Gale Warning 494, NWS Anchorage, AK

136 
FZAK62 PAFC 011138
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020130-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 985 mb low at 52N 163W moves over Bristol Bay at 994 mb Mon
evening and then dissipates. A 960 mb low enters the western
Bering Mon afternoon and moves to 56N 178E at 953 mb Tue night.

$$

PKZ411-020130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming S 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 9 to 15 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

491 
FZAK62 PAFC 012347
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-021330-
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 990 mb low at 56N 162W moves to 59N 165W at 995 mb dissipating 
Tue morning. Its front wraps into Southwest Alaska through Wed 
afternoon. A 968 mb low near 53N 168E loops to 59N 174E at 955 mb 
Tue afternoon shifting to 56N 177W at 958 mb Wed afternoon. Its 
front pushes over the Alaska Peninsula for Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-021330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-021330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 13 to
19 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-021330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-021330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

877 
FZAK62 PAFC 021150
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 AM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-030145-
350 AM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 995 mb low at 59N 165W dissipates Tue morning. A 960 mb low at
56N 174E moves to 55N 178E Tue night and then moves to 58N 172W
Wed night at 960 mb.

$$

PKZ411-030145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
350 AM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. N of 56 N, E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17
to 24 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. N of 56 N, E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 to 
34 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-030145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
350 AM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.WED...E of 175 W, S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E in the afternoon. W
of 175 W, SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 15 
to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-030145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
350 AM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-030145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
350 AM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

426 
FZAK62 PAFC 022342
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-031300-
342 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 950 mb low at 57N 174E loops to 60N 176W at 964 mb for Thu 
afternoon. Its front swings across the Aleutians and Bering into 
the Gulf of Alaska by Thu afternoon. Several troughs move across 
the Aleutians through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-031300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
342 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-031300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
342 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-031300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
342 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-031300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
342 PM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A ridge of high pressure remains parked over the state today,
continuing the trend for fair weather across much of the Mainland.
The area of low pressure responsible for the gusty southeasterly
winds across the central and eastern Aleutians yesterday has now
moved into the northwestern Bering. A strong gradient between the
high over the mainland and the low pressure over the Bering Sea
is maintaining the strong south to southeast wind along the Bering
Sea coast and over the eastern Bering Sea. An upper level North
Pacific low is currently situated just south of Dutch Harbor. The
leading front associated with this low will continue to bring
southeasterly winds along the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN. Radar
imagery this morning indicates rain and low level stratus and fog
along the coastal areas of Southwest Alaska as the front
approaches.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, models remain in good synoptic agreement through the next
48 hours. Differences arise by Tue morning as the remnants of
typhoon Trami enter the western Bering. Models currently agree on
the phasing of the upper level low currently south of Dutch
Harbor with the upper level remnants of Trami beginning Mon
evening over the central Bering. At this time, the GFS/EC solution
shows a slightly faster track while the NAM keeps the low further
west. With large uncertainties in timing and position, GFS was
still preferred with this morning's forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
The main issue will be with the potential for stratus and fog
this morning and again overnight tonight. The latest satellite
imagery (nighttime microphysics) did not show any stratus in the
northern Inlet, although that was from around 1030Z. At this
point we will stick some IFR Cigs and Vsby in for this morning
then VCFG for the late night and morning hours again tonight and
Mon morning, though generally keeping the prevailing conditions
VFR with light wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the
region for the next two days with the only exception being Kodiak
which will see a front move over that area tomorrow. With the high
pressure, the only real question will be the development of fog.
A nighttime microphysics pass from the VIIRS satellite taken
around 2:30 AM AKDT shows the development of fog in the river
valleys of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, eastern Turnagain Arm, as
well as in the Eagle River and Eklutna River valleys. The Copper
River Basin, which had some extensive fog and stratus yesterday is
almost completely clear of fog at this time. Fog should overall
be less than yesterday, with some areas developing again Sunday
night into Monday morning. Temperatures will remain well above
normal today and tomorrow for most of southcentral Alaska with a
cooling trend back toward normal after that.

