Gale Warning 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

397 
FZAK62 PAFC 161235
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170245-
335 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 mb North Pacific low moves to 53N 170E at 981 mb for Wed
morning and continues to 55N 173E at 991 mb by Thu morning. The
associated front sweeps into the Eastern Aleutians by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-170245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N in
the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N after midnight.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow. Freezing spray N 
of 56N in the morning.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray N of 
56N.
.WED NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

681 
FZAK62 PAFC 170045
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171345-
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 990 mb low moves to 48N 162E
this evening with an associated cold front entering the western 
Aleutians. This low then moves to 54N 171E at 985 mb Wed afternoon 
then moves to 56N 173E Thu afternoon while weakening to 1004 mb. The 
attendant cold front will dissipate across the central Bering and 
Aleutians Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 ft building to 7 to 15 ft after midnight.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

264 
FZAK62 PAFC 171212
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
312 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180245-
312 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 mb low at 53N 170E extends a front through the Western
Aleutians. The low moves to 53N 175W at 1010 mb by Fri morning. The 
associated front pushes into the Eastern Aleutians by Fri morning. A 
1004 mb North Pacific low tracks south of the Aleutians to 49N 159W 
at 992 mb for Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-180245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
312 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
312 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
312 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
312 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N in the morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

049 
FZAK62 PAFC 180016
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
316 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181430-
316 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 mb low at 54N 171E moves to 54N 176E at 1000 mb Thu
afternoon. A North Pacific low passes well south of the Aleutians
Thu afternoon through Fri afternoon resulting in a shift to offshore
flow. A front approaches the western Aleutians Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-181430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
316 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
316 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
316 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
316 PM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

460 
FZAK62 PAFC 181149
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
249 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-190230-
249 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 991 mb low at 54N 173E moves to 51N 171W at 1017 mb dissipating
Sat morning. The associated front slides into the Eastern 
Aleutians dissipating Sat morning. A 991 mb low near 45N 177W 
moves to 50N 145W at 988 mb Sat morning. A 978 mb North Pacific 
low and front moves to 48N 169E Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
249 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
249 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
249 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
249 AM AKST Thu Jan 18 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray N of 
56N.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Active weather continues across the Gulf and southern mainland,
while more benign and showery conditions persist across the Bering
Sea and Aleutians. The disturbance moving northward along the
stationary boundary in the Gulf is moving toward the north Gulf
Coast, and as expected, this has pulled the precipitation shield
in the area westward. As of this writing, the precipitation is
likely within a few hours of reaching its westward-most extent
and at this point, it looks increasingly likely that most of the
Anchorage area will see a little more than a few flurries to
perhaps a dusting of snowfall. Meanwhile, heavier snow has
continued overnight in the Copper River Basin with multiple
reports of power outages in the area.

Out west, the previous low that affected the southern mainland
continues to fill and move northward along the coast, and is
currently located near St. Lawrence Island. Fairly weak onshore
flow continues to spread warm temperatures and showery conditions
to the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay zones, but these conditions
should gradually diminish throughout the day. Meanwhile, cold air
gradually moving offshore of Siberia continues to support abundant
snow shower activity over the western 2/3 of the Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement today with the main features
affecting the forecast, and forecast confidence is above-average.
There is still a bit of uncertainty regarding snowfall potential
this morning in the Anchorage and Matanuska Valley areas, though
all models have trended toward a drier/less snowy solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist
throughout the day. Clouds and a bit of mixed precipitation move
into the area Tuesday morning, and have the potential to briefly
lower ceilings to near MVFR conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The atmospheric river that has been over the eastern Prince
William Sound region edged westward overnight and appears to be
reaching the westward extent of its movement. This has kept heavy
snowfall through the night in the Copper River Basin and rain
along the coast over most of Prince William Sound. Anchorage
remains on the western edge of the snowfall with snow likely over
the Chugach mountains but little to none expected in the Anchorage
bowl. Likewise, in the Matanuska Valley, Palmer will likely see
some light snowfall but less in Wasilla.

Tuesday will see the next low track rapidly into the Gulf of
Alaska from the southeast and track to Kodiak Island by early
Wednesday. The front ahead of this low will move through
Southcentral Alaska Tuesday ushering in some very warm
temperatures aloft. this will bring in a quick shot of freezing
rain to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley late Monday night
before the downslope winds kick in and temperatures warm above
freezing Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The low that has been bringing precipitation to Southwest Alaska
continues its track north along the west coast. As it does, the
majority of precipitation will clear out of the area until a
front approaches the Bristol Bay area from the Gulf Tuesday. The
front will break apart as it pushes through the rest of southwest
Alaska but still spread showers over the area. Showers will then
diminish through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
West to northwest flow will continue to dominate the Bering and
Aleutians bringing showers to the area until a new system
approaches the Western Aleutians from the North Pacific Tuesday.
The associated front will make it over the Western Aleutians
Tuesday afternoon and then to the Central Aleutians Wednesday
morning. The front will then stall and diminish Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast beginning Wednesday, features a broad
upper level trough extending across the western two thirds of the
state. A highly amplified long wave ridge centered over the
western US will extend up through central Canada and into the
Yukon. As the upper level trough digs east encompassing the whole
state, the upper level ridge will be pinched off over Canada and
The jet stream will return to more of an west/east zonal pattern,
with the main jet core setting up well to the south of the state
nearing 35N. What this means for the sensible weather this week is
a transition from warm and moist southerly flow, to more of a
colder and drier pattern over the mainland as the storm track is
directed well to our south.

At the surface, a low over the Northern Gulf will move north into
Bristol Bay and weaken during the day on Wednesday, though not
before bringing accumulating snow to the SW mainland. As this
system fizzles out the pattern becomes much quieter over the
mainland as cold air is allowed to filter south from the Arctic.
This will bring temperatures back to normal for this time of year,
likely dropping below normal by the end of the week especially
out west. By Thursday, the models fall out of agreement and
solutions become unclear regarding specific features that may
track into the area. Though at this point, models are all
generally showing the storm track still staying to our south.
Models come back into agreement by the weekend as the next low
tracks across the North Pacific and into the Western Bering,
which could potentially be the next weather system to impact the
mainland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales: 119 120 132 138 351.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1234 PM AKST MON JAN 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     SNOW             SUTTON                  61.72N 148.88W
01/15/2018  M5.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RCLAY