Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2018
Gale Warning 640, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Nov 14, 2018, 3:38 PM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 14, 2018, 3:38 PM AKST (00:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 16, 2018, 3:33 PM AKST
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
142 FZAK62 PAFC 150038 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 338 PM AKST Wed Nov 14 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-151430- 338 PM AKST Wed Nov 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 1002 mb low near 54N 169W moves to 62N 172w at 999 mb for Fri afternoon. Its front extends over the Eastern Bering through Fri afternoon. High pressure sweeps the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula by Fri afternoon. A 986 mb low at 48N 176E extends a front into the Eastern Aleutians by Fri afternoon. $$ PKZ411-151430- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 338 PM AKST Wed Nov 14 2018 ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. .THU NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain. .FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .SAT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. .MON...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. $$ PKZ412-151430- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 338 PM AKST Wed Nov 14 2018 .TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .THU...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. .THU NIGHT...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. .SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ413-151430- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 338 PM AKST Wed Nov 14 2018 .TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .THU...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain. .FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .MON...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ414-151430- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 338 PM AKST Wed Nov 14 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. .THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. .SAT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$
5 follow-up statements
263 FZAK62 PAFC 151223 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 323 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-160145- 323 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 984 mb North Pacific low at 47N 157W Thu morning moves to 52N 154W at 995 mb by Fri morning and moves over the Alaska Peninsula and dissipates by Sat morning. A 983 mb low Fri morning at 49N 168E moves to 53N 176W at 990 mb by Sat morning. $$ PKZ411-160145- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 323 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Patchy fog. .TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain with snow. .FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. $$ PKZ412-160145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 323 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .TODAY...NW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind up to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. .SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .MON...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. $$ PKZ413-160145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 323 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain and snow. .FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain and snow. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ414-160145- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 323 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SAT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$
383 FZAK62 PAFC 151243 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 343 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-160145- 343 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 984 mb North Pacific low at 47N 157W Thu morning moves to 52N 154W at 995 mb by Fri morning and moves over the Alaska Peninsula and dissipates by Sat morning. A 983 mb low Fri morning at 49N 168E moves to 53N 176W at 990 mb by Sat morning. $$ PKZ411-160145- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 343 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Patchy fog. .TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain with snow. .FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. $$ PKZ412-160145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 343 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .TODAY...NW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind up to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. .SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .MON...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. $$ PKZ413-160145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 343 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain and snow. .FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain and snow. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ414-160145- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 343 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SAT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. $$
802 FZAK62 PAFC 160038 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 338 PM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-161430- 338 PM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 1006 mb low at 61N 172W loops to 63N 174W at 1000 mb and dissipates Sat morning. Its front pushes into Western Alaska through Sat afternoon. A 975 mb low near 49N 163E swings to 56N 168W at 991 mb for Sat afternoon. Its front rides over the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula by Sat afternoon. $$ PKZ411-161430- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 338 PM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow. .FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow. .FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .SAT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. $$ PKZ412-161430- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 338 PM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE up to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Rain and snow. .SAT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. .TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ413-161430- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 338 PM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain and snow. .FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain and snow. .FRI NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain. .SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. $$ PKZ414-161430- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 338 PM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$
420 FZAK62 PAFC 161221 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 321 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-170215- 321 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 992 mb low 270 nm south of Akhiok Fri morning moves over the Alaska Peninsula by Sat morning and weakens. A 982 mb low Fri morning 300 mb southwest of Shemya moves near Adak at 989 mb by Sat morning and then to 70 nm south of Cape Newenham at 988 mb by Sun morning. $$ PKZ411-170215- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 321 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. $$ PKZ412-170215- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 321 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 .TODAY...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. .SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. $$ PKZ413-170215- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 321 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 .TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. .SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. $$ PKZ414-170215- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 321 AM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 .TODAY...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. .SAT...W wind up to 10 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. $$
