Gale Warning 720, NWS Anchorage, AK

136 
FZAK51 PAFC 270040
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-271345-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front pushes into the North Gulf Coast through Tue morning. A 
964 mb low 180 nm South of Kodiak City moves to 25 nm Southeast of
Homer at 976 mb for Tue afternoon and continues inland. Its front
sweeps the Gulf into the North Gulf Coast and Southeast Alaska by
Wed afternoon. A front extends into the Western Gulf for Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-271345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-271345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-271345-
Resurrection Bay-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S wind 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-271345-
Prince William Sound-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-271345-
Port Valdez-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain and snow showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-271345-
Valdez Narrows-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-271345-
Valdez Arm-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt except southeast 20 kt near Bligh Reef. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-271345-
Passage Canal-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-271345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-271345-
Barren Islands East-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-271345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 30 kt...except NE 20 kt N of 
Dangerous Cape. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-271345-
Chiniak Bay-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-271345-
Marmot Bay-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-271345-
Shelikof Strait-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-271345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-271345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-271345-
Kachemak Bay-
340 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A powerful Pacific jet stream is carving out across the Pacific as
seen by the impressive satellite signature. The left exit region
of the strong 185 knot upper jet streak has slung a strong 950 hpa
low into the Gulf of Alaska southwest of Kodiak Island with
another secondary low ripping off that upper level jet streak now,
farther east in the southern Gulf of Alaska. The sprawling storm
force warm front is now rapidly approaching the North Gulf Coast,
with some of the warm air advection precipitation also wrapping
into Bristol Bay and across the Western Alaska Range. Farther
west, strong cyclonic northerly flow over the Bering exists with
moderate cold air advection wrapping behind a stationary arctic
trough (with embedded shortwaves rotating in from Eastern Siberia).
This is promoting mixed rain/snow showers as far south as the
Pribs and Shemya/Adak even with the still warm SSTs.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

After struggling for multiple days with the track of strong lows
moving toward the Gulf Coast and precipitation moving into
Southwest Alaska, the models are now handling the basic features
of the pattern much better. This is likely due to the fact that
all the "major" components of the weather pattern are now in place
and are being remotely sensed instead of just being simulated
projections. With that said, there are still small discrepancies
in the models with respect to the small mesoscale low along the
frontal zone moving into Prince William Sound Monday morning with
timing being the largest discrepancy. With that said, the small
differences do not yield nearly as much uncertainty as the
previous days, so this forecast will use a blend of the NAM and
GFS models. This will also mean more confidence regarding
rain/freezing rain moving into parts of interior Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska as the warm air aloft surges inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Sprinkles are possible this evening near the terminal
before downslope flow increases and likely ends that threat by
later this evening. Light rain will then likely move back in
late tonight through Monday morning as low level cross barrier
flow weakens and an upper level short-wave trough approaches.
Model guidance has really been struggling with details of this
trough. Thus, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in when the
most likely period of rain will be. In any case, would expect
a period of MVFR ceilings if/when rain does move in.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

This evening's forecast is a very tricky one across Southcentral
as numerous pieces to the weather puzzle are all coming in and
departing at different times. One observation we have seen so far
is the rain "slopping" over the mountains is already reaching the
ground in Anchorage, a concern because the down-Inlet flow can
sometimes keep Anchorage dry. With that, the next piece are
temperatures. So far, most of Southcentral is at or just above
freezing, which in turn has led to most areas that are getting
precipitation seeing a plain rain. That said, the usual cold
spots, such as Campbell Creek, the Eagle River valley, and the
Parks Highway near Willow remain just below freezing, which may
make for slick conditions as the rain moves into the area.

On Monday morning as an upper level wave combines with
diminishing down-Inlet flow, the rain rates will intensify,
especially through Anchorage and along the Glenn Highway. A
steadier rain will contribute to the slick conditions as
temperatures hold in the mid-30s through the morning commute. With
the area south of Talkeetna expected to remain below freezing for
much of the rainfall event, a Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect until noon for up to one tenth of an inch of ice
accumulation, after which the rain will lift to the north.

A new area of low pressure moves into the southwestern Gulf on
Monday afternoon. Associated rainfall will intensify through
Kodiak Monday afternoon and evening. The center of the low will
track northward, hugging the coast of Kodiak Island Monday night,
then drift northward into southern Cook Inlet Tuesday afternoon.
This slow track will maintain a southeasterly feed of warm air
across Southcentral on both Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday night is when things may get interesting as the low taps
much colder air wrapping around the south side of the low as it
tracks up Cook Inlet. The timing of the cold air reaching the
western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su Valleys will be critical,
but there is at least a chance there could be a small accumulating
snow in these areas. What appears more likely however is that the
precipitation falls mostly as rain, and then the cold air comes
in at the very end resulting in a brief hit of non-accumulating
snow. Either way, behind the low on Wednesday things turn much
colder area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Wednesday)

The main focus continues to be on precipitation types/amounts, as
a very sharp warm front retrogrades westward from a low that was
positioned to the southeast of Sand Point. This can easily be seen
in the recent observations as Iliamna was at 45 degrees while New
Stuyahok was at 19 degrees. This surface front will stall or
slowly creep westward through Monday morning. Meanwhile, an
elevated warm front around 4000 feet above the surface is forecast
to make it to just west of Dillingham, allowing a wedge of warm
air to overlay the colder surface for locations west of a Levelock
to New Stuyahok. As a result, snow will gradually change to
freezing rain, then to rain for these areas with a few inches of
snow and up to two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation expected.

The surface low will gradually trek northeast, reaching the
northern Cook Inlet by Tuesday evening. Much colder air will
drop southeast across the region, changing any precipitation back
to snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Wednesday)

A wet and unsettled pattern will continue over the next few days.
Cyclonic flow around a Kodiak low will keep a showery pattern in
place for the eastern Bering and AKPEN. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure will move from the western Pacific to near Shemya tonight,
then will track just north of the chain through Wednesday. Look
for widespread precipitation, sustained gale force winds, and an
increasing sea state to develop. Another low will enter the
western Bering Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday Nov 29th through
Sunday Dec 2nd)...

The forecast period commences with a long-wave trough across
Western Alaska, the North Pacific and the Gulf Of Alaska with a
ridge axis over the Central Bering. At the onset of the forecast
period, the models have a surface low south of Kodiak, a low near
the Norton Sound and another low with an elongated occlusion near
Kamchatka. The GFS, NAM and ECMWF have these surface features in
the same general location by 12z Thursday. But these systems are
not in sync amongst the models. As the forecast period elapses,
the model divergence becomes more amplified. Generally speaking,
expecting a progressive and unsettled pattern for the Bering and
the Gulf Of Alaska. However, due to the systemic run to run
consistency issues, this forecast package reflects a blend of
models. Even with the blending and the hedging, categorically
there are confidence issues with the timing of the precipitation
shields for each storm, the p-type category and the tracks of the
lows. Stay tuned for more details.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 145 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119.
	     Gale Warning 125 130 155 172.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...PS