Small Craft Advisory 933, NWS Anchorage, AK

551 
FZAK52 PAFC 260334 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-261615-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front over the central Aleutians moves eastward and weakens
through Tue afternoon. A 984 mb low Mon afternoon 440 nm west of
Shemya moves to 150 nm east of Adak at 994 mb by Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-261615-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-261615-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-261615-
Bristol Bay-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-261615-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-261615-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-261615-
Unalaska Bay-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.  and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-261615-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-261615-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.  Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-261615-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-261615-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-261615-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-261615-
Adak to Kiska-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-261615-
Kiska to Attu-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-261615-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-261615-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-261615-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-261615-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
634 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

822 
FZAK52 PAFC 261246
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-270145-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front over the central Aleutians moves eastward and weakens Tue
afternoon. A 990 mb Kamchatka low moves 190 nm northwest of Adak at
996 mb Tue morning and then moves 120 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor 
at 995 mb Tue night. A front enters the western Bering Tue night.

$$

PKZ150-270145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-270145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes in the
morning. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt except NW 40 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-270145-
Bristol Bay-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-270145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-270145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-270145-
Unalaska Bay-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-270145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ173-270145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-270145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ175-270145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-270145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-270145-
Adak to Kiska-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-270145-
Kiska to Attu-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft after
midnight. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-270145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-270145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-270145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-270145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
346 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The overall weather pattern across the state this morning is best
described as active. An upper level longwave trough is centered
over the Bering and extends southward into the Gulf. Two ridges
flank each side of this trough - one over the Yukon Territory and
the second is currently building in over the western Aleutians.
Anchoring the longwave trough is a low in the Gulf centered
roughly 200 nm south of Kodiak Island. The leading front
associated with this low is bringing storm-force winds and
precipitation to the central Gulf.

Meanwhile, remnants of an earlier surface low over the Gulf are
spreading in across Southcentral this morning. Radar imagery
indicates precipitation is falling across the northern Gulf coast
and over the Susitna Valley, with temperatures cold enough for
snow in most locations. Surface observations indicate
southeasterly gale-force winds across Prince William Sound with
higher gusts in channeled gaps and passes.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
As discussed the past few days, models have had a hard time
getting a handle on the weather, especially for systems moving
through the Gulf of AK. Models are consistent enough over the
Aleutians to have a confident forecast over the Bering. However,
the next incoming system in the Gulf of AK is once again being
handled poorly. The NAM and the EC are moving the low center north
at about the same speed, with the GFS lagging quite a bit behind
them. At this time, there is little fidelity on which solution
will be correct. This will make for another difficult forecast the
next couple of days as this next low approaches the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light snow currently occurring at the airport is expected
to taper off within the next couple of hours. A brief break in
the weather is expected today, with windy but VFR conditions
present. The next round of weather will impact the airport
tonight, with temperatures warming incoming precipitation into
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weather front over Southcentral early this morning will exit to
the north by late morning. Precipitation over the area will
briefly diminish. Warmer air will usher in behind this front, with
precipitation type expected to be a mix of frozen, freezing, and
liquid over the inland areas, and changing to all rain for the
coastal areas. Another stronger front associated with a low south
of Kodiak will push to the Gulf Coast by late morning. This will
bring increasing precipitation to coast, as well as very strong
winds over the marine areas. The strong gradient will limit
precipitation for many inland areas in the lee of mountain ranges
(downslope drying). A surface low will form along this front over
the southeast Gulf this evening. This low will move to the north
Gulf coast late tonight. This will decrease the downslope drying,
and precipitation chances will increase for inland areas. The
precipitation type is a challenge to forecast, as the air aloft
is quite warm but some cold air may linger near the surface. Many
areas will again see a mix. The surface low and the front will
weaken and move north of the area by Monday afternoon. The main
low south of Kodiak Island will move north Monday through Monday
night. Upper level heights will drop, and cooler air aloft will
seep into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A front associated with a strong low in the southwestern Gulf
continues to lift northward over Southwest Alaska. Warm air
associated with this front will spread in from southeast to northwest
bringing variable precipitation types across Southwest beginning
Sun morning. As the low moves northward and inland by Tue morning,
cold air advection on the backside of the low will continue to
propagate eastward, allowing for precipitation to continue over
Southwest. With colder air already in place from the onset of the
event, snow is likely across the northwestern Kuskokwim Valley
while warmer temperatures to the southeast along the AKPEN and
Bristol Bay coast will bring a mix of rain and freezing rain.
Northwesterly flow will persist through Tue night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Strong northerly flow will persist over much of the Bering as a
ridge of high pressure builds in through Mon afternoon. This
northerly flow will allow for continued cold air advection over
the Bering and will also deliver strong gusty winds across the
Aleutians and western Alaska Peninsula, especially through the
usual channeled gaps and passes. On the heels of this building
ridge is a Kamchatka low. The leading edge of its frontal system
approaches the western Aleutians by Mon evening. The associated
surface low will gradually weaken as it tracks east through the
western Aleutians Tuesday then turns to the southeast to track
south of the central Aleutians Tuesday night.

&&

The forecast period commences with a broad longwave trough across
the Bering, the North Pacific and the Gulf Of Alaska with a ridge
axis over the Western Bering. At the onset of the forecast
period, the models have a closed low at 500 mb near Atka and
another closed low at 500 mb in the western Gulf (near Kodiak).
There are numerous shortwaves in the base of the trough axis. As
the forecast period elapses, the model divergence becomes more
amplified. Generally, expecting an active pattern for the Bering
and the Gulf of Alaska. However, due to the degraded performance
of the models as of late, this forecast package reflects a blend
of models. Even with the blending and the hedging, categorically
there are confidence issues with the timing of the precipitation
shields for each storm, the timing of the gusty winds and the
tracks of the lows.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 120 125.
         Gale Warning 130 131 132 136 137 138 139
         140 150 155 172 351 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO/BJB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
LONG TERM...PS