Small Craft Advisory 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level trough over the Bering is lifting a front across
the southern mainland this morning. Two surface lows are
associated with this upper level feature, one along the central
Bering and the other across the western Gulf of Alaska. The front
along the north gulf coast is nearly stationary as a shallow cold
air mass holds inland. The boundary along the Southwest pushed
inland through the Kuskokwim Delta and western Bristol Bay before
stalling and is currently diminishing as the associated Bering
low weakens.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in relatively good agreement through Wednesday then
begin to diverge in solutions on handling the strong upper waves
across the North Pacific and Bering mid week. Only minor changes
were made for the morning package using a blended model approach
for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions are expected as snow develops early
this morning with improving conditions by this afternoon. Winds
will remain light as the surface gradient slackens in the wake of
the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The radars at Middleton Island (PAIH) and Kenai (PAHG) have been
very active as an occluded front has pushed into Southcentral. As
of 12Z or 3 AM AKST, the surface low which is anchoring the
occlusion is southeast of Homer. Meanwhile, the shortwave trough
aloft has become negatively tilted and some pretty decent dynamics
have set up over the Kenai Peninsula. Snow has been falling
overnight at both Homer and Anchor Point with snow beginning at
the Anchorage Airport shortly before 3 AM AKST. The moisture will
continue to move into the Anchorage Bowl this morning. Anchorage
is still on track for roughly one to two inches of new snow with
this event. The surface low will be near Middleton Island by 3 PM
AKST today and east of the Copper River Delta Wednesday morning.
In the wake of the recent frontal passage a ridge will build over
Kodiak Island and high pressure will again establish itself over
Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A front tracking inland across Southwest Alaska this morning will
continue to elongate and weaken, with light snow lingering across
the Kuskokwim Valley. A trailing upper level short-wave and weak
instability behind the front will produce a few showers until the
trough exits eastward into the Gulf of Alaska tonight. Areas of
fog and stratus have developed as snow has ended in Bristol Bay
and the Kuskokwim delta. The combination of slackening low level
flow and decreasing mid to upper level clouds will create ideal
conditions for fog, and it could become dense in some areas. An
upper ridge will then build overhead Wednesday, so the fog and
low clouds could hang around for a while. Winds along the coast
will increase on Wednesday as a storm moves into the Bering Sea,
which should help mix out some of the low level moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level trough will dig across the North Pacific leading
to building of a high amplitude downstream ridge over the next
couple days. A series of lows will eject out of the trough and
track northward into the Bering Sea. The southerly jet between
the ridge and trough looks like it will set up from the Eastern
Aleutians to the Pribilof Islands, with warm and moist air
transport centered through this general corridor. Generally
expect a warm- up across the central to eastern Bering, with a
prolonged period of strong southerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Wednesday evening through Monday night)...
We will be returning to a weak outflow pattern, clear skies and
lighter winds, except for gaps of the north gulf coast where
gustier winds can be expected in favored areas. From there, the
pattern amplifies through the weekend as a front moves into the
Gulf of Alaska through from the Aleutians. Guidance is in better
agreement today with the setup of the progressive pattern but it
looks active. A series of fronts will traverse the area through
next week. The jet stream stays mostly south of our area, only
briefly impinging up on the mainland, so a big warmup is not in
the cards at this point. On the flip side, because of the storm
track and cold air in place, it appears as if the fronts will be
numerous but just clipping Southcentral each time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 131 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 179
                      185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
LONG TERM...MTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1102 AM AKST TUE FEB 06 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     SNOW             4 E ANCHORAGE           61.21N 149.74W
02/06/2018  M1.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SNOW FALLING LIGHTLY

0900 AM     SNOW             5 NW PORTAGE            60.82N 148.97W
02/06/2018  M3.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             5 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.98W
02/06/2018  M3.1 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            SNOW FALLING LIGHTLY

0900 AM     SNOW             6 ESE FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN 61.07N 149.49W
02/06/2018  M15.7 INCH                          AK   MESONET

            HIGH ELEVATION STATION INDIAN PASS

0900 AM     SNOW             1 ENE FRITZ CREEK       59.74N 151.26W
02/06/2018  M7.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             1 W ANCHOR POINT        59.77N 151.84W
02/06/2018  M7.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0900 AM     SNOW             3 SSW NINILCHIK         60.04N 151.67W
02/06/2018  M5.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0900 AM     SNOW             5 S KENAI               60.48N 151.19W
02/06/2018  M4.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM     SNOW             19 NE STERLING          60.73N 150.47W
02/06/2018  M7.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             9 N FRITZ CREEK         59.87N 151.32W
02/06/2018  M7.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             9 NW SEWARD             60.19N 149.62W
02/06/2018  M2.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             8 SSE COOPER LANDING    60.39N 149.69W
02/06/2018  M3.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             13 NNE GRANITE          60.61N 149.06W
02/06/2018  M13.0 INCH                          AK   MESONET

            HIGH ELEVATION STATION GRANDVIEW / MOOSE PASS

0900 AM     SNOW             8 SW PORTAGE            60.71N 149.03W
02/06/2018  M2.6 INCH                           AK   MESONET

&&

KUTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1152 AM AKST TUE FEB 06 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     SNOW             4 E ANCHORAGE           61.21N 149.74W
02/06/2018  M1.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SNOW FALLING LIGHTLY

0800 AM     SNOW             3 NW HOMER              59.67N 151.59W
02/06/2018  M3.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            OVER PAST 8 HOURS

0900 AM     SNOW             11 ESE NINILCHIK        60.01N 151.34W
02/06/2018  M5.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             5 NW PORTAGE            60.82N 148.97W
02/06/2018  M3.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             9 N FRITZ CREEK         59.87N 151.32W
02/06/2018  M7.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             8 SW PORTAGE            60.71N 149.03W
02/06/2018  M2.6 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             13 NNE GRANITE          60.61N 149.06W
02/06/2018  M13.0 INCH                          AK   MESONET

            HIGH ELEVATION STATION GRANDVIEW / MOOSE PASS

0900 AM     SNOW             8 SSE COOPER LANDING    60.39N 149.69W
02/06/2018  M3.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             9 NW SEWARD             60.19N 149.62W
02/06/2018  M2.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             19 NE STERLING          60.73N 150.47W
02/06/2018  M7.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             5 S KENAI               60.48N 151.19W
02/06/2018  M4.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM     SNOW             3 SSW NINILCHIK         60.04N 151.67W
02/06/2018  M5.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0900 AM     SNOW             1 W ANCHOR POINT        59.77N 151.84W
02/06/2018  M7.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0900 AM     SNOW             1 ENE FRITZ CREEK       59.74N 151.26W
02/06/2018  M7.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0900 AM     SNOW             6 ESE FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN 61.07N 149.49W
02/06/2018  M15.7 INCH                          AK   MESONET

            HIGH ELEVATION STATION INDIAN PASS

0900 AM     SNOW             5 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.98W
02/06/2018  M3.1 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            SNOW FALLING LIGHTLY

1100 AM     SNOW             5 SE KENAI              60.50N 151.10W
02/06/2018  M5.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPDATED

&&

KUTZ