Gale Warning 534, NWS Anchorage, AK

707 
FZAK61 PAFC 151108
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
308 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-160145-
308 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front sweeps across the Gulf and North Gulf Coast into Southeast
Alaska through Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ351-160145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
308 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.

$$

PKZ352-160145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
308 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 20 to 33 ft.

$$

474 
FZAK61 PAFC 152354
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-161315-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A very strong front will move from the North Pacific into the Gulf
Coast by Tue morning. Another trough will move into the Western Gulf
Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-161315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-161315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

320 
FZAK61 PAFC 161152
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-170030-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A strong front sweeps across the North Gulf Coast and Eastern 
Gulf into Southeast Alaska by Thu morning. Several troughs move
through the Western Gulf through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ351-170030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-170030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
After several days of a Bering low dominating the pattern there
looks to be a change with a deep low south of the Aleutians
becoming the focus as the Bering low weakens. The front associated
with the deeper low is starting to push into the Alaska Peninsula
and is bringing rain with it. Further east, over Southcentral
Alaska, weak ridging has moved in which has helped clear out cloud
cover over some areas.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in good agreement with the main synoptic
features through the mid term. However, there are some minor
differences tracking a front through the Gulf today. These
differences look to have little effect on impacts for southern
Alaska with the exception of how much rain Kodiak Island will see.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Even though
the setup is decent for fog development with light winds, abundant
low level moisture and ridging overhead, no fog is forecasted at
this time. This is in large part due to the cloud cover over the
area that is inhibiting temps from dropping.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will be over the area today, for a period of benign
and dry weather. Southerly flow aloft will return tonight, and
strengthen on Monday. A weak front will approach the north Gulf
coast tonight as this southerly flow begins. This will bring
increasing winds to the Gulf waters, and a chance of precipitation
to the coast. A considerably stronger front will push north to the
coast Monday morning. This will spread rain over most of
Southcentral during the day. The flow aloft will be quite strong,
with a moist "atmospheric river" pointed at the area by afternoon.
Rain will continue over most of the area through Monday night.
Most of the precipitation will be over the coast and coastal
mountains from Prince William Sound eastward, where amounts of two
to five inches are possible Monday and Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal system approaching the coast is currently increasing
southeasterly flow across Southwest Alaska. The frontal system
will reach the coast this evening with precipitation spreading
onshore tonight through Monday. As the front nears and moves
onshore, winds will continue to increase, particularly the east-
southeasterly gap winds out of the passes in the Alaska/Aleutian
Range. As the upper level low moves north to become stationary
offshore of southwest Alaska, showery weather will persist through
mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The strong low south of the Aleutians has now become vertically
stacked near 50N 170W early this morning. The low will continue to
track gradually east northeast through this evening then turn more
northerly tonight, lifting north across the Alaska Peninsula on
Monday. The large low will then become established over the
eastern Bering, in between Bristol Bay and the Pribilof Islands
where it will remain through midweek. Troughs rotating around the
low will bring numerous showers to much of the Bering and
Aleutians, while closer to the center of the low more unstable
air will bring the potential for isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

At the onset of the forecast period, the longwave pattern features
ridging over Copper River Basin, a trough over SW Alaska and the
AKPEN, ridging over the western Bering and a new low near Sapporo
Japan. Anticipate a very progressive pattern. By 00z Friday, the
model guidance starts to diverge with the low near Kodiak/AKPEN
and the cyclone near Kamchatka. Given the lack of run to run
continuity and the lack of model consensus, the track and the
timing of both lows is still uncertain. Generally expecting wet
and unsettled weather with both systems. Stay tuned for more
details.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...130 131 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 174 175 176
				 177 180 185 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...PS