Gale Warning 174, NWS Anchorage, AK

218 
FZAK51 PAFC 161218
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-170130-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1017 mb low 40 nm south of Sitkinak moves across the Gulf and 
exits to the southeast tonight at 1002 mb. A front in the 
southwestern Gulf remains nearly stationary through Sat night.

$$

PKZ119-170130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-170130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-170130-
Resurrection Bay-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-170130-
Prince William Sound-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-170130-
Port Valdez-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-170130-
Valdez Narrows-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-170130-
Valdez Arm-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-170130-
Passage Canal-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 3 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 3 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-170130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-170130-
Barren Islands East-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-170130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NE wind 20 kt becoming
N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. N
of Dangerous Cape, NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-170130-
Chiniak Bay-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Rain
and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-170130-
Marmot Bay-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain 
and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-170130-
Shelikof Strait-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-170130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Patchy 
freezing fog.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-170130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Patchy freezing fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Patchy freezing fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-170130-
Kachemak Bay-
318 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

639 
FZAK51 PAFC 170025
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-171315-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
High pressure builds across the Gulf into Saturday night then 
begins to break down and slide east Sunday. A weakening front 
slowly moves into the western gulf Sunday as a 1020 mb low 
moves to 110 NM southeast of Sitkinak during the afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-171315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-171315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-171315-
Resurrection Bay-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-171315-
Prince William Sound-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-171315-
Port Valdez-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-171315-
Valdez Narrows-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-171315-
Valdez Arm-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-171315-
Passage Canal-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 3 ft.  Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier in the morning. Seas 3 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming 
variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-171315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-171315-
Barren Islands East-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-171315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. 
N of Dangerous Cape, NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, variable wind 10
kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-171315-
Chiniak Bay-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming 
S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-171315-
Marmot Bay-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt 
after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-171315-
Shelikof Strait-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-171315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.SAT...N wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft subsiding
to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray and patchy freezing fog.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 
3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-171315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Patchy freezing fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Patchy freezing fog in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Patchy freezing fog.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-171315-
Kachemak Bay-
325 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt outer bay...NE 10 kt inner bay. Seas 2 ft. 
Freezing spray outer bay.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 AM AKST Thu Feb 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level trough over eastern mainland Alaska continues to
push off to the east towards the ALCAN border this morning. Snow
has tapered off over Southcentral while light snow continues over
the Copper River Basin. An upper level ridge is building in
behind the departing trough leading to clearing skies with
widespread areas of fog developing over southwest Alaska and more
recently over the Cook Inlet and the Kenai Peninsula. Further
west, an upper level trough is digging NE across the Western
Aleutians with an associated surface low and frontal system
sweeping across the Central Bering towards the southwest mainland,
bringing gale force winds and rain to the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have come into decent agreement with the evolution and
progression of the longwave pattern over the next couple of days,
with high pressure building in over the central and eastern
portions of the mainland and a more progressive and stormy
pattern out west. Recent model runs have steered away from a more
northward storm track as systems move from the Bering into the
Gulf, which would deflect storms to the south keeping
southcentral in a high and dry pattern heading into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Snow has tapered off overnight as the longwave trough
pushes east, though a rapidly building ridge behind it will trap
low level moisture leading to IFR/LIFR Cigs and the likely
development of fog by 15Z. With fog already developing over Kenai,
conditions are obviously ripe for widespread development over the
Cook Inlet area and into the Anchorage bowl. The densest fog may
take some time to develop this morning as left over low stratus
will slow cooling at the surface, but the building ridge combined
with recent precipitation will eventually take over and should
lead to widespread fog development this morning before lifting in
the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper trough and associated surface front will clear the Copper
River Basin this afternoon. Snow and snow showers will likely
continue with these features as it pushes east. Low stratus and
fog will likely hang around upper Cook Inlet, Anchorage Bowl, and
MAT-SU Valleys this morning with improvement this afternoon. Areas
of stratus and fog could redevelop again tonight across the
Anchorage Bowl and perhaps as far as Palmer in the Mat Valley as
light winds and upper ridging strengthen surface inversions.
Brisk/strong outflow winds will develop over the eastern Kenai
Peninsula/Western Prince William Sound and the North Gulf Coast
this morning and should peak this afternoon before weakening
overnight.

A surface front spreads rain to the western Gulf tonight. The
north progression of the front should stall Friday as a strong
triple point low develops and pulls the front southeast. So
precipitation, mostly snow, will likely only make it as far north
as the Kenai Peninsula before the surface low carries it
southeast. Pressure gradients will once again build along the
Gulf coast and give rise to another round of outflow winds Friday
night.

 &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Some areas of lingering cloudy conditions and fog will persist
through this morning, as the residual moisture from the previous
system remains over some areas which cleared out overnight prior
to fog developing. Our focus quickly shifts to an approaching
front pushing into the southwest Mainland starting this afternoon.
This system will weaken as it progresses eastward through Friday,
bringing widespread precipitation to much of the area and mainly
in the form of snow. However, frontal speed will temporally limit
any snowfall accumulation potential, with just light amounts
expected. By Friday evening a weak area of high pressure will
build in over the mainland, and bring another round of clearing
skies and drier conditions through Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A 979mb low will continue to track northward through the central
Bering through tonight bringing widespread gusty winds and
precipitation to much of the Bering and Aleutians through this
evening. The associated front currently stretching from the
Pribilof Islands through the eastern Aleutians will continue to
spread gusty winds and precipitation over the eastern Bering/
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula into Friday morning. Right on its
heels is another gale force system working its way into the
western Aleutians by this afternoon, and spreading strong gusty
winds and precipitation eastward into the central Bering/Aleutians
overnight tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
As a decaying front across the Anchorage area slides East on
Friday afternoon, only a slight decrease to temperatures and
increase of clouds are to be expected. Temperatures aloft will
cool through that time but begin to rebound into the weekend and
beyond. Skies are expected to clear out by the early weekend. Now
that we are back into the season of the sun helping to aid in
warmth, daytime temperatures will quickly rise. Diurnal swings of
20 degrees, or more, are not out of the question. Interior and
river valley areas of the Copper River Basin should see night
temperatures drop well below zero as any warmth radiates out
overnight. Clouds will increase Sunday afternoon with an
approaching front from the West. However, guidance has a harder
time figuring out how far the front will move to the east. If it
has enough oomph to overtake the ridging over the area, we may see
snow Monday afternoon into the evening hours. The GFS is showing
the strongest of these signals. The EC is indicating a much weaker
front with light snow, and the Canadian is showing nothing.
Regardless, the nature of ridging and troughing will continue
progressively through this weekend and into next.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 181.
         Storm Warning 175-177 413.
 Gale Warning 165 170 173 174 178-181 185 352 411 412 414.&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...SS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1016 AM AKST THU FEB 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 AM     SNOW             5 ESE WASILLA           61.56N 149.32W
02/15/2018  M2.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1012 AM     SNOW             SUTTON                  61.72N 148.88W
02/15/2018  M2.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW BEGAN AT 345 PM. DURATION WAS 6+ HRS.

&&

LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
152 PM AKST THU FEB 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     SNOW             POTTER VALLEY           61.05N 149.79W
02/15/2018  M2.3 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

&&

KH