Small Craft Advisory 40, NWS Anchorage, AK

978 
FZAK52 PAFC 142359
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151245-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 963 mb low 70 nm southwest of Kipnuk will move into the 
northern Bering by Mon afternoon. A new low west of the Aleutians 
Mon night will move to 360 nm west of Shemya at 987 mb by Tue 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-151245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151245-
Bristol Bay-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-151245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt except S 20 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151245-
Unalaska Bay-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-151245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151245-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151245-
Adak to Kiska-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151245-
Kiska to Attu-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-151245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-151245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

042 
FZAK52 PAFC 151212
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160115-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the western Aleutians will dissipate over the central
Aleutians Tue afternoon. A 973 mb low moves into the southwestern
Gulf Tue night then it will move to 50 nm southeast of Kodiak City 
at 977 mb Wed morning. A 986 mb Kamchatka low will move to 95 nm
southwest of Shemya Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-160115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160115-
Bristol Bay-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-160115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except S 20 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. From Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt
becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160115-
Unalaska Bay-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160115-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160115-
Adak to Kiska-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160115-
Kiska to Attu-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-160115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-160115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main features today are a rapidly north moving low near
Kodiak Island and its associated front sweeping north across the
Gulf. Gale to hurricane force winds in advance of the front were
evident across many of the marine areas overs the Gulf with strong
winds flowing through gaps across the Kenai Peninsula and along
the Aleutian Range. Temperatures across much of the Kenai
Peninsula, North Gulf, and into the Bristol Bay, and locally windy
areas inland across Southcentral (Matanuska Valley, Turnagain
Arm, etc.) were well above freezing. Temperatures elsewhere across
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska were below freezing. That said,
precipitation was mainly in the form rain along coastal
Southcentral and over Bristol Bay. Coastal areas, especially the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula are seeing an increase in intensity.
Strong cross-barrier flow is mitigating precipitation west of the
Chugach and Aleutian Ranges.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in fairly good agreement with the movement of the lows
near Kodiak Island/South of AK Pen, Gulf front, and sensible
weather. Models are in better agreement with the low placement of
the next low heading northwest across the Gulf late Sunday into
Monday. They however are struggling some on the west progression
of the baroclinic zone and resultant precipitation. For now will
lean toward a GFS/ECMWF solution with these features.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally VFR conditions will persist through the TAF
period. Light north surface winds will persist until the weather
front over the Gulf lifts north of Anchorage this evening. At that
time, gusty southeast winds will develop at the surface across
the airport complex.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front that brought hurricane force winds to the Barren
Islands and the north Gulf Coast continues to move rapidly
northward tonight. Storm force winds are expected to move into
Prince William Sound, but once the front passes through, winds
should switch to be more southerly and drop off fairly rapidly.
Heavy precipitation is expected on the windward side of the
ranges, but this front is strong enough that some light
precipitation is making it across the mountains and falling on the
western side. After the front passes through, western areas
should transition to showers with lighter precipitation.

In the eastern Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin,
the onslaught of precipitation will not be as short-lived. A
second developing low is expected to move northward along the
front and turn the flow more southerly along the southern Gulf
Coast and over the Copper River Basin. This should bring quite a
bit of moisture over the region, and cold temperatures in the
Copper River Basin are expected to keep the precip primarily as
snow through Monday morning. Early on, the snow may mix with rain
and freezing rain areas closest to the Chugach mountains, as there
will be quite a bit of warm air aloft as well.

Monday morning, the trough is expected to move westward slightly,
bringing snow to the western Copper River Basin and increasing
the chances of snow through Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley.
Current forecast thinking follows the EC/GFS solutions, which
indicate snowfall will be light, if at all. EC and GFS have been
consistent in this forecast. NAM is much more bullish with
heavier snowfall expected Monday morning...but this is an outlier
and considered to be an unlikely scenario.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A moderately strong area of low pressure currently located across
the AKpen will continue to lift northward tonight across eastern
portions of the Bering tonight while slowly weakening. Rain and
snow showers will develop across much of the region as the system
passes by with minor accumulations possible. Some gusty
southeasterly winds will persist at the surface and this will
allow temperatures to warm, especially for the interior where
down-slope effects will help compress the air some more.

Precipitation will continue decrease in coverage for Monday as
the main area of upper-level support moves north of the region,
with weak cold advection and increasing subsidence becoming the
main items of interest. Temperatures will decrease for Monday and
Monday night due to the colder air filtering back into the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An area of low pressure will cross the eastern Bering through
tomorrow night, bringing gale force winds to this area, with
lighter winds expected elsewhere. Rain and snow showers will
rotate across all of the region around this system as it continues
its northward journey. Precipitation remains possible for Sunday
into Monday but coverage of such will decrease somewhat as we lose
the upper support, with cold air advection over the warmer waters
being the main focus for any shower development.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
This forecast period commences with a low in the Gulf of Alaska
and a vortex of cold air spanning from NE Russia and into the
Central Bering. At the surface, there is a ridge axis that
extends from the north Pacific into the Western Aleutians. The GFS
and the ECMWF are not exactly in sync with the low in the Gulf Of
Alaska but they are clearly converging on a solution that brings
a deep fetch of moisture to Prince William Sound and the Kenai
Peninsula which merited bumping up pops and QPF this forecast
package. By Wednesday, the models bring new lows into the north
Pacific one which will move towards Southeast Alaska and the
other which will track towards the Western Aleutians. The models
continue to bring cooler temperatures aloft into Southwest Alaska
by midweek with the vortex slowly shifting eastward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 125.
 Gale Warning 120 127 130>132 136>141 150 160 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...PJS