A front will move over Kodiak Island from the southwest tomorrow
and bring back rain to the area as well as strong southeast
winds. This front will then slowly progress northward through
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Winds will remain the focus across Southwest Alaska through
Monday as a tight pressure gradient lingers over the region. The
gradient is the result of a stationary ridge situated downstream
in the northern Gulf and a trough upstream extending across the
eastern Bering. As the next surface low begins to track northeast
toward the AKPEN today, the gradient will tighten and the
southeasterly winds will increase, especially across Bristol Bay
and the Kuskokwim Delta with the highest speeds along the coasts.
Scattered showers will also develop along the coast later today
and continue through Monday as the low dissipates and transitions
to an open wave. For upslope areas of the AKPEN, the persistent
southerly flow will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain. Any
lingering showers from the now dissipating trough will move inland
on Tuesday as an occluded front extending from a strong storm
system over the western Bering advances toward the Southwest with
another shot of rain and gusty southerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A low well south of Atka will move toward Dutch Harbor today. The
rain and gusty southeasterly winds that developed overnight across
the eastern Bering will continue through early Monday before
diminishing as the low tracks north and fills in. Over the
central Bering, gusty northerly flow will increase tonight around
the back side of the low passing to the south and east. Then all
eyes turn to the remnants of typhoon Trami as it tracks quickly
toward the western Aleutians. This system will transition to a
powerful extratropical storm as it taps into a cold air mass over
the Kamchatka Peninsula. Storm-force winds will move over Shemya
and Attu Monday as its associated front sweeps across the western
Aleutians. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact track
of this low once it passes west of Attu; however, current guidance
continues to place the center of circulation well north and west
of the Aleutians. If this trend holds, it is looking more likely
that the core of strongest winds associated with the colder air
wrapping underneath the low will remain over the open waters of
the western and central Bering through Tuesday where gusts could
approach 70 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Wednesday through Saturday)

A very unsettled pattern will persist for the middle to latter
part of the week, as the remnants of the former Super Typhoon
Trami, which is currently near Japan, move northeast towards the
western Bering Sea. It is expected to then turn eastward as it
merges with a trough coming off the Kamchatka Peninsula. The
numerical models all agree in this scenario, but they differ in
speed and strength as the system bumps into a persistent ridge
stretching from the North Slope through the Kenai Peninsula, and
into the Gulf. Initially, the models are in good agreement with
the pattern aloft on Wednesday, but they quickly begin to diverge
some 24 hours later, as the GFS looks to have a faster progression
with the system as the ridge slides off to the east while
weakening.

This storm will be unusually strong for the Bering Sea for this
time of year, as it will be 3 to 4 standard deviations above
normal. Most of the region along and north of the western
Aleutians will see storm force winds with hurricane force gusts
likely. An associated occluded front will cross into southwestern
parts of the state by evening, with widespread rainfall
accompanying it, with another low developing near Kodiak. This
rainfall will also spread northeast during the evening and into
Thursday for most of Southcentral and the Kenai/Prince William
Sound region.

Meanwhile, another north Pacific low will strengthen as it
crosses the central portions of the chain, lifting north towards
Saint Matthew Island on Friday, while sending another front
through the southwest with more rainfall developing. Similar to
its predecessor, another Kodiak low will form Friday evening,
reaching Prince William Sound late Saturday, spreading widespread
rainfall across all of Southcentral and into the Copper River
Basin. However, it's important to note that as we approach next
weekend, model diversity increases somewhat, which is typical
given its 5 to 7 days out. Added to the mix is that everything is
dependent on if the models handle the first extra-tropical system
correctly, so forecast changes are probable for the latter half
of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 150-170 172 174 177 180 181.
		 Storm 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO/SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...PD