Storm Warning 107, NWS Anchorage, AK

762 
FZAK51 PAFC 151114
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-152345-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front sweeps across the Gulf and North Gulf Coast into Southeast
Alaska through Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ119-152345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ120-152345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ121-152345-
Resurrection Bay-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-152345-
Prince William Sound-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-152345-
Port Valdez-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-152345-
Valdez Narrows-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-152345-
Valdez Arm-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-152345-
Passage Canal-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt by late
morning then increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-152345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-152345-
Barren Islands East-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ132-152345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ136-152345-
Chiniak Bay-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ137-152345-
Marmot Bay-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ138-152345-
Shelikof Strait-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ139-152345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ140-152345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-152345-
Kachemak Bay-
314 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
After several days of a Bering low dominating the pattern there
looks to be a change with a deep low south of the Aleutians
becoming the focus as the Bering low weakens. The front associated
with the deeper low is starting to push into the Alaska Peninsula
and is bringing rain with it. Further east, over Southcentral
Alaska, weak ridging has moved in which has helped clear out cloud
cover over some areas.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in good agreement with the main synoptic
features through the mid term. However, there are some minor
differences tracking a front through the Gulf today. These
differences look to have little effect on impacts for southern
Alaska with the exception of how much rain Kodiak Island will see.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Even though
the setup is decent for fog development with light winds, abundant
low level moisture and ridging overhead, no fog is forecasted at
this time. This is in large part due to the cloud cover over the
area that is inhibiting temps from dropping.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will be over the area today, for a period of benign
and dry weather. Southerly flow aloft will return tonight, and
strengthen on Monday. A weak front will approach the north Gulf
coast tonight as this southerly flow begins. This will bring
increasing winds to the Gulf waters, and a chance of precipitation
to the coast. A considerably stronger front will push north to the
coast Monday morning. This will spread rain over most of
Southcentral during the day. The flow aloft will be quite strong,
with a moist "atmospheric river" pointed at the area by afternoon.
Rain will continue over most of the area through Monday night.
Most of the precipitation will be over the coast and coastal
mountains from Prince William Sound eastward, where amounts of two
to five inches are possible Monday and Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal system approaching the coast is currently increasing
southeasterly flow across Southwest Alaska. The frontal system
will reach the coast this evening with precipitation spreading
onshore tonight through Monday. As the front nears and moves
onshore, winds will continue to increase, particularly the east-
southeasterly gap winds out of the passes in the Alaska/Aleutian
Range. As the upper level low moves north to become stationary
offshore of southwest Alaska, showery weather will persist through
mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The strong low south of the Aleutians has now become vertically
stacked near 50N 170W early this morning. The low will continue to
track gradually east northeast through this evening then turn more
northerly tonight, lifting north across the Alaska Peninsula on
Monday. The large low will then become established over the
eastern Bering, in between Bristol Bay and the Pribilof Islands
where it will remain through midweek. Troughs rotating around the
low will bring numerous showers to much of the Bering and
Aleutians, while closer to the center of the low more unstable
air will bring the potential for isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

At the onset of the forecast period, the longwave pattern features
ridging over Copper River Basin, a trough over SW Alaska and the
AKPEN, ridging over the western Bering and a new low near Sapporo
Japan. Anticipate a very progressive pattern. By 00z Friday, the
model guidance starts to diverge with the low near Kodiak/AKPEN
and the cyclone near Kamchatka. Given the lack of run to run
continuity and the lack of model consensus, the track and the
timing of both lows is still uncertain. Generally expecting wet
and unsettled weather with both systems. Stay tuned for more
details.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...130 131 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 174 175 176
				 177 180 185 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...PS