Gale Warning 153, NWS Anchorage, AK

122 
FZAK52 PAFC 081209
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-090130-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 993 mb low 230 nm east of Adak will move into the western 
Bering Fri morning. A 976 mb North Pacific low will move to 300 nm
southwest of Dutch Harbor Fri afternoon then it will move to 65 nm
south of Dutch Harbor at 980 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-090130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ155-090130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt except E 45 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 16 ft except 21 ft from the Shumagin Islands E. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ160-090130-
Bristol Bay-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-090130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt except E 45 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt except E 45 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-090130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-090130-
Unalaska Bay-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-090130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ173-090130-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ174-090130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ175-090130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-090130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming E 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ177-090130-
Adak to Kiska-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-090130-
Kiska to Attu-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-090130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-090130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft. Snow with
rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-090130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-090130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
309 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level ridge along the Northwest coast is beginning
to sag southward while a broad trough over the western Bering
sends a closed low toward the central Aleutians. The front across
the northern gulf that brought snow on Tuesday has diminished with
only a remnant circulation across the northeast gulf. Scattered
showers continue to develop around the weak surface low mainly
across the northern gulf waters. Winds are calm in the wake of the
fronts that spanned across the southern mainland yesterday which
is allowing patchy dense fog to develop as a stable air mass re-
establishes across the southern tier. The exception to this is
where the unsettled weather pattern persists across coastal areas
of the eastern Kenai and Prince William Sound.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good general agreement through the end of the week
as the pattern slowly shifts. The upper level ridge remains
dominant across the mainland although its center tracks toward
the southeast. The upper level trough over the Bering keeps an
active pattern over the Bering as it swings several strong waves
up from the North Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Periodic MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
this morning as low level stratus and fog develops across the
Inlet waters and shifts along the coast. Conditions should
improve quickly by late morning as dry offshore flow sets up.
Light winds prevail through the TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The radar at Middleton Island (PAIH) still has light showers on
it from Montague Island to Cordova. The most recent scatterometer
pass from the satellite has an elongated circulation near
Middleton Island and the low is expected to slowly decay. There
has been some fog detected along the Kenai Peninsula and Cook
Inlet. In the wake of the recent frontal passage, northerly flow
will influence Southcentral. A shortwave moving down from the
Yukon Territory will clip the region, enhancing the offshore flow.
The models continue to bring a ridge axis over Kodiak Island on
Thursday. After the fog and stratus clear out of the region,
expect chilly morning temperatures again.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Dry conditions and a cooling trend will dominate the next couple
days as an upper level ridge builds overhead. With steep surface
inversions in place (as seen in the 12Z King Salmon and Bethel
soundings), areas of fog and stratus will persist. A front will
approach from the southwest late Thursday, leading to increasing
offshore winds along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A high amplitude pattern will remain firmly entrenched across the
Bering Sea and Aleutians the next couple days with a trough over
the northwest Pacific and Bering Sea and a ridge along the west
coast of mainland Alaska. Lows will eject out of the trough,
tracking across the Aleutians and into the Bering Sea.
Persistently strong southerly winds will affect the Eastern
Aleutians, southern Alaska Peninsula, Pribilof Islands, and
eastern Bering Sea. Temperatures will generally be quite mild,
supporting rain in most places. The one exception will be the
western Aleutian islands where colder air moving in from the
west will lead to a mix of rain and snow.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Long term forecast starts in Friday with a ridge remaining over
mainland Alaska and a moderate low pushing into the eastern Bering
Sea from the south. This will set up a front with a tight
pressure gradient over Southwest Alaska and strong warm advection
which will bring temperatures into the 40s in parts of Southwest
Alaska coastal regions. Clouds will have a harder time moving into
Southcentral Alaska due to the strength of the ridge keeping the
front over Southwest Alaska at bay. This should allow colder
temperatures to persist into Saturday morning before temperatures
warm up later in the weekend as the ridge over mainland Alaska is
finally pushed eastward.

After this, things become a bit more uncertain. Due to the lack of
model consistency, ensembles were used to get an idea of the
general trend for next week with details remaining elusive. In
general it looks like a more progressive weather pattern is in
store for the area early next week with more mild temperatures. As
some fronts move through the region there is the chance for some
precipitation with each one, but nothing at this point looks very
certain so nothing more than 'chance of' POPs are being used in
that time frame over southern mainland Alaska from late in the
weekend onward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 179
                      180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
LONG TERM...EZ