Small Craft Advisory 433, NWS Anchorage, AK

592 
FZAK51 PAFC 312320
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-011245-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 mb low 180 nm southeast of Sitkinak moves 150 nm south of
Sitka at 1002 mb Fri afternoon and then moves 200 nm southwest of
Sitka at 1015 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-011245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-011245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-011245-
Resurrection Bay-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-011245-
Prince William Sound-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-011245-
Port Valdez-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-011245-
Valdez Narrows-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-011245-
Valdez Arm-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-011245-
Passage Canal-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-011245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-011245-
Barren Islands East-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-011245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-011245-
Chiniak Bay-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-011245-
Marmot Bay-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-011245-
Shelikof Strait-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-011245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-011245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-011245-
Kachemak Bay-
320 PM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

768 
FZAK51 PAFC 011138
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-020100-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1002 mb low 200 nm southwest of Klawock moves to 190 nm southwest
of Sitka at 1010 mb by Sat morning and then moves to 300 nm 
southwest of Klawock at 1013 mb by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-020100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-020100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-020100-
Resurrection Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-020100-
Prince William Sound-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-020100-
Port Valdez-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-020100-
Valdez Narrows-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-020100-
Valdez Arm-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-020100-
Passage Canal-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-020100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-020100-
Barren Islands East-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-020100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-020100-
Chiniak Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-020100-
Marmot Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-020100-
Shelikof Strait-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-020100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-020100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-020100-
Kachemak Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 PM AKDT Wed May 30 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level stacked low is currently situated over the Bering.
The trough axis extends from the central Aleutians toward Norton
Sound. A strong 140 knot jet on the southern side of the trough is
inducing a wide swath of zonal flow aloft over the northern
Pacific.

At the surface, cloud cover is plentiful across
much of the state. A weak low in the Gulf continues to generate
light rain across the coastal areas of Prince William Sound. Light
rain is also observed across Cook Inlet on radar this afternoon
as well as along the AK Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance remains in generally good agreement through the next 24
hours. Minor disagreements arise on Friday when a low enters the
western Bering. The ECMWF and GFS both position the low slightly
further north while the NAM keeps the low further south. At this
time, forecasters leaned toward the NAM solution with the
southerly track.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Showers will be a threat through the early evening before
ending. Turnagain winds will remain gusty through the late evening
before waning overnight. Thereafter light winds and VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A weak surface low spinning in the Gulf of Alaska will continue
to bring cloudy skies and rain showers to southern and western
portions of Southcentral overnight and into tomorrow. As the low
center drifts to the south and east tomorrow afternoon, dry
northeasterly flow will set-up leading to clearing skies and
warming temperatures as we head into the weekend.

Most of Southcentral will be under the influence of a no-flow
regime with weak ridging building in from the Yukon. As surface
temperatures warm up in the interior, a diurnal thermal trough
will develop over the Copper River Basin. This, combined with
several weak easterly waves pushing across the ALCAN should be
enough to initiate widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms
over the higher terrain in the afternoon and evening hours. Weak
northeasterly mid-level flow may push these storms into the lower
lying areas of the Copper River and Susitna Valleys on Friday.
Instability over the Chugach and Kenai Mountains should remain low
enough to prevent most thunderstorm development, though showers
and an isolated rumble of thunder can be expected if recreating in
those areas on Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A front remains stalled along the Southwest mainland through
Thursday afternoon, then dissipates as the associated surface low
fills. A ridge builds across the eastern Bering in the wake of the
low with light northerly flow developing across the Southwest on
Friday. Brief patchy morning fog is expected to develop Friday
early morning along much of the Kuskokwim Delta as the stable air
mass nudges inland. Friday afternoon there is a pattern shift
toward warmer conditions as a thermal trough develops across the
interior to the southwest. This brings the next focus for a few
thunderstorms to develop across the Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol
Bay during the latter part of the day Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Low pressure along the eastern Bering weakens and diminishes by
Thursday afternoon. A ridge builds across the Bering in its wake
bringing a brief break in the active weather pattern late
Thursday. The next front races up from the North Pacific late
Thursday night spreading moderate to heavy rain and storm force
marine winds to the western and central Aleutians Friday through
Saturday. The associated surface low crosses over Shemya to the
Bering late Friday evening as it deepens to 965 mb. The track of
the low slows considerably as it continues north and detaches from
the jet stream which remains nearly zonal south of the Aleutian
Chain. The frontal boundary is expected to progress to the western
Alaska Peninsula by Saturday afternoon with the northern extent
of the boundary stretched across St. Matthew Island. The core of
the low remains across the western Bering Waters through this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Models have come into somewhat better agreement with regards to
the progression of the upper level pattern this weekend through
early next week. The deep, vertically stacked Bering low will
gradually fill as it meanders around the western Bering through
the weekend. The weakening associated frontal system will reach
the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula Saturday night and then
stall out and shear apart along the Southwest Alaska coast on
Sunday. A frontal wave will develop along a trailing section of
the front south of the Alaska Peninsula Sunday night but will
track off to the east well south of the Gulf Monday and Tuesday.

The broad upper level low over the Bering will progress gradually
east to be centered over central Bering Monday with a trough
elongating east Tuesday to stretch across the Alaska Peninsula
and into the western Gulf. The entire pattern will then continue
to shift to the south and east with upper level low centered over
the Alaska Peninsula and western Gulf Wednesday through Friday.
Of the all the various model solutions from yesterday's runs, this
one will bring the coolest overall weather. Easterly flow to the
north of the low will bring persistently showery weather to
Southwest Alaska while troughs and fronts rotating through the
Gulf will bring rain to the Gulf coast and cool, generally cloudy
onshore flow further inland to Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JR