low moving into the Gulf has a
subtropical connection and there will be warming at low levels due
to this. The different models are varying on how warm it should
get around and near the Gulf. The NAM was the preferred model
overall for this low.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and northerly winds no more than 10 kt should
persist into Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A synoptic pattern shift occurs during the next 24 hours, with
the once dominant ridge across the mainland, shoving off to the
east as a progressive trough takes over. This change brings increased
chances for precipitation across the southern mainland along with
challenges in precipitation type and gale force winds for the
Gulf.

The storm system currently south of Kodiak Island moves a front
along the southern gulf to the northern waters late tonight.
The main issue causing difficulty in defining precipitation type,
is that this warm core system stalls along the eastern Kenai while
a colder core system advances from the west. Precipitation types
will be dependent upon the position of the boundary between them.

Wednesday night through Thursday isolated to scattered showers
will move inland as short waves move ahead of the gulf low. Mixed
precipitation will be possible across the diffuse boundary which
is expected to be stretched along the northern Kenai to the
Chugach Range. Even though there is still uncertainty with the
evolution of this system, accumulations are expected to be light.
The highest snow accumulations are expected along higher elevations
of the northern Kenai to Western Prince William Sound, however narrow
bands of precipitation are possible.

By early Thursday morning the colder air mass from the west
settles across the region changing precipitation types over to all
snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A stalled front draped from Dillingham to Sleetmute will continue
to produce areas of light snow across the southwest interior
through the overnight hours. Closer to the coast, any lingering
precipitation will be in the form of rain showers as the warm,
onshore flow behind the front has increased surface temperatures
into the upper 30s. A deformation zone setting up between the
stalled boundary and a low moving north from the western Gulf will
act to enhance precipitation over the southwest interior later
tonight into Wednesday. The precipitation may begin as a mix of
rain and snow, but change over to all snow as the atmosphere
saturates and colder air begins to wrap into the back side of the
low. Light snow accumulations are possible for locations well
inland such as Sparrevohn and Sleetmute. Conditions then trend
colder and drier Wednesday night into early Thursday as the high
crests over Southwest Alaska. Areas of fog are possible overnight
Wednesday into early Thursday as the stable airmass settles
overhead. A second round of strong winds along the coast and areas
of light snow comes Thursday as another front swings through the
region. This front is fast moving and will weaken as it moves
onshore. Nonetheless, light snow accumulations (1 to 2 inches) are
possible for locations such as Dillingham and Bethel for Thursday.
Snow showers will linger through Thursday night before tapering
off on Friday. Behind the front, high surf and areas of coastal
erosion are possible Thursday night through Friday as prolonged
southwesterly flow with gales develops along the coast behind the
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The first of two strong, Bering lows is currently north of Saint
Matthew Island and will continue to track to north-northeast away
from the forecast area. As it does, the gales and high surf
currently along the coast from Toksook Bay north will diminish.
Underneath the low, a cold and unstable airmass will continue to
produce a few scattered showers overnight from the Pribilofs on
north. Upstream, a ridge of high pressure currently building over
the western Bering and Aleutians will slide east, with the ridge
axis reaching the eastern Aleutians Wednesday. This ridge will
continue to track east and move over west coast Wednesday night in
response to the next Kamchatka low and associated front moving
into the western Bering. Southerly gales will develop along the
front as it slides over western Aleutians Wednesday morning. The
front and gales will propagate east over central Bering and
Aleutians Wednesday afternoon and evening and over the eastern
Bering Thursday morning. The Kamchatka low will also strengthen as
it tracks into the western Bering Wednesday night. As it does,
a large area of westerly gales will overspread much of the Bering
with a smaller area of storm-force situated on the southern
periphery the center of circulation. This low will be of similar
strength and take a similar track to the now departing low,
creating a prolonged westerly fetch across the Bering. Given
this, high surf and coastal erosion are possible from the
Kuskokwim Bay north to Hooper Bay late Thursday through Friday as
the center of circulation makes its closest approach.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

An active pattern will be on tap for the Bering, Aleutians and
Southwest AK Friday to Tuesday. The longwave pattern features
trough bisecting the Bering and a high amplitude ridge from SE AK
to the Yukon Territory. At the surface there is a low East of
Kamchatka and another low south of Kodiak. As time elapses, this
energy will shift eastward. In the beginning of the period there
is good clustering between the latest runs of the
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian Regional. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF
have converged compared to the solutions from 24 hrs ago. However,
given the vagaries models past 96 hrs, blending and hedging is
still required. Saturday looks like it will be driest day this
forecast period for the Anchorage metro area.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 411. Gales 119 120 131 132 150 177-179 185 351 352
412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...PS