Gale Warning 309, NWS Anchorage, AK

818 
FZAK52 PAFC 082359
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-091300-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 967 mb low 240 nm Northwest of Attu moves to 350 nm West of St 
Matthew Island at 990 mb Tue afternoon. Its front moves across the 
Bering through Tue afternoon. A 981 mb North Pacific low moves to 390
nm Southwest of Attu Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-091300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-091300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt except E 20 kt E of the Shumagin Islands. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind increasing to 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands 
E, E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-091300-
Bristol Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-091300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. From Port
Moller E, E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. From Port
Moller E, E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind increasing to 25 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind
20 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-091300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt in the morning becoming W 20 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-091300-
Unalaska Bay-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-091300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-091300-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-091300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-091300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-091300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-091300-
Adak to Kiska-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Bering side, seas 17 ft building to 26
ft after midnight. Pacific side, seas 22 ft building to 35 ft after 
midnight. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-091300-
Kiska to Attu-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Bering side, seas 24 ft building to 30 ft
after midnight. Pacific side, seas 36 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.MON...W wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.  Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-091300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 
ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-091300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray after midnight N of 
Cape Newenham.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray in the morning N of Cape Newenham. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Snow and
rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-091300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 
ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ185-091300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
359 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray N and E of Saint
Matthew Island. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray in the morning N and
E of Saint Matthew Island. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKDT Sat Apr 7 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Thinning stratus moving off the Chugach Range allowed for a wealth
of midday sun in Southcentral for the start of the first full
weekend of April. A weak lee-side surface trough was making this
possible.

From Kodiak to Unalaska, wraparound moisture from the low in the
Gulf of Alaska kept temperatures in check. Even though the
previous day's front dissipated, a lower cloud deck and rain was
still focused on Kodiak. Rain and snow fell in Unalaska. In
between, onshore flow to the AK Penisula's mountains created a
solid overcast for most, with the exception of Cold Bay which had
some morning sun.

An upper-level low nearing 170W is digging south of 50N helping
to pull in a North Pacific gale-force low along a weakening
occluded front. The front was moving over the Eastern Aleutians.
Another gale-force low is in the southern Bering.

Challenges today, tomorrow, and all of next week will be picking
a winner between incoming solar radiation, albedo, and cloud
cover. Solar influence is growing stronger, but clouds still hold
the trump card.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models were in general agreement today. However, as early as
Tuesday 00z, the ECMWF was showing a tendency toward deeper
pressure centers in the Bering and western Gulf of Alaska.

The team relied on the ECMWF for Southcentral region forecasts,
while the Southwest and Aleutian forecaster worked from the NAM
in the short-term, then blended toward the ECMWF in the mid
range.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail
through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
Nice weather will remain for Southcentral Alaska well into Sunday
before a shortwave from the south will bring cloud cover across
Southcentral Alaska and light rain to the north Gulf coast and
Kodiak Island Sunday night. The rain will increase on Monday for
the north Gulf coast and Kodiak Island as a front moves in from
the south which will also further increase sky cover for the more
interior locations of the southern mainland. On Tuesday, rain
will diminish along the north Gulf coast but continue for Kodiak
Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure over the mainland will keep Southwest AK dry through
most of the day on Monday as offshore flow maintains mostly clear
skies. There is some potential for patchy fog development the
next few nights as high pressure settles in within a weak warm air
advection regime, however the continued offshore flow and dry
ambient conditions will serve the keep any fog localized in
nature to portions of Greater Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Delta. The chance for precipitation will return to coastal areas
by late Monday as a weakening Bering front approaches the
mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Benign cloudy conditions will persist over much of the region
into Sunday as a front deteriorates over the Central Aleutians
and a col region remains over the eastern half of the Bering. The
next front will eventually bring another round of precipitation
and stronger winds to the region through Monday as it enters the
Western Aleutians late tonight and then tracks eastward to the
Akpen by Monday evening. Storm force winds will develop over the
Western Aleutians and surrounding waters by Sunday night as the
parent low moves into the Bering, aided by cold advection on the
back side of the system.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The weather pattern next week will undergo a gradual transition
as the weakening ridge over Mainland Alaska is pushed north and
large scale upper level lows along the Aleutians and over the Gulf
of Alaska become the dominate weather features to influence
southern Alaska. Early in the week, an upper low over the Bering
and one well south of the Gulf will merge Tuesday into a broad
multi-center low over the Gulf as the two features track east and
north respectively. Troughs and associated surface lows will
rotate through the Gulf around the periphery of the broad low
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The next low coming in from the west will track along and south
of the Aleutians Tuesday night and Wednesday to get pulled into
the large scale Gulf/North Pacific upper low low circulation
around around Thursday. By Friday another equally large upper
level low will become established centered off of the Kamchatka
Peninsula but extending over the western Bering, western Aleutians
and extending well south into the Pacific. The presence of these
two large upper level lows will help to amplify the upper level
ridge building in between them over the central and eastern
Aleutians and Bering on Friday.

By Saturday the upper ridge shifts east to the Alaska Peninsula
and Southwest Alaska and then continues to build over Mainland
Alaska Sunday and Monday with developing north Pacific frontal
systems starting to push back into the Aleutians around this time.
The net effect of all of this looks like continued relatively
quiet weather with a gradual warming trend through the week
(though dependent on cloud cover for how much of a warming trend)
and the potential for more rapid warming next weekend if the upper
level ridge does indeed push east over Mainland Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 127 173 175 176 177 185. Storm 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JR