454 FZAK62 PAFC 170033 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 333 PM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-171445- 333 PM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 989 mb low at 48N 177E moves to 57N 146W at 993 mb for Sun afternoon. Its front wraps over the Bering and Southwest Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska by Sun afternoon. A 993 mb low near 54N 169W slips to 58N 153W at 985 mb then inland Sat evening. Its front pushes across the Alaska Peninsula through Sun afternoon. $$ PKZ411-171445- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 333 PM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 .TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .SAT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. .SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .WED...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ412-171445- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 333 PM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Rain and snow showers. .SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .MON...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. .WED...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. $$ PKZ413-171445- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 333 PM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 .TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. .SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. .WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ414-171445- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 333 PM AKST Fri Nov 16 2018 .TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .SAT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. .SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. .MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 14, 4:45 AM AKST, 10 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 14, 4:45 AM AKST, 10 hours 53 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 445 AM AKST Wed Nov 14 2018 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... There is a surface low south of Kodiak with an occlusion wrapped into it with a second decaying low situated south of False Pass. A third low south of the Central Aleutians is undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, which is also where the jet core is located. There is a ridge axis building over the Western Aleutians. On the satellite which has been verified in multiple surface based observation platforms, there has been fog over portions of Anchorage Bowl, Knik Arm and the Kenai Peninsula. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... The models are decent agreement with the synoptic features through Thursday, after which the solutions begin to diverge. The area that is the biggest eye sore is the new low in the North Pacific, which is on a course for the AKPEN. With the ridge in place over Southcentral, fog will remain the main forecast challenge. && .AVIATION... PANC...Patchy fog from yesterday evening quickly turned into dense fog overnight. Fog often ebbs and flows resulting in fluctuations in visibility which was observed in the early hours of this morning. The current thinking is that the atmosphere is stable enough to hold onto the fog until as late at 10 am. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today through Thursday night)... High pressure will build over Southcentral Alaska the next couple days as the current low over the Gulf exits off to Southeast Alaska. Surface inversions already in place across much of the region will only strengthen as the ridge builds in. Thus, expect areas of dense fog to persist through at least Thursday, especially in the Cook Inlet region. This includes the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and portions of the Mat-Su. The Copper River Basin would be the other area favored for persistent fog. Areas not in the fog can expect abundant sunshine during the daytime. Colder air filtering down from the north will support northerly flow and localized gap winds along the coast, including Seward, Whittier, and Thompson Pass areas. As far as gap wind events go, this one will be quite weak. As the ridge begins to slide eastward Thursday night, a storm system will lift northward from the Pacific, with a gale force front bringing rain and wind to Kodiak Island Thursday night. If there is any fog remaining over Southcentral (which is a distinct possibility), increasing clouds (and eventually precipitation) should clear it out Thursday night or Friday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Wed through Fri)...The relative "lull" in the pattern will continue through Thu. The only weather features of substance are the snow showers along the YK-Delta coast and the low stratus across much of the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta. The snow showers are associated with a baroclinic zone that is nearly stationary over the Hooper Bay area. This feature should begin a slide to the west over the open ocean later today. The other problem is the low stratus currently stuck across much of the northern interior of the region. The offshore surface winds have been enough to keep any fog from forming thus far. However, a fairly dense shield of stratus is in place. As high pressure settles over the area today and winds begin to relax, it could be difficult to break this stratus up. If the stratus does break and some radiational cooling can take place tonight into Thu, there should be a better chance for fog Thu morning. Yet another warm system starts to press up into Bristol Bay by late Thu into early Fri. This system will bring another round of east to southeast winds, especially through the usual gaps. There should be enough cold air back in the valleys of SW AK to allow precipitation to at least start as snow. However, as warm air moves overhead and southeast winds mixing down to the surface, expect precipitation to change over to rain rather quickly. There is an outside shot for some freezing rain once again in this scenario, but at this time the surface temperatures look to warm too quickly to add it into the forecast. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3...Wed through Fri)... The majority of the Bering will be dominated by colder northerly flow and rain (turning to snow) showers today before a few systems move in/take shape on Thu. First, what were once strong storm- force northerlies have diminished all the way down to just barely small- craft level winds over the Central Bering. This flow will continue to abate today. However, the cold air over the Central and Western Bering will work in tandem with some warmer air over the Eastern Bering. This will create an environment ripe for continued showers and even for a surface low to develop near St Matthew Island late Thu. Moisture and warm air will move back into Bristol Bay as another warm front slides into the area from the N Pacific late Thu. This will bring an increase in easterly winds and widespread stratiform rain and snow. The other system is a weakening warm front that will push into the Western Aleutians early Thu. This system will bring gale-force easterly winds and steady precipitation. The precipitation will start as a mix of rain and snow before quickly transitioning to all rain as warm air plows in from the N Pacific. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... The long-term forecast begins Thursday night with an amplifying upper-level ridge moving from the Gulf over the Alaska Peninsula. Upstream, a negatively-tilted trough persists from the eastern Bering south to the western Gulf while a second trough deepens over the western Aleutians as a strengthening jet rounds its base. Through the first half of the weekend, the longwave pattern remains fairly progressive, with the leading ridge moving well inland over Canada as the main trough axis settles along the west coast of Alaska. Moving into early next week the eastward progression of the trough slows as it anchors over the eastern half of the state. Model agreement breaks down significantly after Monday, especially with their respective solutions upstream of the trough axis. The GFS is the more amplified solution, trying to build a ridge over the Bering ahead of the next trough exiting eastern Russia. The EC, on the other hand, keeps the pattern zonal with an active jet south of the Aleutians and a broad low over the Bering. The Canadian takes the middle ground with weak ridging over the Bering quickly replaced by a trough. What this means is that guidance in the medium and near long-term range (through the weekend) remains in good agreement with a wet and active pattern across much of the forecast area. Beyond that, there is some agreement of a trough/ridge/trough setup from the western Bering to the eastern Bering to the Gulf. But confidence on placement and intensity of these features is slim to none. At the surface, this translates to a low approaching Kodiak Island late Thursday with a trough extending across the Bering keeping things unsettled over Southwest Alaska. The low moves into the northern Gulf with its occluded front draped across the southcentral coast by early Friday. Farther west, a second surface low slides across the Aleutians Thursday into Friday with its occluded front nearing the southwest coast late Friday. A triple point low is also expected to form south of the AKPEN late Friday, moving into the western and northern Gulf through the weekend. This will keep conditions quite wet an unsettled over much of the mainland through the weekend with some drying likely for southwest Alaska by late Monday into Tuesday as a weak surface ridge tries to develop. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory 101 121. MARINE...Gale Warning 150 177 178. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO LONG TERM...TM
The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 3:24 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Nov 14, 3:25 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 4 days | |
| Nov 14, 3:25 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Nov 14, 3:38 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 61 hr | |
| Nov 14, 5:52 PM AKST | Dense Fog Advisory | AFC | 18 hr | |
| Nov 15, 3:57 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 35 hr | |
| Nov 15, 3:57 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 72 hr | |
| Nov 15, 3:57 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 72 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.