Gale Warning 175, NWS Anchorage, AK

133 
FZAK52 PAFC 170011
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171300-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front over the western Bering moves to the central Bering tonight 
then moves to a position from St Lawrence Island southeastward to a 
1015 mb low 120 NM west of Sitkinak Sunday. A 1000 mb low moves north
to 150 NM southeast of Atka tonight. This low moves north northwest 
crossing the Gulf of Anadyr late Sat night. A Strong front approaches
the western Aleutians Sat night and central Aleutians and southwest 
Bering Sunday.

$$

PKZ150-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft 
after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
From the Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt 
after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft except 13 ft from the 
Shumagin Islands E. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171300-
Bristol Bay-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after 
midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 30 kt becoming 
SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E, SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after 
midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 55 kt through bays and passes. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Gusts to 55 kt through bays and passes 
early. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171300-
Unalaska Bay-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to SE 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft building to 22 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171300-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171300-
Adak to Kiska-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft Bering side...25 ft Pacific side. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171300-
Kiska to Attu-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt increasing to 
40 kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt. 
Seas 20 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 35 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 PM AKST Thu Feb 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main feature is a low over the central Bering Sea with a
front extending southeast just off the Bering coast through the
Alaska Peninsula to a forming triple point southwest of the Gulf
of Alaska. There is an upper level trough across the eastern
Mainland into the Gulf of Alaska supporting a weak low over the
North Gulf Coast. This trough is rapidly exiting to the east, and
with it the snow over the Copper River Basin will end as the
trough clears the area. We have another low about 500 nm south of
the western Aleutians with the front in an arc just south of the
Aleutians. A 130 KT jet is running around the base of this low
then tapers off as it crosses into the flat ride. A 120 KT jet is
running along the front coming up from the North Pacific toward
the Gulf of Alaska. The triple point low development is evident in
the satellite imagery where the jet crosses the Bering low front
south of the Alaska Peninsula. It is also evident in association
with the low southwest of the western Aleutians where the triple
point low is forming south of Amchitka.

A more subtle feature is the weak ridging in the wake of the
trough exiting the eastern mainland. This will likely result is
localized fog issues this evening and tonight over Southcentral
Alaska into the Copper River Basin.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models have come into very good agreement in the short term
through Saturday. High pressure builds over the central and
eastern portions of the mainland and a more progressive and stormy
pattern is on tap for the Bering Sea and Aleutians. The models all
agree the triple point low will move toward Kodiak, but not push
inland, rather take an east southeast track across the Gulf of
Alaska toward Dixon Entrance. High pressure then persists over the
mainland, which would continue to deflect storms to the south
keeping the southern Mainland in a high and dry pattern into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The main concern is the stratus and fog this evening.
Without strong signs of mixing it is rather uncertain whether the
stratus and fog will mix out at all this evening. Fog and stratus
is evident in the visible satellite imagery over the Susitna
Valley into Cook Inlet down to Augustine. It does appear the lower
atmosphere will dry sufficiently overnight tonight through early
Friday as low level outflow down the Susitna Valley and Cook
Inlet increases. Think this will be just enough to scour out
the fog and stratus.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Dry conditions are expected across Southcentral as a ridge over
the central interior slowly breaks down through Friday morning.
This ridge is quickly replaced by another building ridge which
moves in from the west Friday night. Patchy fog is expected to
develop each night through the upcoming weekend across the typical
low lying areas as temperature inversions set up during the
night. Gusty offshore flow this evening across coastal gaps
tapers down overnight as the first ridge tracks from the central
interior to the Alcan border. The next building ridge, late
Friday, is expected to bring higher gusts as forcing from an
upper level wave moves from west to east.

Along the Kenai...A brief period of light snow is possible Friday
as a front moves across the west Gulf bringing wrap around
moisture along a surface low which develops early morning, then
moves off to the east during the afternoon. Another front moves
up from the southern Gulf on Sunday which brings increased chances
for snow and rain across all of the Kenai as it advances north
through the afternoon. Locations along and north of a line from
Kenai to Seward should stay all snow as mid level temperatures
cool.

Along the Gulf and Kodiak Island...a front moves in from the
Alaska Peninsula this evening spreading light rain and snow
through Friday morning. A triple point low develops just south of
Kodiak early Friday morning and tracks to the eastern Gulf waters
that afternoon. A brief dry period is expected Friday night
through Saturday as a surface ridge amplifies across the mainland
and Gulf. The next front is a weak system that races north from
the Pacific. This system, driven by a parent low over the Bering,
sends a warm front across Kodiak during the early morning hours on
Sunday. Precipitation may start as snow, then transition to all
rain as it lifts north to the Kenai and central Gulf around mid
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Sunday)
The active weather pattern looks to continue through the weekend.
Currently, another weak cold front is approaching the coast, with
area radars beginning to show the leading edge of precipitation.
Look for this front to continue pushing inland through the next 24
hours, with mainly snow being the dominant form north and east of
King Salmon, with more of a mix or rain showers heading down the
AKpen. Some gusty winds will develop for a few locations on the
coast, but coverage looked too limited to add blowing snow to the
forecast zones.

Otherwise, another short-wave ridge will build over the region for
the Friday night through Saturday time frame. Yet another front
will affect the area on Sunday, with winds and precipitation
potential rising once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Sunday)
A series of low pressure systems will continue to affect the
region through the weekend. As one low exits the western Bering as
it moves north tonight, it's associated surface front will stall
near Atka, as another wave of low pressure ridges north along it
from the northern Pacific. This will reinforce rainfall chances
along much of the Aleutian chain. as the Pacific low continues
its northward trek through the Bering, the associated surface
front will sweep eastward through the remainder of the chain/AKpen.
Quickly following on its heals, storm number three will intensify
as a 975mb low develops west of Shemya on Sunday, with another
front arcing east and southward through the west central
Aleutians. Each front will bring an increase in precipitation
coverage and intensity, as well as increasing winds, most of which
will be gale to occasional storm force.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The remnants of the front will push through Southcentral Alaska
Sunday night resulting in increased chances for snow. A low will
be over the north Gulf Coast, but as has been the theme of this
current pattern, this low will be deflected to the southeast by
the high pressure over the eastern mainland and Yukon Territory.
Out over the Bering Sea as one low is exiting to the northwest,
another is sliding north across the western Aleutians Sunday
night. The associated front pushes into the northern Bering Sea
arcing south across the eastern Aleutians. The warm front will
push northeast across southwest Alaska by Monday with the
potential for rain or a rain snow mix over southwest Alaska for
the early part of next week. The warm air is progged to push well
inland over the upper level ridge to the Brooks Range through
Tuesday and Wednesday, thus a continuation of this wetter and
warmer trend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 175 177.
 Gale Warning 127 132 150 172 173 174 176 178 179 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...SA