Gale Warning 108, NWS Anchorage, AK

246 
FZAK61 PAFC 081228
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-090200-
328 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
High pressure over Gulf moves weakens through Friday morning. 
A front enters the southwestern Gulf tonight then it moves 
northeast through Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ351-090200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
328 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-090200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
328 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind up to 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt 
after midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

569 
FZAK61 PAFC 090022
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-091415-
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

High pressure over Gulf moves east and weakens through Sat. A 
front enters the southwestern Gulf late tonight. This front then 
moves northeast to the northern and eastern Gulf and slowly weakens 
through Sat Afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-091415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-091415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

351 
FZAK61 PAFC 091239
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-100230-
339 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front enters the Western Gulf Fri afternoon and moves across 
the Northern Gulf by Sun morning. Weak low centers track along 
the front through the Southeastern Gulf for Sun morning.

$$

PKZ351-100230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
339 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-100230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
339 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt 
after midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

818 
FZAK61 PAFC 100035
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-101400-
335 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front in the central Gulf moves to the northeastern Gulf Sat
afternoon. A 988 mb low forms near 51N 165W Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-101400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
335 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ352-101400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
335 PM AKST Fri Feb 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

826 
FZAK61 PAFC 101232
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-110215-
332 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front over the southwest Gulf weakens as it moves to the 
northern to eastern Gulf through Sat night. Another front will 
lift northward across the western Gulf Sun afternoon through 
Sun night.

$$

PKZ351-110215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
332 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SW up to 15 kt 
after midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-110215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
332 AM AKST Sat Feb 10 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level ridge along the Northwest coast is beginning
to sag southward while a broad trough over the western Bering
sends a closed low toward the central Aleutians. The front across
the northern gulf that brought snow on Tuesday has diminished with
only a remnant circulation across the northeast gulf. Scattered
showers continue to develop around the weak surface low mainly
across the northern gulf waters. Winds are calm in the wake of the
fronts that spanned across the southern mainland yesterday which
is allowing patchy dense fog to develop as a stable air mass re-
establishes across the southern tier. The exception to this is
where the unsettled weather pattern persists across coastal areas
of the eastern Kenai and Prince William Sound.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good general agreement through the end of the week
as the pattern slowly shifts. The upper level ridge remains
dominant across the mainland although its center tracks toward
the southeast. The upper level trough over the Bering keeps an
active pattern over the Bering as it swings several strong waves
up from the North Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Periodic MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
this morning as low level stratus and fog develops across the
Inlet waters and shifts along the coast. Conditions should
improve quickly by late morning as dry offshore flow sets up.
Light winds prevail through the TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The radar at Middleton Island (PAIH) still has light showers on
it from Montague Island to Cordova. The most recent scatterometer
pass from the satellite has an elongated circulation near
Middleton Island and the low is expected to slowly decay. There
has been some fog detected along the Kenai Peninsula and Cook
Inlet. In the wake of the recent frontal passage, northerly flow
will influence Southcentral. A shortwave moving down from the
Yukon Territory will clip the region, enhancing the offshore flow.
The models continue to bring a ridge axis over Kodiak Island on
Thursday. After the fog and stratus clear out of the region,
expect chilly morning temperatures again.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Dry conditions and a cooling trend will dominate the next couple
days as an upper level ridge builds overhead. With steep surface
inversions in place (as seen in the 12Z King Salmon and Bethel
soundings), areas of fog and stratus will persist. A front will
approach from the southwest late Thursday, leading to increasing
offshore winds along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A high amplitude pattern will remain firmly entrenched across the
Bering Sea and Aleutians the next couple days with a trough over
the northwest Pacific and Bering Sea and a ridge along the west
coast of mainland Alaska. Lows will eject out of the trough,
tracking across the Aleutians and into the Bering Sea.
Persistently strong southerly winds will affect the Eastern
Aleutians, southern Alaska Peninsula, Pribilof Islands, and
eastern Bering Sea. Temperatures will generally be quite mild,
supporting rain in most places. The one exception will be the
western Aleutian islands where colder air moving in from the
west will lead to a mix of rain and snow.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Long term forecast starts in Friday with a ridge remaining over
mainland Alaska and a moderate low pushing into the eastern Bering
Sea from the south. This will set up a front with a tight
pressure gradient over Southwest Alaska and strong warm advection
which will bring temperatures into the 40s in parts of Southwest
Alaska coastal regions. Clouds will have a harder time moving into
Southcentral Alaska due to the strength of the ridge keeping the
front over Southwest Alaska at bay. This should allow colder
temperatures to persist into Saturday morning before temperatures
warm up later in the weekend as the ridge over mainland Alaska is
finally pushed eastward.

After this, things become a bit more uncertain. Due to the lack of
model consistency, ensembles were used to get an idea of the
general trend for next week with details remaining elusive. In
general it looks like a more progressive weather pattern is in
store for the area early next week with more mild temperatures. As
some fronts move through the region there is the chance for some
precipitation with each one, but nothing at this point looks very
certain so nothing more than 'chance of' POPs are being used in
that time frame over southern mainland Alaska from late in the
weekend onward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 179
                      180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
LONG TERM...EZ