Gale Warning 641, NWS Anchorage, AK

022 
FZAK61 PAFC 160034
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-161415-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 986 mb low at 49N 155W moves to 56N 156W at 996 mb then 
dissipates Sat morning. Its front pushes over the North Gulf Coast
through Sat afternoon. A 993 mb low forms near 52N 160W on Sat 
morning and slips to 56N 155W at 987 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-161415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt by midnight.
Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft after midnight.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 35 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-161415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

153 
FZAK61 PAFC 161248
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-170200-
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 992 mb low at 53N 154W Fri morning moves over the Alaska 
Peninsula by Sat morning and weakens. Its front moves into 
the North Gulf Coast through Sat afternoon. A second front 
enters the Gulf through Sun morning.

$$

PKZ351-170200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-170200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

819 
FZAK61 PAFC 170025
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-171430-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 995 mb low at 55N 155W dissipates Sat morning. Its front spreads
across the North Gulf Coast through Sun morning. A second front
enters the Western Gulf Sat afternoon and slides to the Central
Gulf by Sun afternoon. A 996 mb low near 55N 147W Sun morning 
moves along the front to 57N 146W by Sun afternoon.


$$

PKZ351-171430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-171430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 PM AKST Wed Nov 14 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Alaska
which is amplifying and merging with an upper level high over the
northwest Alaska coast. A weak upper level low is in the vicinity
of St Matthew Island with a trough extending over the Eastern
Aleutians with another upper level ridge to the west of this
feature over the Western Aleutians. None of these features are
very strong which is keeping the active weather outside of the
forecast area today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are all seeing the same synoptic features and pattern
through the weekend which is good. However, when comparing the
details of the features with each model, it gives a rather
'sloppy' look. The phasing of a low moving into the Gulf on
Saturday with a low moving into Bristol Bay is detected by all the
models, but there are distinct timing differences which are
important in determining the timing of the warm air moving into
the region and the resulting precipitation type. Overall, the GFS
is being looked upon with the most favor for this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog is the big concern through Thursday (and Thursday
night). While it cleared out over the airport early this morning
and did not become widespread after that, there is a good chance
that it will return tonight and persist through tomorrow morning.
This is due to the upper level ridge building in through Thursday
which will help cause more subsidence and therefore a more stable
atmosphere which is conducive for fog and stratus. There is a
chance that it could be more stratus than fog tonight, but limited
ceilings and/or visibilities look likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Surface ridging across the southern mainland will keep the region
dry through Thursday. The main challenge tonight is fog
development. A persistence forecast for fog was used for tonight
as the pattern remains unchanged across the mainland. Fog may
linger through late Thursday morning as a more stable air mass
establishes tonight.

The next front pushes across the southern Gulf Thursday night
into Friday. Gale force winds and rain are expected to develop
along the boundary which moves across Kodiak Island early Friday
morning then to the Gulf coast during the afternoon. Fog coverage
Friday morning will mainly linger over the Copper River Basin due
to the ridge losing its hold over the southern mainland.
Precipitation along the front is expected to change over to rain
fairly quickly with this system as a southeasterly low level jet
develops, aiding the warm subtropical air mass to surge inland.
However, northerly flow along the western Cook Inlet keeps this
area on the cooler side as the front moves across during the
morning which brings chances for mixed precipitation and light
freezing rain through the afternoon. The highest precipitation
amounts are expected along the Gulf coast as low level easterly
flow limits accumulations inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Offshore flow continues this evening, and this is keeping the
region dry and largely free from fog. Some low stratus developed
over the Lower Kusko Valley, and that may redevelop again
overnight since it never fully burned off and the upper pattern is
not changing much.

Attention quickly turns to a North Pacific warm front moving from
the south on Thursday afternoon and evening. This will bring in
more widespread precipitation with chances for rain, snow, and
freezing rain, depending on location. As is typical with this
pattern, rain is likely near coastal areas in Bristol Bay and down
wind of the Alaska Range with snow over interior valleys. Expect a
changeover to rain or a mix of freezing rain by Friday as the
front moves inland but also weakens. On Saturday, another
reinforcing front will move in, bringing in even more warm air
with threats for interior rain/mixed rain and snow with potential
isolated areas of freezing rain in prone valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Widespread northerly flow continues to deliver cold air over much
of the Bering. A period of Gale force winds will affect the
western Aleutians on Thursday as a front associated with a
Kamchatka low enters the western Bering beginning overnight
tonight. This front quickly loses steam as it stretches out into
the central Bering, allowing those Gale force winds to diminish
by Fri afternoon. In addition to Gale force winds, precipitation
across the western Aleutians will begin as snow tonight before
quickly transitioning to rain by Thursday morning.

A second front inbound from the North Pacific will lift over the
southern AKPEN Thursday morning, bringing gusty easterly flow and
a period of Gale force winds near the southern coast of the
AKPEN. In addition, the warm moist air mass associated with this
front will interact with the cooler drier air already in place and
will bring chances of wintry precipitation across the Pribilofs
and eastern Bering through Friday morning transitioning to all
rain by Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
The long-term forecast begins Saturday night with a surface low
weakening east of Kodiak Island and its associated occluded front
draped along the coast bringing another round of mixed wintry
precipitation to Southcentral Alaska. A second trough follows on
the heels of the first moving through the Gulf and impacting the
Southcentral coast Sunday. Yet another trough slides across the
gulf on Monday, with the GFS bringing it closer to Southcentral
while the EC slides the system farther east toward the Alaska
Panhandle. All of this is in response to an upper-level trough
situated along the western Alaska coast ejecting a series of
shortwaves through the Gulf as it slowly moves across the mainland
over the weekend. Confidence remains above average that
conditions will remain wet and unsettled across southern Alaska
through the weekend while under the influence of the long-wave
trough. There is less confidence, however, in the timing of the
mid-level shortwaves and associated surface features (and hence
precipitation and wind along the coast) as the GFS and EC continue
to disagree in their exact track through the Gulf.

Guidance then goes completely off the rails moving into early next
week with very low confidence in any solution overall. The main
issue is with the upper-level solutions between the GFS and EC,
specifically with the development of an upper-level low over
eastern Russia and a shortwave tracking across the Aleutians. The
EC is much faster in moving the Aleutian shortwave east and while
suppressing the ridge over the the central and eastern Bering as
it tracks well south of the AKPEN and shears apart by Tuesday in
conjunction with the trailing upper level low now in the Bering.
The GFS keeps the eastern Russia low in place on Monday allowing
the Aleutian shortwave to intensify and move quickly into the
Bering while pushing an amplified ridge over southwest Alaska. The
shortwave then reaches the west coast by late Monday. A secondary
low then develops south of the AKPEN and moves into the Gulf for
mid-week.

The GFS has had the better run to run consistency of the suite of
long-term guidance and is favored over the EC. This would keep
wet weather over the southern mainland through the weekend with a
brief drying trend late Sunday through late Monday across the
southwest and Monday through late Tuesday across Southcentral
(especially the interior) before more wet weather returns.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130>132 138 150 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA/KO
LONG TERM...TM