Gale Warning 54, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 13, 2018, 3:09 PM AKST (00:09 UTC)

Expired

Jan 14, 2018, 4:00 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

435 
FZAK51 PAFC 140009
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141300-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front just south of the Kenai Peninsula will move into the 
eastern Gulf by Sun afternoon. A 988 mb low 400 nm southeast of 
Middleton Island on Sun afternoon will move 45 nm east of 
Middleton Island at 991 mb by Sun night and then move inland. A 
new 976 mb low will form in the North Pacific Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-141300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt in the evening. Wind 25 kt after
midnight. Near the coast, SE wind 60 kt in the evening becoming 25 kt
after midnight. Seas 29 ft subsiding to 22 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt except NE 30 kt near the coast. Seas
15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141300-
Resurrection Bay-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Higher winds and seas south of Caines Head. Seas
5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141300-
Prince William Sound-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141300-
Port Valdez-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141300-
Valdez Narrows-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141300-
Valdez Arm-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141300-
Passage Canal-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers and
snow.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141300-
Barren Islands East-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 14 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141300-
Chiniak Bay-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141300-
Marmot Bay-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141300-
Shelikof Strait-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 15 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2
ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-141300-
Kachemak Bay-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt in the evening decreasing to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 13, 6:39 AM AKST, 8 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
639 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The trough-ridge pattern set up over southern Alaska and the north
Pacific continues to amplify as the trough digs all the way down
to 35N. Then a ridge over the western half of North America
returns a nearly due south to north flow through the Gulf into
Southcentral. Warm air associated with the ridging continues to
move northward into Southcentral. The vertically stacked low
south of Sand Point is providing the energy, and cold air to
produce strong warm fronts that are causing strong winds, and
periodically heavy precipitation.

Temperatures continue to warm over the area, reaching the upper
30s to lower 40s at coastal communities like Kodiak and Homer.
Meanwhile cooler temperatures and northerly winds keep Anchorage
and points north just below freezing; although, that too will
change with the next front. Across Southwest Alaska, northerly
winds continue so the warm up is not occurring there quite as
fast. Colder air with the deep upper level trough remains over the
Bering, and widespread stratus clouds are periodically producing
rain showers as temperatures largely hold in the 30s.

Gale force winds moved into the north Gulf coast with the latest
front overnight, but another stronger front is quickly pushing
northward across the southern Gulf this morning. The low south of
Sand point is spreading gusty northerly winds and rain showers
across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are finally coming into better agreement on the
evolution of the pair of lows tracking from the north Pacific into
the eastern Bering. A secondary low has recently formed along the
triple point to the east of the occluding one south of Sand
Point. The secondary low will absorb the first one, thus becoming
the primary. It tracks northwestward across the southern Alaska
Peninsula into the eastern Bering by this afternoon and evening.
From there it will track to near Nunivak Island Sunday afternoon,
then into the northern Bering. While there still is some timing
differences between models, they're in much better agreement.
Thus, forecast confidence has significantly improved regarding
that system.

