Gale Warning 397, NWS Anchorage, AK

673 
FZAK52 PAFC 011158
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-020045-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 mb low 460 nm west of Shemya moves to 130 nm north of 
Shemya at 966 mb by Sat morning and then moves to 430 nm north of
Shemya at 974 mb by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-020045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-020045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt, increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon W of the 
Shumagin Islands. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-020045-
Bristol Bay-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-020045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt, becoming SE 25 kt after midnight W 
of Port Moller. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-020045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-020045-
Unalaska Bay-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-020045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-020045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft building to 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-020045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-020045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-020045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-020045-
Adak to Kiska-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 15 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Bering side, seas 20 ft. Pacific side,
seas 20 ft building to 27 ft after midnight. Widespread rain 
showers.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-020045-
Kiska to Attu-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Areas of fog. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft Bering side...28 ft Pacific
side. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-020045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-020045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-020045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-020045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
358 AM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

734 
FZAK52 PAFC 012255
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021130-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 MB low 150 NM west southwest of Shemya will intensify to 
965 MB 100 NM north of Shemya Friday night then weaken to 981 MB 
360 NM north of Shemya Sunday afternoon. A low will move off the 
southern Kamchatka Peninsula Saturday night and be a 987 mb low 60
NM north of Shemya Sunday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-021130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind increasing to 30 kt except S 20 kt from the Shumagin 
Islands E. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt by midnight. Seas 9 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021130-
Bristol Bay-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy morning fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E, variable 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt except S 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021130-
Unalaska Bay-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt by midnight. Seas 13 
ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt by midnight. Seas 16 
ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021130-
Adak to Kiska-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt becoming SW 45 kt by midnight. Bering side, 
seas 21 ft. Pacific side, seas 22 ft building to 29 ft after 
midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft Bering side... 30 ft Pacific side.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt by midnight. Seas 20 
ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021130-
Kiska to Attu-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W 50 kt by midnight. Seas 21 ft 
Bering side...29 ft Pacific side. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
19 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9 
ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-021130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
255 PM AKDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt 
increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 AM AKDT Thu May 31 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The longwave pattern features a broad area of troughing that spans
from the Eastern Bering across Southwest Alaska and into the Gulf
Of Alaska. The remnants of a surface low circulation are
southeast of Kodiak. Currently, there is a ridge over the Western
Aleutians. The latest satellite imagery has a widespread area of
low level and mid level clouds from the Alaska Peninsula to
Cordova. The four radars monitoring the area of responsibility
all have something on them. The Kenai radar just has isolated
showers, but the radar at Bethel and Middleton Island are much
more active.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good consensus through Sunday with the major
synoptic features. The NAM GFS and ECMWF have converged one the
solution that brings the new low which is currently east of Japan
towards the Western Aleutians. Then moves the low north of the
chain and into the Western/Central Bering. The global models are
in sync with both the intensity and timing. The NCEP RMOP/Relative
Measure Of Predictability for the Western Aleutian low is handily
in high confidence territory. For the low south of Kodiak the
models steer it into the Gulf of Alaska and slowly pushing
southeastward.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions expected this forecast period. The radar for
Kenai (PAHG) has detected s few showers over the Cook Inlet. Added
VCSH to the TAF to account for the possibility of them approaching
the aerodrome.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Most areas will begin to see a gradual clearing trend today as the
Gulf low slowly exists the area and weakens. This will will allow
for warmer and drier conditions from the interior and Yukon
Territory to move into the area, along with a strengthening
thermal trough that will be the focus for convection into this
weekend. After breaks in the clouds form over much of
Southcentral later this morning, expect diurnal shower development
over most areas north of the Kenai with isolated thunderstorms
over the Copper River Basin. The thermal trough will then begin to
intensify on Friday and Saturday, allowing for more widespread
thunderstorm development around the Copper River Basin and Susitna
Valley, as well as the potential for isolated thunderstorms from
Eagle River area into the Matanuska Valley on Friday and possibly
Saturday. Otherwise this pattern will allow for more seasonable
temperature with sea breezes expected along the usual areas along
Cook Inlet and the North Gulf Coast into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cyclonic flow on the eastern periphery of the weakening Bering low
will continue to support cool and showery conditions today across
the southwest mainland. Extensive cloud cover and onshore flow
will generally limit thunderstorm potential this afternoon,
although a few isolated strikes will be possible in the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley if the area can get a few breaks of sunshine to
help destabilize the atmosphere. Diurnal convective activity
should be more prevalent across the region by Friday and
continuing into Saturday as the pattern transitions to a warmer
offshore flow regime and the thermal trough is reestablished from
the Kuskokwim Valley into Greater Bristol Bay. This will yield
more widespread thunderstorm potential over the course of the next
few afternoons/evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A relatively quiet pattern will continue through Friday morning as
the weakening low supports scattered to numerous showers across
the eastern half of the Bering while transient ridging promotes
even more benign conditions out west. Attention then turns to an
unseasonably strong low poised top enter the western Bering on
Friday. The associated front should be strong enough to produce
a narrow swath of storm force winds as it enters the Western
Aleutians, with more widespread storms then developing Friday
night into Saturday in cold advection on the back side of the
system. The front will track east across the Bering through
Saturday afternoon, bringing a quick shot of heavier rain to much
of the chain before weakening rapidly by the time it reaches the
Akpen late Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Models have come into somewhat better agreement with regards to
the progression of the upper level pattern this weekend through
early next week. The deep, vertically stacked Bering low will
gradually fill as it meanders around the western Bering through
the weekend. The weakening associated frontal system will reach
the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula Saturday night and then
stall out and shear apart along the Southwest Alaska coast on
Sunday. A frontal wave will develop along a trailing section of
the front south of the Alaska Peninsula Sunday night but will
track off to the east well south of the Gulf Monday and Tuesday.

The broad upper level low over the Bering will progress gradually
east to be centered over central Bering Monday with a trough
elongating east Tuesday to stretch across the Alaska Peninsula
and into the western Gulf. The entire pattern will then continue
to shift to the south and east with upper level low centered over
the Alaska Peninsula and western Gulf Wednesday through Friday.
Of the all the various model solutions from yesterday's runs, this
one will bring the coolest overall weather. Easterly flow to the
north of the low will bring persistently showery weather to
Southwest Alaska while troughs and fronts rotating through the
Gulf will bring rain to the Gulf coast and cool, generally cloudy
onshore flow further inland to Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...GALE 413 411 175 176. STORM 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JR