Gale Warning 52, NWS Anchorage, AK

961 
FZAK52 PAFC 121237
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130130-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 962 mb low in the North Pacific will move to 90 nm southeast of
Sand Point at 957 mb Sat morning then it will dissipate 80 nm
southwest of Sand Point Sat afternoon. A second low will move 
into the southwestern Gulf Sat morning then it will move to 90 nm
northeast of Chignik at 952 mb Sat afternoon then it will move to
50 nm southwest of Cape Newenham at 962 mb Sun morning. 

$$

PKZ150-130130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130130-
Bristol Bay-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-130130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt except NE 35 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 11
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130130-
Unalaska Bay-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft
building to 5 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130130-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130130-
Adak to Kiska-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130130-
Kiska to Attu-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-130130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-130130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
337 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level col that has been near Southcentral the past few
nights has dissipated and has been replaced with light
southwesterly flow in the midlevels. As a southwesterly flow is
generally parallel to many of southern Alaska's mountain ranges,
it has allowed widespread cloud cover to move in. This has
virtually eliminated any threat of cooling from here on out since
the clouds act as a blanket. A broad upper level low south of the
central Aleutians is in the process of consolidating, and has
turned the upper level flow more southeasterly over Southwest
Alaska. This has allowed an extensive cirrus shield to move in,
which too will temper any temperature drops. The influence of the
upper level low extends over nearly all of the Bering, thus,
extensive cloud cover is also present in that area.

Closer to the surface the first in a series of fronts is pushing
northward across the Gulf into the coast. This is producing some
light rain in Kodiak and along the immediate coast. Meanwhile the
precipitation changes over to snow through Cordova, Prince William
Sound, Whittier, and Valdez. A warmer air mass bringing in the
moisture is gradually eroding the cold air mass out, so
changeovers to rain are likely in the coming days. As expected,
temperatures inland have begun warming from their coldest lows of
the past couple nights. Everywhere, except the Copper Basin, now
rising through the teens away from the coast and nearing the
freezing mark already at the coast.

Over Southwest, the cloud cover and breezy conditions over the
area are keeping temperatures quite mild for most locations east
of the Kuskokwim Mountains, with many stations in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Residual cold air on a stiff northeast wind and
delayed arrival of the cloud cover from the south and east over
the Kuskokwim Delta are maintaining temperatures in the single
digits this morning. The weather pattern remains largely the same
across the Bering. Moisture-laden and a somewhat more unstable
air mass is causing showers over many locations in the Aleutians
and Bering with temperatures remaining generally steady in the
upper 30s.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The model agreement continues to decline as the pattern reorients
itself drawing new low pressure systems northward from out of the
Pacific instead of a stable pattern or one where the lows are
moving in from the Bering. With the Pacific being a data-sparse
region, the models do not initialize weather systems coming from
the south well. Thus the greatest disagreements in the models are
frequent in this pattern. While not unexpected, because of the
large model disagreements forecast confidence is lower than
normal.

The models begin to largely disagree as soon as Friday, as a piece
of energy in the jet stream translates into a new surface low
east of the parent low south of the Aleutians. Where this new
surface low develops is the point of contention between the
models. On the east side, an EC/Canadian blend was used through
Friday night, while GFS better handles the low on the west side.
By Saturday, a GFS/Canadian blend was the middle ground with an
even stronger low expected to follow much the same track as the
first; the low moving northwestward to the south of Kodiak Island
and into the Alaska Peninsula. Position and strength are
everything with this too regarding timing of the most hazardous
weather throughout Southern Alaska. The models are all over the
place in their answers to that problem. The EC is the fastest, the
NAM the slowest, so a GFS/Canadian blend was a nice middle
ground.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist through the
TAF period. Southeast winds developing over the airport later this
morning will lead to wind shear concerns, which will also persist
through the rest of the day today into Friday morning. Downslope
winds should keep any precipitation activity few and far between
in the Bowl, but a stray snow shower that may produce some
flurries to a quick coating can't be ruled out at anytime.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)...
The first signs of the incoming pattern change are
beginning to move into the Gulf with gale force winds, snow
showers, and temperatures rising to near freezing. These
conditions are expected to spread inland into Southcentral this
afternoon as a shortwave moves over the area bringing
temperatures back into the 20s with an outside chance of a light
snow shower. As has been advertised for the past few days, this
will be the beginning of a much warmer weather pattern that will
continue through the end of the work week as a series of gale
force fronts move to the north through the Gulf. Initially
temperatures should remain just cold enough to bring snow to sea
level along the Gulf Coast until Friday afternoon when enough warm
air is expected to arrive to switch over to rain. For the lee side
of the Chugach, downsloping should limit precipitation in the
Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley to only a slight chance for
light and intermittent periods of snow through Friday along with
gusty winds through Turnagain Arm and the Matanuska Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

High pressure over interior Alaska combined with low pressure over
the North Pacific is supporting a rather impressive offshore
pressure gradient. An occluded front will move toward Southwest
Alaska today, which will enhance the pressure gradient further
(meaning increasing northeast winds overnight). Moisture will
increase with the front overnight and will bring snow to coastal
SW Alaska before changing over to rain right along the immediate
coast of Bristol Bay. Inland locales, and locations next to the
Alaska/Aleutian Ranges/Kuskokwim/Kilbuck Mountains will remain
drier owing to efficient downslope flow given the easterly flow
direction aloft. The front will lift north and weaken Friday
afternoon with a return to drier conditions for the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

A North Pacific low south of Nikolski will slowly drift east as
the associated occluded front moves into the eastern Bering Sea
today and tonight. This will enhance the pressure gradient enough
to support gale force winds as the front lifts north. The front
will retrograde westward through Friday night with the strongest
core of northerly winds shifting west of the Pribilof Islands.
Expect large southwest swells to impact the far western Aleutian
Chain today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Ridging looks to setup over western Canada by Friday with a
longwave trough out over the Bering Sea. This will leave the
southern mainland in warm southerly flow into the middle of next
week when the pattern changes with the ridging finally moving
east. The southerly flow will keep the majority of the heavy
precip along the north Gulf coast and it looks to be predominately
rain. While the models are in decent agreement with the overall
pattern of the riding and longwave trough, they are struggling
with the placement of individual lows within the trough. This led
to ensembles being preferred in the long term over the
deterministic runs.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales: 119 120 125 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 160 165
				179 180 351 352 414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray: 127 139 140 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DK