Gale Warning 581, NWS Anchorage, AK

138 
FZAK51 PAFC 141859 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Updated zones 119 120 121 125 131

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-150400-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the central Gulf will move into Southeast Alaska Sun
evening. A second front will enter the Central Gulf Sun night and
extend from the North Gulf Coast through Central Gulf by Mon 
afternoon. This front will remain along the north Gulf coast through
Mon night bringing a barrier jet and much stronger winds to the 
North Gulf coast and Prince William Sound.

$$

PKZ119-150400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-150400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-150400-
Resurrection Bay-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-150400-
Prince William Sound-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-150400-
Port Valdez-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-150400-
Valdez Narrows-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-150400-
Valdez Arm-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-150400-
Passage Canal-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-150400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-150400-
Barren Islands East-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ132-150400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt by late morning. Seas
9  ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ136-150400-
Chiniak Bay-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3  ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ137-150400-
Marmot Bay-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3  ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-150400-
Shelikof Strait-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3  ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ139-150400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-150400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-150400-
Kachemak Bay-
1059 AM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

897 
FZAK51 PAFC 142359
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-151300-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the central Gulf will move into the eastern Gulf Sun 
evening. A second front will enter the central Gulf Sun night and 
extend from the North Gulf Coast through central Gulf by Mon 
afternoon. This front will remain along the north Gulf coast through 
Mon night bringing a barrier jet and much stronger winds to the North
Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound.

$$

PKZ119-151300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt except SE 50 kt near the coast. Seas 21 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ120-151300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ121-151300-
Resurrection Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-151300-
Prince William Sound-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft 
building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-151300-
Port Valdez-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-151300-
Valdez Narrows-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-151300-
Valdez Arm-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-151300-
Passage Canal-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-151300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-151300-
Barren Islands East-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ132-151300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ136-151300-
Chiniak Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ137-151300-
Marmot Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ138-151300-
Shelikof Strait-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ139-151300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ140-151300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-151300-
Kachemak Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level semi-stationary low over the eastern Bering, that
once brought significant weather to southern Alaska, is shifting
northward and is beginning to weaken. South easterly flow aloft is
creating drier conditions and thus, patchy skies lie over the
central and eastern Aleutians as well as the western mainland.
The next Bering low is on the way as it has moved just south of
the western Aleutians from Kamchatka. This low sits in a favorable
jet position in the left exit region where winds are approaching
110 kt. This low is deepening as it moves eastward. A second
section of the jet stream at 300 mb is ridging over eastern Alaska
with a jet max sitting over Prince William Sound. The placement
of the jet combined with residual energy from the low in the
eastern Bering is increasing instability over Southcentral and the
AKPEN.

At the surface, convective style rainfall continues to fall along
the western coast as the surface low slowly migrates northward.
Yesterday's afternoon sounding in King Salmon showed high
instability which aided in several thunderstorms popping up over
Bristol Bay Friday evening. Another front, associated with the
approaching Bering low, has moved over the western Aleutians and
is brining cloud cover to the area. In the east, heavy rain in
Southcentral is dissipating as the warm front moves inland.
Satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover over most of
Southcentral and the eastern Gulf while the west remains patchy
ahead of the front associated with the next surface low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be in excellent agreement with synoptic
features through roughly Tuesday. Differences at that time revolve
around the progression of an anchored low in the Bering and the
timing/intensity of waves rotating around it, as well as the
weakening of the northwest Pacific ridge. By Thursday, models are
struggling to have any consistent forecast messaging.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...the airfield will flirt with occasional IFR conditions
early on this afternoon as the rain moves out of the area.
Otherwise persistent MVFR cigs are expected into the evening. If
clearing skies are realized before the evening, fog chances
increase. At this point, expect IFR VSBY and CIG in fog and low
clouds Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

A brief period of calm weather is in store for Southcentral Alaska
for the next 24 hours or so as upper level ridging builds into the
area. Clearing skies behind today's rains are gradually making
their way eastward across the area. Winds are also rapidly
diminishing as well. Thus, with very recent rainfall, clearing
skies, and diminishing winds in place, many of the needed
ingredients for fog are now present. Areas of fog are in the
forecast for nearly all of Southcentral as a result. Most of the
area should see a good amount of sunshine for the day Sunday as
well. Enjoy the sunshine Sunday because it doesn't return to the
forecast after that for quite a long time.

A large low tracking eastward across the Bering will bring a front
across the Gulf and into Southcentral Sunday night into Monday.
As usual, Kodiak will be first to see rain starting up Sunday
afternoon, and then the rain will spread northward along all of
the Gulf Coast by Monday morning. The usual downsloping winds
through the day Monday may help to keep Anchorage and portions of
the western Kenai Peninsula drier for much of the day, but the
rainfall will be around the area, affecting the western Kenai and
north through the Susitna Valley. Turnagain Arm and the Hillside
should not see winds as strong as they have been the past couple
events, with 30-40 mph winds currently expected. The winds will
diminish by Monday evening allowing nearly all areas to get in on
the rainfall action during the overnight hours, before slowly
diminishing in coverage Tuesday. Ongoing onshore flow from the
southwest will continue through the day Tuesday, making off-and-on
showers a likelihood for all areas throughout the day.

Behind the front, for a period of about 24 hours starting midday
Monday, there will be a moisture feed straight out of the tropics
that is expected to impact Prince William Sound and points east.
This feature we meteorologists call an "atmospheric river".
Atmospheric rivers are known to bring periods of heavy rain to
areas in their path, and high rainfall totals can be possible if
it remains in one place for too long. Rainfall amounts of 3-4
inches for Valdez and 4-5 inches in Cordova are possible through
midday Tuesday, with the heaviest rain expected late Monday
afternoon through Monday night. Residents of those areas should be
prepared for rising river levels to bankfull along with the
potential for localized flooding. Stay tuned to future forecasts
for more information.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
General showery conditions will continue tonight as energy
rotates around an area of low pressure in the Bering. Weak
ridging may lead to some areas of inland fog this evening and
overnight, but another approaching front will see the return to
southerly winds and rain Sunday evening and into Monday. Highs
through Monday continue to be unseasonably high, ranging 7 to 10
degrees above normal. Overnight lows should normally be in the
upper 20s bu mid October, but the cloud cover and warm wind will
keep overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Water levels will remain high along the SW Coast into Sunday. Due
to the duration of S-SW flow along the coast over the past few
days, water has been pushed up against coastal areas, mainly the
Kuskokwim Bay. Water levels could rise 2-3 feet above the normal
highest tide line on tonight's high tide. Water levels should then
slowly lower late Sun into the early part of the week as the flow
turns offshore. Please take caution if you are in or around
coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A weakening low in the northern Bering will be replaced by a
slowly deepening low that will move from near Atka to just east
of the Pribilof Islands by Monday. The back (western) side of
this low will see fairly strong northerly gale force winds across
the sea, and continued windy and rain conditions along the
Aleutian chain. To the east of the low, conditions will be
similar, though winds will be a little weaker and out of the
south.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

At the onset of the forecast period, the longwave pattern features
ridging over Copper River Basin, a trough over SW Alaska and the
AKPEN, ridging over the western Bering and a new low near Sapporo
Japan. Anticipate a very progressive pattern. By 00z Friday, the
model guidance starts to diverge with the low near Kodiak/AKPEN
and the cyclone near Kamchatka. Given the lack of run to run
continuity and the lack of model consensus, the track and the
timing of both lows is still uncertain. Generally expecting wet
and unsettled weather with both systems. Stay tuned for more
details.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 130 131 155 160 165 170-178 180 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS/RJA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PS