Gale Warning 284, NWS Anchorage, AK

873 
FZAK61 PAFC 091154
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-100200-
354 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 988 mb North Pacific low moves to 54N 150W at 965 mb by 
Tue morning and then to 51N 149W at 980 mb by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ351-100200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
354 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ352-100200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
354 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

949 
FZAK61 PAFC 092342
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-101300-
342 PM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 977 mb North Pacific low moves to 55N 151W at 966 mb Tue morning 
then moves into the North Pacific at 990 mb Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-101300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
342 PM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-101300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
342 PM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

248 
FZAK61 PAFC 101146
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-110145-
346 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 969 mb low at 55N 151W moves to 55N 152W at 983 mb by Wed
morning. A 982 mb low at 57N 144W Wed morning moves to 
57N 160W at 988 mb by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ351-110145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
346 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-110145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
346 AM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

162 
FZAK61 PAFC 102346
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-111400-
346 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 973 mb low at 55N 155W moves south into the North Pacific at 979 
mb Wed afternoon. A 979 mb low near 55N 137W arches along the 
Northern Gulf front to 56N 157W Thu morning then shifts to 54N 149W 
at 987 mb Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-111400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
346 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-111400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
346 PM AKDT Tue Apr 10 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

232 
FZAK61 PAFC 111151
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 AM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-120145-
351 AM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 982 mb low at 57N 144W moves to 56N 156W at 988 mb by 
Thu morning and then to 55N 146W at 990 mb by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ351-120145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
351 AM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE to SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ352-120145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
351 AM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

553 
FZAK61 PAFC 112335
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-121245-
335 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 987 mb low at 57N 152W will move near 56N 155W at 988 mb Thu
afternoon then it will move to 54N 153W at 994 mb Fri afternoon. A
Pacific low will move into the southeastern Gulf Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ351-121245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
335 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ352-121245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
335 PM AKDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water Vapor satellite imagery shows a ridge centering over the
interior early this morning with a broad closed low south of the
Alaska Peninsula. Further west another parent low, spinning just
south of the Kamchatka Peninsula, is pushing a storm force front
into the western Aleutian Chain. This storm is currently bringing
gale force southeasterly winds across the western Bering along
with rain. The low south of the Alaska Peninsula is a weaker
system, however it should be monitored as it is expected to
organize on a northward track late Monday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern through
Monday. However, they begin to diverge on solutions for a
northward moving front expected to move into the Gulf Monday and
Tuesday. The NAM and GFS solutions had the slowest progression of
the front and were in best agreement. The ECMWF and Canadian
models were most aggressive with the low and differed greatly on
the track of the system. The NAM was used to make updates for the
morning package as the slower solution is most probable as the
ridge over the interior will likely hold its position through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail
through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A broad upper level trough over the Gulf will lift northward
across the Gulf today and then across Southcentral tonight into
Monday. Still expect quite a bit of sunshine today across most of
Southcentral, with just some cirrus clouds high up. Clouds will
lower tonight, with precipitation developing along the north Gulf
coast and Prince William Sound. With weak vertical motion and a
dry air mass in place inland, don't expect any precip to survive
the trip over the coastal mountains.

A deep low over the northeast Pacific will then head northward
tonight, with a second low forming out ahead of the original,
preceded by a warm front. With ridging building out ahead of
this storm system and storm motion stalling as the low becomes
vertically stacked, it's looking like the bulk of rain and wind
will be confined to the Gulf and Kodiak Island. Western Prince
William Sound and the north Gulf coast may see periods of rain
and snow as well, depending on how far north the frontal system
makes it. A lot of the moisture with this storm system will head
toward Kodiak Island, so expect a long duration of rain Monday
through Tuesday night. Expect at least an inch or two of rainfall,
though if the front stalls over Kodiak it could be more like
three inches. For the bulk of Southcentral, dry conditions will
persist with a mix of sun and clouds and warmer than normal
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure over the mainland will keep Southwest AK dry through
Monday afternoon, as offshore flow maintains mostly clear skies.
There is some potential for patchy fog development over the next
few nights as high pressure settles in within a weak warm air
advection regime. However, the continued offshore flow and dry
ambient conditions will serve to keep any fog localized in nature
to portions of Greater Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. The
chance for precipitation will return to coastal areas by Monday
evening, as a weakening Bering front approaches the mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Wet and windy weather conditions are expected to pick up this
morning over the western Aleutians/Bering as the next front
tracks in from the west. This system will spread precipitation and
stronger winds from west to east across the Bering and Aleutians
through Monday evening as it tracks eastward into the southwest
coast. Storm force winds will develop over the Western Aleutians
and surrounding waters by this evening as the parent low moves
into the Bering, aided by cold advection on the back side of the
system. The strongest gusts will remain in this corridor on the
southern periphery of the low, stretched across the western and
central Aleutians through Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Previous discussion)
The weather pattern this week will undergo a gradual transition
as the weakening ridge over Mainland Alaska is pushed north and
large scale upper level lows along the Aleutians and over the Gulf
of Alaska become the dominate weather features to influence
southern Alaska. Early in the week, an upper low over the Bering
and one well south of the Gulf will merge Tuesday into a broad
multi- center low over the Gulf as the two features track east and
north respectively. Troughs and associated surface lows will
rotate through the Gulf around the periphery of the broad low
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The next low coming in from the west will track along and south
of the Aleutians Tuesday night and Wednesday to get pulled into
the large scale Gulf/North Pacific upper low low circulation
around around Thursday. By Friday another equally large upper
level low will become established centered off of the Kamchatka
Peninsula but extending over the western Bering, western Aleutians
and extending well south into the Pacific. The presence of these
two large upper level lows will help to amplify the upper level
ridge building in between them over the central and eastern
Aleutians and Bering on Friday.

By Saturday the upper ridge shifts east to the Alaska Peninsula
and Southwest Alaska and then continues to build over Mainland
Alaska Sunday and Monday with developing north Pacific frontal
systems starting to push back into the Aleutians around this time.
The net effect of all of this looks like continued relatively
quiet weather with a gradual warming trend through the week
(though dependent on cloud cover for how much of a warming trend)
and the potential for more rapid warming next weekend if the upper
level ridge does indeed push east over Mainland Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 178.
         Gale 173 174 175 176 177 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JR