Storm Warning 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 11, 2018, 3:10 PM AKST (00:10 UTC)

Expired

Jan 12, 2018, 3:45 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

424 
FZAK51 PAFC 120010
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-121245-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front along the north Gulf coast will remain stationary through
Fri. A second front will enter the southwestern Gulf this evening
and merge with the existing front over the northern Gulf on Fri 
afternoon, then weaken Fri night. Yet another front will quickly 
cross the Gulf on Sat. 

$$

PKZ119-121245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-121245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-121245-
Resurrection Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Snow with rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-121245-
Prince William Sound-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-121245-
Port Valdez-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-121245-
Valdez Narrows-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-121245-
Valdez Arm-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-121245-
Passage Canal-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-121245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-121245-
Barren Islands East-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-121245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-121245-
Chiniak Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-121245-
Marmot Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-121245-
Shelikof Strait-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-121245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-121245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-121245-
Kachemak Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Jan 11, 4:41 AM AKST, 10 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level col that has been near Southcentral the past few
nights has dissipated and has been replaced with light
southwesterly flow in the midlevels. As a southwesterly flow is
generally parallel to many of southern Alaska's mountain ranges,
it has allowed widespread cloud cover to move in. This has
virtually eliminated any threat of cooling from here on out since
the clouds act as a blanket. A broad upper level low south of the
central Aleutians is in the process of consolidating, and has
turned the upper level flow more southeasterly over Southwest
Alaska. This has allowed an extensive cirrus shield to move in,
which too will temper any temperature drops. The influence of the
upper level low extends over nearly all of the Bering, thus,
extensive cloud cover is also present in that area.

Closer to the surface the first in a series of fronts is pushing
northward across the Gulf into the coast. This is producing some
light rain in Kodiak and along the immediate coast. Meanwhile the
precipitation changes over to snow through Cordova, Prince William
Sound, Whittier, and Valdez. A warmer air mass bringing in the
moisture is gradually eroding the cold air mass out, so
changeovers to rain are likely in the coming days. As expected,
temperatures inland have begun warming from their coldest lows of
the past couple nights. Everywhere, except the Copper Basin, now
rising through the teens away from the coast and nearing the
freezing mark already at the coast.

Over Southwest, the cloud cover and breezy conditions over the
area are keeping temperatures quite mild for most locations east
of the Kuskokwim Mountains, with many stations in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Residual cold air on a stiff northeast wind and
delayed arrival of the cloud cover from the south and east over
the Kuskokwim Delta are maintaining temperatures in the single
digits this morning. The weather pattern remains largely the same
across the Bering. Moisture-laden and a somewhat more unstable
air mass is causing showers over many locations in the Aleutians
and Bering with temperatures remaining generally steady in the
upper 30s.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The model agreement continues to decline as the pattern reorients
itself drawing new low pressure systems northward from out of the
Pacific instead of a stable pattern or one where the lows are
moving in from the Bering. With the Pacific being a data-sparse
region, the models do not initialize weather systems coming from
the south well. Thus the greatest disagreements in the models are
frequent in this pattern. While not unexpected, because of the
large model disagreements forecast confidence is lower than
normal.

The models begin to largely disagree as soon as Friday, as a piece
of energy in the jet stream translates into a new surface low
east of the parent low south of the Aleutians. Where this new
surface low develops is the point of contention between the
models. On the east side, an EC/Canadian blend was used through
Friday night, while GFS better handles the low on the west side.
By Saturday, a GFS/Canadian blend was the middle ground with an
even stronger low expected to follow much the same track as the
first; the low moving northwestward to the south of Kodiak Island
and into the Alaska Peninsula. Position and strength are
everything with this too regarding timing of the most hazardous
weather throughout Southern Alaska. The models are all over the
place in their answers to that problem. The EC is the fastest, the
NAM the slowest, so a GFS/Canadian blend was a nice middle
ground.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist through the
TAF period. Southeast winds developing over the airport later this
morning will lead to wind shear concerns, which will also persist
through the rest of the day today into Friday morning. Downslope
winds should keep any precipitation activity few and far between
in the Bowl, but a stray snow shower that may produce some
flurries to a quick coating can't be ruled out at anytime.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)...
The first signs of the incoming pattern change are
beginning to move into the Gulf with gale force winds, snow
showers, and temperatures rising to near freezing. These
conditions are expected to spread inland into Southcentral this
afternoon as a shortwave moves over the area bringing
temperatures back into the 20s with an outside chance of a light
snow shower. As has been advertised for the past few days, this
will be the beginning of a much warmer weather pattern that will
continue through the end of the work week as a series of gale
force fronts move to the north through the Gulf. Initially
temperatures should remain just cold enough to bring snow to sea
level along the Gulf Coast until Friday afternoon when enough warm
air is expected to arrive to switch over to rain. For the lee side
of the Chugach, downsloping should limit precipitation in the
Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley to only a slight chance for
light and intermittent periods of snow through Friday along with
gusty winds through Turnagain Arm and the Matanuska Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

High pressure over interior Alaska combined with low pressure over
the North Pacific is supporting a rather impressive offshore
pressure gradient. An occluded front will move toward Southwest
Alaska today, which will enhance the pressure gradient further
(meaning increasing northeast winds overnight). Moisture will
increase with the front overnight and will bring snow to coastal
SW Alaska before changing over to rain right along the immediate
coast of Bristol Bay. Inland locales, and locations next to the
Alaska/Aleutian Ranges/Kuskokwim/Kilbuck Mountains will remain
drier owing to efficient downslope flow given the easterly flow
direction aloft. The front will lift north and weaken Friday
afternoon with a return to drier conditions for the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

A North Pacific low south of Nikolski will slowly drift east as
the associated occluded front moves into the eastern Bering Sea
today and tonight. This will enhance the pressure gradient enough
to support gale force winds as the front lifts north. The front
will retrograde westward through Friday night with the strongest
core of northerly winds shifting west of the Pribilof Islands.
Expect large southwest swells to impact the far western Aleutian
Chain today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Ridging looks to setup over western Canada by Friday with a
longwave trough out over the Bering Sea. This will leave the
southern mainland in warm southerly flow into the middle of next
week when the pattern changes with the ridging finally moving
east. The southerly flow will keep the majority of the heavy
precip along the north Gulf coast and it looks to be predominately
rain. While the models are in decent agreement with the overall
pattern of the riding and longwave trough, they are struggling
with the placement of individual lows within the trough. This led
to ensembles being preferred in the long term over the
deterministic runs.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales: 119 120 125 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 160 165
				179 180 351 352 414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray: 127 139 140 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DK

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2018Every storm warning in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.