Gale Warning 83, NWS Anchorage, AK

857 
FZAK52 PAFC 261259
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-270200-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure remains in place over the central Bering through 
Sat night. A front over Shemya remains nearly stationary through 
Sat night.

$$

PKZ150-270200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt in the morning out of bays and
passes. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-270200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 45 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, N wind 40 kt
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 60 kt in the morning. 
Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt except N 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-270200-
Bristol Bay-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-270200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt except N 30 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt except N 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 13 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-270200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-270200-
Unalaska Bay-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-270200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-270200-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-270200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-270200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-270200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-270200-
Adak to Kiska-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-270200-
Kiska to Attu-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-270200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-270200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-270200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-270200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
359 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island, SE 25 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island, SE 25 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island, SE 25 kt W of Saint 
Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level ridge has shifted west over the central Aleutians
and continues to amplify extending north across the Bering and
building into eastern Russia as a deep surface low tracks north
across the tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula and a developing north
Pacific low tracks north towards the western Aleutians. To the
east, the cold upper level low/arctic trough now stretches from
western Alaska, south-southeast across to the Kenai Peninsula and
is digging south towards western Gulf. In response, a surface low
is being pulled across the northern Gulf and tracking towards
Prince William Sound with an accompanying moderate to heavy at
times band of snow sweep from east to west across the northern
Gulf coast. Strong northwesterly outflow winds continue through
terrain gaps for the Alaska Peninsula, across Kodiak Island and to
the northern Gulf Coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
While models start in fairly good agreement early on, differences
in the timing and track of all the small lows and troughs spinning
around the Gulf increase rapidly from Friday morning onward. For
the western domain, models remain in better agreement as the large
scale blocking ridge and persistent cold north to northwesterly
flow down its eastern side continues to dominate the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist into the afternoon, however
light snow spreading in from the east will drop conditions to MVFR
at times from late afternoon through the evening. Snow will taper
in the late evening with VFR conditions prevail from there onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper low centered near McGrath this morning will dive strait
south today, reaching Kodiak Island this evening then into the
southwest Gulf of Alaska. As a result, the upper level flow will
switch to south and then southeast later today. This will allow
moisture to push across Southcentral, bringing chances of snow to
most of the area. As the upper low continues to drop south on
Friday, the main moisture band will also move south into the Gulf.
The flow aloft will be weak as Southcentral will be at the
southern end of a "col" over central and northeast Alaska. On
Friday night a surface low will cross the northern Gulf from east
to west, bringing increasing chances of precipitation to the coast
and surrounding mountains. Uncertainty in timing is high, as the
models are not in very good agreement with this low.

Temperatures will remain below normal for the next couple of days
as the air mass will remain quite cold, and low level offshore
flow will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Frigid sub-zero temperatures will continue across all of the
southwest mainland today into Friday as the upper low dropping out
of the interior descends upon the area accompanied by some of the
coldest air so far this winter, with 850 mb temperatures on the
order of -30 deg C. This cold advection will coincide with
increasing winds out of the north as the gradient is strengthened
by a building ridge over the Bering and a north-south oriented 115
kt jet streak helping to dig the mainland trough. This will
create wind chill concerns area wide, but particularly across
inland portions of the Kuskokwim Delta, where a Wind Chill
Advisory remains in effect from this evening through Friday
morning. There is also potential for wind chills to approach
advisory criteria from the Lower Kuskokwim Valley into interior
Bristol Bay this evening, but this threat should be shorter lived
this evening as temperatures actually warm overnight behind the
departing low and the strongest winds remain just off to the west
over the Delta. Will continue to monitor this potential throughout
the day. As mentioned above, temperatures will rebound somewhat
by Friday behind the departing low, although temperatures will
still struggle to break zero for locations not along the immediate
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Numerous convective snow showers will continue to impact the
Alaska Peninsula through Friday as northerly flow increases and
the frigid air mass associated with the mainland low streams over
the relatively warm waters of the southeast Bering. These showers
will finally begin to diminish in intensity by Friday night,
though not stop completely, as the upper low drops south of the
area and into the Pacific. Meanwhile, much more benign conditions
can be expected across the central Bering as the latest ridge
builds overhead. A front will bring a rain/snow mix and gusty
southeast winds to the western tip of the Aleutians, but will fail
to make much eastward progress through Friday as it encounters
the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The Arctic trough that will dive southward through the Mainland
and into the Gulf late this week will begin tracking into the
North Pacific for the weekend. This will allow for the blocking
ridge that has setup over the Bering to move eastward, bringing
generally clear skies, below normal temperatures and outflow
winds throughout the Gulf Coast into early next week. This small
change in the pattern will limit chances of precipitation to just
the Gulf Coast late Friday-Saturday, as the remnants of a weak low
moving through the North Gulf diminishes. After this occurs,
little in the way of precipitation is expected throughout the
South Mainland looking into early next week.

For the Eastern Aleutians/Bering, the persistent and gusty
northwest flow and widespread snow showers currently over the area
will come to an end on Saturday as the flow weakens and becomes
easterly. The Western Bering/Aleutians will however see little
overall change to the current pattern as southerly flow will continues
to bring a series of gale force fronts and rain to the area until
this weekend. Model agreement is very good into early next week
that even they will begin to see a break in the rain/wind as
ridging expands westward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 131 (for Thompson Pass).
         Wind Chill Advisories 145 155.
MARINE...Gale Warning 121 127 130 131 132 138 150 155 165 170 171
            172 178 180 411 414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 127 129 130 138 139 140
            141 150 160 180 181 185 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DEK