Hurricane Force Wind Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

867 
FZAK52 PAFC 011141
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-020030-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 mb low 160 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor moves over Bristol 
Bay at 994 mb Mon evening and then dissipates. A 960 mb low enters
the western Bering Mon afternoon and moves 260 nm north of Shemya
at 953 mb Tue night.

$$

PKZ150-020030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. N of Chirikof Island, S wind 25 kt in the
evening becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. N of Chirikof Island, S wind 15 kt in the 
morning becoming SW. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-020030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. From the Shumagin Islands W, SE wind 35 kt 
becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. From 
the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-020030-
Bristol Bay-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10 
ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-020030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. From Port Moller W, E wind 25 kt in the 
morning becoming W. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt except SW 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
15 ft. From Port Moller E, seas 6 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. From Port
Moller E, SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-020030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-020030-
Unalaska Bay-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-020030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-020030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-020030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 12 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-020030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt in the evening becoming S 45 kt. Seas 13 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-020030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft
building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-020030-
Adak to Kiska-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas 21 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.WED...W wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-020030-
Kiska to Attu-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt increasing to 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft building to 24 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 60 kt becoming W 45 kt after midnight. Seas
28 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 60 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.WED...W wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-020030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-020030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 
ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-020030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-020030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
341 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 25 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 40 kt 
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

175 
FZAK52 PAFC 012353
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021230-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 mb low 60 nm Northeast of Cold Bay moves to 90 nm Southwest
of Kipnuk at 995 mb dissipating Tue morning. Its front wraps into
Southwest Alaska through Wed afternoon. A 968 mb low 205 nm West 
of Attu loops to 400 nm North of Attu at 955 mb Tue afternoon 
shifting to 285 nm North of Adak at 958 mb Wed afternoon. Its 
front pushes over the Alaska Peninsula for Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-021230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021230-
Bristol Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt except SW 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
15 ft. From Port Moller E, seas 6 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. From Port
Moller E, SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
From Port Moller E, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021230-
Unalaska Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft building to 20 ft after midnight.
.WED...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft.
.WED...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021230-
Adak to Kiska-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 28 ft after
midnight.
.WED...W wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021230-
Kiska to Attu-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 60 kt becoming W 45 kt after midnight. Seas
28 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 60 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.WED...W wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-021230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 25 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 40 kt 
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt becoming SE
20 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt.
Seas 18 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A ridge of high pressure remains parked over the state today,
continuing the trend for fair weather across much of the Mainland.
The area of low pressure responsible for the gusty southeasterly
winds across the central and eastern Aleutians yesterday has now
moved into the northwestern Bering. A strong gradient between the
high over the mainland and the low pressure over the Bering Sea
is maintaining the strong south to southeast wind along the Bering
Sea coast and over the eastern Bering Sea. An upper level North
Pacific low is currently situated just south of Dutch Harbor. The
leading front associated with this low will continue to bring
southeasterly winds along the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN. Radar
imagery this morning indicates rain and low level stratus and fog
along the coastal areas of Southwest Alaska as the front
approaches.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, models remain in good synoptic agreement through the next
48 hours. Differences arise by Tue morning as the remnants of
typhoon Trami enter the western Bering. Models currently agree on
the phasing of the upper level low currently south of Dutch
Harbor with the upper level remnants of Trami beginning Mon
evening over the central Bering. At this time, the GFS/EC solution
shows a slightly faster track while the NAM keeps the low further
west. With large uncertainties in timing and position, GFS was
still preferred with this morning's forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
The main issue will be with the potential for stratus and fog
this morning and again overnight tonight. The latest satellite
imagery (nighttime microphysics) did not show any stratus in the
northern Inlet, although that was from around 1030Z. At this
point we will stick some IFR Cigs and Vsby in for this morning
then VCFG for the late night and morning hours again tonight and
Mon morning, though generally keeping the prevailing conditions
VFR with light wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the
region for the next two days with the only exception being Kodiak
which will see a front move over that area tomorrow. With the high
pressure, the only real question will be the development of fog.
A nighttime microphysics pass from the VIIRS satellite taken
around 2:30 AM AKDT shows the development of fog in the river
valleys of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, eastern Turnagain Arm, as
well as in the Eagle River and Eklutna River valleys. The Copper
River Basin, which had some extensive fog and stratus yesterday is
almost completely clear of fog at this time. Fog should overall
be less than yesterday, with some areas developing again Sunday
night into Monday morning. Temperatures will remain well above
normal today and tomorrow for most of southcentral Alaska with a
cooling trend back toward normal after that.

