Storm Warning 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

615 
FZAK52 PAFC 011144
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-020015-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 mb low at 310 nm southwest of Adak will move to 150 nm
southwest of Dutch Harbor at 960 mb Fri morning. The low will 
then move to 60 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor at 973 mb Sat 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-020015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-020015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 30 kt becoming E 50 kt after 
midnight. Seas 14 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt, Seas 18 ft building to 24 ft in the
afternoon. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 50 kt becoming S 30 
kt in the afternoon, Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-020015-
Bristol Bay-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-020015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt except E 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-020015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-020015-
Unalaska Bay-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-020015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 24 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-020015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-020015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-020015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ176-020015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-020015-
Adak to Kiska-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-020015-
Kiska to Attu-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-020015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-020015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-020015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-020015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 AM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

478 
FZAK52 PAFC 012311
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021230-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 966 mb low 340 nm southeast of Adak moves over Dutch Harbor
at 964 mb Fri afternoon. The low then moves into the Gulf Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-021230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 30 kt becoming E 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 40 kt
becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021230-
Bristol Bay-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 9 
ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021230-
Unalaska Bay-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt by late evening. 
Seas building to 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021230-
Adak to Kiska-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021230-
Kiska to Attu-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt in the evening increasing to 35 kt. Seas 12 
ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-021230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
311 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

401 
FZAK52 PAFC 020556 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

Updated 170 171 172

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021830-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 966 mb low 340 nm southeast of Adak moves over Dutch Harbor
at 964 mb Fri afternoon. The low then moves into the Gulf Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-021830-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.  Rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021830-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 30 kt becoming E 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 40 kt
becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft. Rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 21 ft. Rain. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021830-
Bristol Bay-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.  Seas
4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. 
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021830-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021830-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Unalaska...E wind 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt 
diminishing to 40 kt late. W of Unalaska...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 
ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021830-
Unalaska Bay-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt with gusts to 45 kt increasing to 35 kt
with gusts to 50 kt by midnight. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt
after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021830-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt becoming SE 25 kt 
late. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft.
Rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021830-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021830-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021830-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021830-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021830-
Adak to Kiska-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021830-
Kiska to Attu-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021830-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021830-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt in the evening increasing to 35 kt. Seas
12  ft. 
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021830-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-021830-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
956 PM AKDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

090 
FZAK52 PAFC 021148
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030015-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 957 mb low 90 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor will move to 80 nm 
southwest of Sand Point at 971 mb Sat morning. The low will then 
move into the southwestern Gulf at 988 mb Sun morning. A front 
will move over the western Aleutians Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-030015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-030015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 40 kt
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-030015-
Bristol Bay-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-030015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt except NE 35 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-030015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ171-030015-
Unalaska Bay-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-030015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-030015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-030015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-030015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-030015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-030015-
Adak to Kiska-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-030015-
Kiska to Attu-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-030015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ180-030015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-030015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ185-030015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
348 AM AKDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKDT Wed Oct 31 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A ridge of high pressure stretches from the western Gulf into the
eastern Bering. An inverted trough is extending through the
western Aleutians from an area of low pressure located well south of
Adak. The dry air associated with the area of high pressure was well-
captured by this morning's sounding from Cold Bay.

The subsidence behind yesterdays trough that crossed southwest
and southcentral Alaska was captured by the King Salmon, Kodiak,
and Anchorage upper-air flights as well. With this in mind, it's
no surprise that fairly decent fog and stratus coverage has been
observed across portions of the southwest and southcentral. This is
being locally aided by a moisture flux off the snow pack helping to
strengthen the inversions.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF models remain in good agreement
with the Canadian Global an outlier (similar to the last few
numerical runs) at both the surface and mid-levels. There are just
slight differences in location and placement of the pressure
fields. As such, forecast confidence is a little higher than
average. The main forecast challenge will be with the track, and
strength of a deepening area of surface low pressure as it treks
towards/across the central Aleutians, before getting absorbed by a
much stronger storm approaching the east central Aleutians.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will predominately prevail
at the terminal over the next 24 hours. However, there may be some
brief reductions in visibility to 1/2 mile or lower with ceiling
near or under 300 feet. Confidence in this is moderate at best as
the fog/stratus will play tag with the airfield as it advects
down the Cook Inlet from the Knik Arm. Area web cams and
observations have already shown hints at this occurring.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Generally dry and cool conditions will prevail across Southcentral
over the next couple of days. Upper ridging will bring relatively
stable conditions today giving rise to widespread stratus and some
fog over the Copper River Basin with patches of the same across
portions of the Anchorage Bowl/Knik Arm today. The stratus and fog
will mix out some in places in the Copper River Basin as pressure
gradients increase and produce locally gusty winds tonight and
Thursday. The threat of stratus and fog will likely continue into
Thursday across the Anchorage Bowl, particularly over north and
west Anchorage where fairly low visibilities may occur.