Unfortunately the next system has large differences between the
models which leads to large differences in the forecast depending
on which one is chosen. What is in agreement, is a low developing
even further south and east in the Gulf than all previous ones.
The low is forecast to track north and west across the central
Gulf and into the north Gulf Coast, likely to Prince William
Sound. The models are very different as to when the center of the
low reaches the Sound, with differences as much as 24 hours. Thus,
there is high uncertainty, but enough of the models are
suggesting sometime Sunday night into Monday morning. The track as
it stands right now is favorable for snow to fall in Anchorage
early Monday morning, but a lot of detail still needs to be worked
out. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Winds will remain out of the
north with some variability especially early this morning. A
front moving up the Inlet late this afternoon and evening will
bring some shower activity to the airport. Warm temperatures
should keep the predominant precipitation type as rain. The
precipitation may mix with or change over to snow if it gets to a
heavy-enough intensity, so brief periods of MVFR conditions are
possible with any stronger showers. Once the front passes, the
winds will flip to the southeasterly direction and remain gusty.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
This very active weather pattern for the Gulf continues as one
gale force front is currently dissipating in Prince William Sound
while a much stronger, storm-hurricane force front is quickly on
it's heels. This front will bring another round of strong winds
and seas in excess of 30 ft over much of the Gulf by this
afternoon. It could possibly even bring brief rounds of high
winds (75 mph or higher) to Kodiak Island or Southern Kachemak Bay
as it intensifies to hurricane force along the North Gulf Coast
this afternoon. At this point the risk of high winds looks to be
very brief and as a result, a warning was not issued, but these
areas should still expect a significant ramp up in winds by early
this afternoon. Confidence remains very good that this front will
bring storm force winds as far east as Prince William Sound this
evening, as well as widespread heavy rain and snow to the Eastern
Kenai (including Turnagain Pass) through today. One major
difference regarding this front from the one that pushed through
yesterday, will be much warmer air, bringing snow levels as high
as 1500-2000 above sea level by this afternoon before falling to
around 500 ft overnight. This system is expected to bring
heightened avalanche danger, including to the Turnagain Pass area,
so recreators are encouraged to check their nearest avalanche
advisory center for the latest information. For the lee side of
the Chugach, precipitation will light (if any) as a result of
strong cross barrier flow, and instead will see temperatures
rising well into the 30s with strong gap winds through Turnagain
Arm and out of the Matanuska Valley for much of this weekend.

There will be no rest for the weary even into late this weekend
as the models are beginning to come to a consensus with the track
of an inverted trough from the Eastern-Central Gulf late Sunday-
Monday. As a result confidence is increasing that widespread
accumulating snowfall will develop from Prince William Sound
northward into the Copper River Basin beginning Sunday evening
before spreading westward into Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley
late Sunday- Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

A fast moving and strong low will move into Bristol Bay today.
This will bring strong gale force winds with some storm force
gusts near the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges. Enough warm air will
quickly turn any snow to rain across Bristol Bay, but it should
remain snow across the Kuskokwim Delta. Snow will favor the coast,
and with a strong pressure gradient, there may be some brief
reductions as low as a a half mile in snow and blowing snow.
Behind the front, temperatures will rise well above average
tonight through Sunday with many inland locales rising above 40
degrees.

The low will then lift north toward the Bering Strait through
Sunday night. Rain and snow showers behind the low will continue
with the bulk of this precipitation along the coast. Temperatures
will slowly drop back closer to normal as weak cold air advection
filters in from the Bering behind the surface low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

A strong gale force low will move into Bristol Bay today, with the
core of strongest winds remaining east of Cold Bay. The low will
then slowly weaken and move north along the southwest coast Sunday
evening. Colder air and north-northwest winds will then encompass
the remainder of the Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
This forecast period commences with a low near Saint Lawrence
Island and Norton Sound. This setup will sustain southerly winds
across southwestern Alaska and enable weak warm advection. Monday
will see widespread areas of above freezing temperatures across
Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. By Tuesday, the models are out
of sync with the next low entering the Gulf of Alaska. In a
nutshell, the ECMWF is progging the surface low near Kenai and the
GFS is placing the low 300 NM SE at the same time which would
have wildly different implications for the Southcentral AK. As
time elapses, the the GFS pushes that same low north which would
delay the onset of the QPF in PWS which makes hedging the best
tactic. Later in the long-term pattern, all of the models seem to
converge on two major sensible weather concepts. One, the
thickness values plummet bringing brutally cold air south of the
Alaska Range. Two, the seas near the Western Aleutians will become
very dynamic as another round of cyclogenesis is anticipated.
Given the vagaries of the models, hedged between the WPC guidance
and the previous grid package which resulted in small changes to
the long-term package.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Hurricane: 120 130 131.
         Storm: 119 125 132 136 137 138 139 141 351 352.
         Gale: 127 140 150 160 165 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JRA
LONG TERM...PJS

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2018Every gale warning in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.