Gale Warning 85, NWS Anchorage, AK

848 
FZAK51 PAFC 261230
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-270130-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 mb low over Kodiak Island weakens and dissipates this
morning. A second 991 mb low 160 nm south of Yakutat moves over 
Kodiak Island and dissipates tonight at 1014 mb. A complex 1000 mb
low 380 nm south of Sitkinak tonight reorganizes and strengthens 
to 980 mb 540 nm southeast of Sitkinak Sat night.

$$

PKZ119-270130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-270130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-270130-
Resurrection Bay-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-270130-
Prince William Sound-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-270130-
Port Valdez-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-270130-
Valdez Narrows-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ128-270130-
Valdez Arm-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-270130-
Passage Canal-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-270130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-270130-
Barren Islands East-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-270130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NW wind 20 kt in the
morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-270130-
Chiniak Bay-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-270130-
Marmot Bay-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-270130-
Shelikof Strait-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-270130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-270130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-270130-
Kachemak Bay-
330 AM AKST Fri Jan 26 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The general pattern over the state remains the same but the
blocking ridge over the Bering Sea has amplified as the low over
the Interior has dropped southward. A short wave over Prince
William Sound today has moved westward faster than expected
which ended the snowfall in Cordova faster than forecast and is
bringing snow into the Anchorage area and Mat-Su Valleys much
quicker than anticipated.

The tight pressure gradient remains along the North Gulf coast
bringing gusty outflow winds through channeled terrain. The
surface low in the Gulf and high center over the central Aleutians
is also keeping the region from Kodiak Island though the Alaska
Peninsula with gusty northwest winds.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement. As mentioned earlier,
the upper level wave over western Prince William Sound is moving
westward about 6 hours quicker than indicated on 06Z and 12Z model
runs from earlier today. The biggest forecast uncertainty remains
the meso-lows that will develop in the Gulf of Alaska the next
few days. This will impact Kodiak Island more than anywhere else
making the timing for forecasting periods of snow and peak winds
difficult.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Snow arrived a little earlier than expected today and
will also end sooner as well. MVFR conditions will improve this
evening as the snow tapers off. Ceilings may remain below 5000 ft
for a good part of the night but the trend will be toward VFR
conditions for tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Friday and
Saturday)...
An upper level low representing the core of the coldest air
across Alaska is quickly sliding south across the far side of the
Alaska Range. Meanwhile, the upper level divergence to the east of
the upper low has spun up a weak surface low across the Gulf.
This is taking advantage of the upper level southeasterly winds
and relatively weak low level winds, allowing Gulf moisture to
move into Southcentral and the Cook Inlet region this afternoon.
The axis of the strongest moisture will drift south overnight,
resulting in the snow ending from north to south. With such cold
temperatures in the clouds, ongoing snowfall will continue to be
slow to accumulate.

Southcentral warms up over the next couple days with temperatures
returning back to around normal for this time of year. However,
without true warm air anywhere in sight, temperatures will remain
well below freezing, so all snow that falls will stick around. Gap
winds through the passes and the Matanuska Valley will continue,
becoming the only real weather hazard for Southcentral going into
the weekend as any snow threats relegate themselves to the coast
and mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days through 3)...
(Tonight through Monday morning)
Frigid conditions will prevail through tomorrow morning, before a
moderating trend commences. An area of high pressure across the
west central Aleutians and waves of low pressure across the
northern/eastern Gulf will help maintain a tight pressure gradient
across the Southwest Mainland tonight. As a disturbance continues
to drop south across the region, skies will clear from north to
south. This along with increasing winds will allow temperatures
to plummet tonight, with the upper Kuskokwim Delta (zone 155)
likely experiencing wind chill values of -40 degrees or lower and
sustained winds of at least 15 mph overnight. Thus, the current
wind chill advisory remains in effect. Further east, the overnight
lows will be lighter. However wind speeds will be light enough to
preclude issuance of a headline here, while temperatures are warm
enough to keep wind chill values below criteria for the Bristol
Bay region.

As the area of high pressure lifts northward and re-centers over
eastern Siberia tomorrow and the core of colder air aloft
continues southward with the upper-level disturbance, 850mb
temperatures look to warm by as much as 25 to 30 degrees Celsius.
This will allow for a (more gradual) moderating trend in surface
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days through 3)...
(Tonight through Monday morning)
An area of surface high pressure will lift northward from the
west central portions of the Aleutian chain to eastern Siberia by
tomorrow, while an upper-level low drops southward across the
AKpen through tomorrow morning. A strengthening 850mb wind field
on the backside of the low between these systems will promote
storm force gusts across the southern waters east of Dutch Harbor.
The strongest winds will occur south of the peninsula near False
Pass eastward towards the Shumagin Islands, where the jet core
aloft crosses the region, helping to increase downward momentum
potential via mixing and cold advection. This may be augmented
with any heavier convective shower as well.

Further west, as the ridge lifts northward, the pressure gradient
will weaken for the eastern half of the Bering/Aleutians, while
maintaining fairly light winds for all of the region. The
exception to this will be west of Shemya, where a stalled front
will be preceded by gale force winds and some showery type
precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Models are in good agreement that the blocking high that extends
from the mainland all the way through the central Bering will
continue to hold on through the middle of next week. Beginning
Sunday, a low will move into the Gulf of Alaska, but this is
expected to move off toward the Panhandle while the mainland
remains dry. The main impact from this approaching low will be to
tighten the gradient over the coastal areas; this combined with
the cold air dome settling over the Interior will cause gap winds
to increase Sunday into Monday, bringing cold and windy weather to
eastern Prince William Sound.

By Tuesday afternoon, a low pressure system begins to approach the
Central Aleutians from the northern Pacific. This is expected to
bring warmer air through the Central Bering through the end of
next week. There is much uncertainty on the placement of this
system and the associated front. Depending on the model solution,
the warm air may progress into the Gulf of Alaska, or it may
remain in the Bering Sea. The differences in the placement of the
low and the front will make the difference between a cold and dry
or a warm and wet forecast, so at this time, confidence in the
long term forecast is low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 131 (Thompson Pass)
		 Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray 121 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 140
						      141 150 160 180 181 185.
Storm Warning 130 131 155.
Gale Warning 127 128 132 138 150 160 165 170 171 172 178 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...LF