As alluded to, pressure gradients will strengthen tonight and
continue into Thursday. This will give rise to gusty outflow winds
across the North Gulf Coast, Thompson Pass, as well as, the
Matanuska Valley. A low skirting to the east across the southern
Gulf will bring gales to the offshore marine waters tonight and
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as a ridge shifts across
the eastern Bering to the central mainland. Low clouds and fog
this morning are expected to improve this afternoon. Patchy fog
is possible again Thursday morning as a stable air mass
establishes across the region, however dry offshore flow will be a
strong limiting factor. Light and variable winds this morning
will become east to northeast as the ridge center moves across the
interior. The next front advances across the Alaska Peninsula
Thursday night into Friday with rain and gusty east winds
developing along the boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An stacked storm system is organizing just south of the eastern
Aleutians this morning and will slowly progress northward into the
southern Bering this evening. Easterly winds increase to gale
strength for marines as the boundary swings north. The low shears
apart tonight as it slams into the ridge ahead of it. Another
rapidly organizing low in the North Pacific tracks south of the
central Aleutians today and turns northward, following a similar
track as the low today. However this storm system wraps up and
lifts north as a more powerful storm, with the surface low
expected to deepen to 960 mb or lower. The front with this system
moves to the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Thursday
night. Gale force easterly winds will gust to storm force along
the boundary. There is still some uncertainty with the track and strength
of this system and should be monitored for updates.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The extended period begins Friday evening with an upper-level
ridge of high pressure over the mainland pinching off from the
main flow as it retreats to the north. This movement is in
response to the eastward progression of a mature low situated near
the AKPEN. An occluded front attached to the low lifts into the
northern Gulf from the southwest, with areas of easterly gales
moving toward the southcentral coast. The front is then expected
to weaken as it stalls along the coast for Saturday. Guidance
remains in decent agreement through Saturday, with the NAM, GFS,
and EC all suggesting this outcome. The outlier is with the
Canadian which tries to bring a weaker low along with the
occlusion through the Gulf to the southeast coast by Saturday.
Based on the overall consensus of the other models (deterministic
and ensemble), this is has been discounted in favor of the others.

Uncertainty ratchets up quite a bit after Saturday. The 06z and
12z GFS runs were on par with the EC runs and its GEFS
counterpart bringing the parent low into the Gulf on Sunday. The
EC was faster by about 12 hours with the track of the low toward
the southeast coast while the GFS weakened the low into more of
an open wave. The 18z GFS, however, has the more EC-like closed
low, but with the track hugging the southcentral coastline. So
while exact track and timing is still uncertain, there is high
confidence of inclement weather along the southern coast and
northern Gulf through Sunday.

Any remaining confidence in the models going into early next week
is then completely eroded by how the GFS and EC handle the upper-
level dynamics upstream over the Bering. The EC wants to build a
ridge between the aforementioned low and the long-wave trough over
the Bering. The ridge is then shifted east over the northern Gulf
and southern mainland for Monday and Tuesday as the Bering low
deepens and the ridge amplifies. The GFS, on the other hand, has
kept consistent with a zonal pattern, allowing the upper-level
shortwaves to progress east across the forecast area. The first
comes across the Aleutians beginning Saturday, reaching the
western Gulf on Monday and continuing to impact the southern
mainland through mid- week. The second impacts Southwest Alaska
late Monday with the third moving into the eastern Bering on
Tuesday. Overall, the long-term forecast beyond the weekend is
weighted more toward the GFS solution given that it is more in
agreement with ensemble guidance and consistent with previous
runs.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 155 165 170 171 172 174 179

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...TM