Gale Warning 55, NWS Anchorage, AK

744 
FZAK51 PAFC 150010
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-151300-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 mb North Pacific low 380 nm southeast of Middleton Island 
Sun night will move to 80 nm southeast of Middleton Island at 986 mb
by Mon morning and then will move inland by Mon afternoon. Another 
984 mb North Pacific low 530 nm southeast of Middleton Island Mon
afternoon will move to 40 nm southeast of Seldovia at 983 mb by 
Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-151300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt. E of Middleton Island...N 
wind 20 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 20 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Near the coast...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-151300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-151300-
Resurrection Bay-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt 
after midnight. Seas building to 3 ft after midnight.
.MON...N wind 15 kt diminishing to less than 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-151300-
Prince William Sound-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...E of Naked Island...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt by late 
morning. W of Naked Island...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt by late 
morning. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-151300-
Port Valdez-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-151300-
Valdez Narrows-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-151300-
Valdez Arm-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-151300-
Passage Canal-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier in the morning. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-151300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-151300-
Barren Islands East-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-151300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-151300-
Chiniak Bay-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.MON...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-151300-
Marmot Bay-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-151300-
Shelikof Strait-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-151300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. S of Anchor Point...SE wind 20 kt 
becoming Variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-151300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free 
waters 1 ft.

$$

PKZ141-151300-
Kachemak Bay-
310 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt...strongest winds over the outer bay. 
Seas 3 ft subsiding.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main features today are a rapidly north moving low near
Kodiak Island and its associated front sweeping north across the
Gulf. Gale to hurricane force winds in advance of the front were
evident across many of the marine areas overs the Gulf with strong
winds flowing through gaps across the Kenai Peninsula and along
the Aleutian Range. Temperatures across much of the Kenai
Peninsula, North Gulf, and into the Bristol Bay, and locally windy
areas inland across Southcentral (Matanuska Valley, Turnagain
Arm, etc.) were well above freezing. Temperatures elsewhere across
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska were below freezing. That said,
precipitation was mainly in the form rain along coastal
Southcentral and over Bristol Bay. Coastal areas, especially the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula are seeing an increase in intensity.
Strong cross-barrier flow is mitigating precipitation west of the
Chugach and Aleutian Ranges.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in fairly good agreement with the movement of the lows
near Kodiak Island/South of AK Pen, Gulf front, and sensible
weather. Models are in better agreement with the low placement of
the next low heading northwest across the Gulf late Sunday into
Monday. They however are struggling some on the west progression
of the baroclinic zone and resultant precipitation. For now will
lean toward a GFS/ECMWF solution with these features.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally VFR conditions will persist through the TAF
period. Light north surface winds will persist until the weather
front over the Gulf lifts north of Anchorage this evening. At that
time, gusty southeast winds will develop at the surface across
the airport complex.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front that brought hurricane force winds to the Barren
Islands and the north Gulf Coast continues to move rapidly
northward tonight. Storm force winds are expected to move into
Prince William Sound, but once the front passes through, winds
should switch to be more southerly and drop off fairly rapidly.
Heavy precipitation is expected on the windward side of the
ranges, but this front is strong enough that some light
precipitation is making it across the mountains and falling on the
western side. After the front passes through, western areas
should transition to showers with lighter precipitation.

In the eastern Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin,
the onslaught of precipitation will not be as short-lived. A
second developing low is expected to move northward along the
front and turn the flow more southerly along the southern Gulf
Coast and over the Copper River Basin. This should bring quite a
bit of moisture over the region, and cold temperatures in the
Copper River Basin are expected to keep the precip primarily as
snow through Monday morning. Early on, the snow may mix with rain
and freezing rain areas closest to the Chugach mountains, as there
will be quite a bit of warm air aloft as well.

Monday morning, the trough is expected to move westward slightly,
bringing snow to the western Copper River Basin and increasing
the chances of snow through Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley.
Current forecast thinking follows the EC/GFS solutions, which
indicate snowfall will be light, if at all. EC and GFS have been
consistent in this forecast. NAM is much more bullish with
heavier snowfall expected Monday morning...but this is an outlier
and considered to be an unlikely scenario.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A moderately strong area of low pressure currently located across
the AKpen will continue to lift northward tonight across eastern
portions of the Bering tonight while slowly weakening. Rain and
snow showers will develop across much of the region as the system
passes by with minor accumulations possible. Some gusty
southeasterly winds will persist at the surface and this will
allow temperatures to warm, especially for the interior where
down-slope effects will help compress the air some more.

Precipitation will continue decrease in coverage for Monday as
the main area of upper-level support moves north of the region,
with weak cold advection and increasing subsidence becoming the
main items of interest. Temperatures will decrease for Monday and
Monday night due to the colder air filtering back into the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An area of low pressure will cross the eastern Bering through
tomorrow night, bringing gale force winds to this area, with
lighter winds expected elsewhere. Rain and snow showers will
rotate across all of the region around this system as it continues
its northward journey. Precipitation remains possible for Sunday
into Monday but coverage of such will decrease somewhat as we lose
the upper support, with cold air advection over the warmer waters
being the main focus for any shower development.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
This forecast period commences with a low in the Gulf of Alaska
and a vortex of cold air spanning from NE Russia and into the
Central Bering. At the surface, there is a ridge axis that
extends from the north Pacific into the Western Aleutians. The GFS
and the ECMWF are not exactly in sync with the low in the Gulf Of
Alaska but they are clearly converging on a solution that brings
a deep fetch of moisture to Prince William Sound and the Kenai
Peninsula which merited bumping up pops and QPF this forecast
package. By Wednesday, the models bring new lows into the north
Pacific one which will move towards Southeast Alaska and the
other which will track towards the Western Aleutians. The models
continue to bring cooler temperatures aloft into Southwest Alaska
by midweek with the vortex slowly shifting eastward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 125.
 Gale Warning 120 127 130>132 136>141 150 160 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...PJS