A front will move over Kodiak Island from the southwest tomorrow
and bring back rain to the area as well as strong southeast
winds. This front will then slowly progress northward through
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Winds will remain the focus across Southwest Alaska through
Monday as a tight pressure gradient lingers over the region. The
gradient is the result of a stationary ridge situated downstream
in the northern Gulf and a trough upstream extending across the
eastern Bering. As the next surface low begins to track northeast
toward the AKPEN today, the gradient will tighten and the
southeasterly winds will increase, especially across Bristol Bay
and the Kuskokwim Delta with the highest speeds along the coasts.
Scattered showers will also develop along the coast later today
and continue through Monday as the low dissipates and transitions
to an open wave. For upslope areas of the AKPEN, the persistent
southerly flow will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain. Any
lingering showers from the now dissipating trough will move inland
on Tuesday as an occluded front extending from a strong storm
system over the western Bering advances toward the Southwest with
another shot of rain and gusty southerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A low well south of Atka will move toward Dutch Harbor today. The
rain and gusty southeasterly winds that developed overnight across
the eastern Bering will continue through early Monday before
diminishing as the low tracks north and fills in. Over the
central Bering, gusty northerly flow will increase tonight around
the back side of the low passing to the south and east. Then all
eyes turn to the remnants of typhoon Trami as it tracks quickly
toward the western Aleutians. This system will transition to a
powerful extratropical storm as it taps into a cold air mass over
the Kamchatka Peninsula. Storm-force winds will move over Shemya
and Attu Monday as its associated front sweeps across the western
Aleutians. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact track
of this low once it passes west of Attu; however, current guidance
continues to place the center of circulation well north and west
of the Aleutians. If this trend holds, it is looking more likely
that the core of strongest winds associated with the colder air
wrapping underneath the low will remain over the open waters of
the western and central Bering through Tuesday where gusts could
approach 70 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Wednesday through Saturday)

A very unsettled pattern will persist for the middle to latter
part of the week, as the remnants of the former Super Typhoon
Trami, which is currently near Japan, move northeast towards the
western Bering Sea. It is expected to then turn eastward as it
merges with a trough coming off the Kamchatka Peninsula. The
numerical models all agree in this scenario, but they differ in
speed and strength as the system bumps into a persistent ridge
stretching from the North Slope through the Kenai Peninsula, and
into the Gulf. Initially, the models are in good agreement with
the pattern aloft on Wednesday, but they quickly begin to diverge
some 24 hours later, as the GFS looks to have a faster progression
with the system as the ridge slides off to the east while
weakening.

This storm will be unusually strong for the Bering Sea for this
time of year, as it will be 3 to 4 standard deviations above
normal. Most of the region along and north of the western
Aleutians will see storm force winds with hurricane force gusts
likely. An associated occluded front will cross into southwestern
parts of the state by evening, with widespread rainfall
accompanying it, with another low developing near Kodiak. This
rainfall will also spread northeast during the evening and into
Thursday for most of Southcentral and the Kenai/Prince William
Sound region.

Meanwhile, another north Pacific low will strengthen as it
crosses the central portions of the chain, lifting north towards
Saint Matthew Island on Friday, while sending another front
through the southwest with more rainfall developing. Similar to
its predecessor, another Kodiak low will form Friday evening,
reaching Prince William Sound late Saturday, spreading widespread
rainfall across all of Southcentral and into the Copper River
Basin. However, it's important to note that as we approach next
weekend, model diversity increases somewhat, which is typical
given its 5 to 7 days out. Added to the mix is that everything is
dependent on if the models handle the first extra-tropical system
correctly, so forecast changes are probable for the latter half
of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 150-170 172 174 177 180 181.
		 Storm 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO/SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...PD