Gale Warning 718, NWS Anchorage, AK

649 
FZAK51 PAFC 261234
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-270200-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 957 mb low 200 nm south of Sitkinak moves 60 nm northeast of
Kodiak City at 971 mb Mon night and then moves inland Tue 
afternoon. A front enters the western Gulf Tue night.

$$

PKZ119-270200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Near the 
coast, SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-270200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-270200-
Resurrection Bay-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S wind 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-270200-
Prince William Sound-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-270200-
Port Valdez-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-270200-
Valdez Narrows-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-270200-
Valdez Arm-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-270200-
Passage Canal-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-270200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-270200-
Barren Islands East-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-270200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt except NW 25 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-270200-
Chiniak Bay-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-270200-
Marmot Bay-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-270200-
Shelikof Strait-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ139-270200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-270200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-270200-
Kachemak Bay-
334 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The overall weather pattern across the state this morning is best
described as active. An upper level longwave trough is centered
over the Bering and extends southward into the Gulf. Two ridges
flank each side of this trough - one over the Yukon Territory and
the second is currently building in over the western Aleutians.
Anchoring the longwave trough is a low in the Gulf centered
roughly 200 nm south of Kodiak Island. The leading front
associated with this low is bringing storm-force winds and
precipitation to the central Gulf.

Meanwhile, remnants of an earlier surface low over the Gulf are
spreading in across Southcentral this morning. Radar imagery
indicates precipitation is falling across the northern Gulf coast
and over the Susitna Valley, with temperatures cold enough for
snow in most locations. Surface observations indicate
southeasterly gale-force winds across Prince William Sound with
higher gusts in channeled gaps and passes.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
As discussed the past few days, models have had a hard time
getting a handle on the weather, especially for systems moving
through the Gulf of AK. Models are consistent enough over the
Aleutians to have a confident forecast over the Bering. However,
the next incoming system in the Gulf of AK is once again being
handled poorly. The NAM and the EC are moving the low center north
at about the same speed, with the GFS lagging quite a bit behind
them. At this time, there is little fidelity on which solution
will be correct. This will make for another difficult forecast the
next couple of days as this next low approaches the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light snow currently occurring at the airport is expected
to taper off within the next couple of hours. A brief break in
the weather is expected today, with windy but VFR conditions
present. The next round of weather will impact the airport
tonight, with temperatures warming incoming precipitation into
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weather front over Southcentral early this morning will exit to
the north by late morning. Precipitation over the area will
briefly diminish. Warmer air will usher in behind this front, with
precipitation type expected to be a mix of frozen, freezing, and
liquid over the inland areas, and changing to all rain for the
coastal areas. Another stronger front associated with a low south
of Kodiak will push to the Gulf Coast by late morning. This will
bring increasing precipitation to coast, as well as very strong
winds over the marine areas. The strong gradient will limit
precipitation for many inland areas in the lee of mountain ranges
(downslope drying). A surface low will form along this front over
the southeast Gulf this evening. This low will move to the north
Gulf coast late tonight. This will decrease the downslope drying,
and precipitation chances will increase for inland areas. The
precipitation type is a challenge to forecast, as the air aloft
is quite warm but some cold air may linger near the surface. Many
areas will again see a mix. The surface low and the front will
weaken and move north of the area by Monday afternoon. The main
low south of Kodiak Island will move north Monday through Monday
night. Upper level heights will drop, and cooler air aloft will
seep into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A front associated with a strong low in the southwestern Gulf
continues to lift northward over Southwest Alaska. Warm air
associated with this front will spread in from southeast to northwest
bringing variable precipitation types across Southwest beginning
Sun morning. As the low moves northward and inland by Tue morning,
cold air advection on the backside of the low will continue to
propagate eastward, allowing for precipitation to continue over
Southwest. With colder air already in place from the onset of the
event, snow is likely across the northwestern Kuskokwim Valley
while warmer temperatures to the southeast along the AKPEN and
Bristol Bay coast will bring a mix of rain and freezing rain.
Northwesterly flow will persist through Tue night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Strong northerly flow will persist over much of the Bering as a
ridge of high pressure builds in through Mon afternoon. This
northerly flow will allow for continued cold air advection over
the Bering and will also deliver strong gusty winds across the
Aleutians and western Alaska Peninsula, especially through the
usual channeled gaps and passes. On the heels of this building
ridge is a Kamchatka low. The leading edge of its frontal system
approaches the western Aleutians by Mon evening. The associated
surface low will gradually weaken as it tracks east through the
western Aleutians Tuesday then turns to the southeast to track
south of the central Aleutians Tuesday night.

&&

The forecast period commences with a broad longwave trough across
the Bering, the North Pacific and the Gulf Of Alaska with a ridge
axis over the Western Bering. At the onset of the forecast
period, the models have a closed low at 500 mb near Atka and
another closed low at 500 mb in the western Gulf (near Kodiak).
There are numerous shortwaves in the base of the trough axis. As
the forecast period elapses, the model divergence becomes more
amplified. Generally, expecting an active pattern for the Bering
and the Gulf of Alaska. However, due to the degraded performance
of the models as of late, this forecast package reflects a blend
of models. Even with the blending and the hedging, categorically
there are confidence issues with the timing of the precipitation
shields for each storm, the timing of the gusty winds and the
tracks of the lows.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 120 125.
         Gale Warning 130 131 132 136 137 138 139
         140 150 155 172 351 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO/BJB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
LONG TERM...PS