Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2018
Gale Warning 137, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Feb 2, 2018, 2:52 PM AKST. It was in force for 24 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 2, 2018, 2:52 PM AKST (23:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 3, 2018, 2:58 PM AKST
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
669 FZAK51 PAFC 022352 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-031315- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A front in the southwestern Gulf moves to the northeastern Gulf Sat afternoon. A 1000 mb low 100 nm southeast of Sitkinak Sat afternoon moves over the Alaska Peninsula Sun afternoon and dissipates. $$ PKZ119-031315- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Near the coast, E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ120-031315- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ121-031315- Resurrection Bay- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ125-031315- Prince William Sound- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ126-031315- Port Valdez- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-031315- Valdez Narrows- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ128-031315- Valdez Arm- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ129-031315- Passage Canal- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 .TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-031315- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ131-031315- Barren Islands East- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. .SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ132-031315- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow. .SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ136-031315- Chiniak Bay- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Wind becoming E wind 25 kt during the evening. Seas 9 ft. .SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ137-031315- Marmot Bay- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Wind becoming E wind 25 kt during the evening. Seas 10 ft. .SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ138-031315- Shelikof Strait- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. .SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow. .SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ139-031315- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. .MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. $$ PKZ140-031315- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 .TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. .SAT...NE wind 20 kt. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. .SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. $$ PKZ141-031315- Kachemak Bay- 252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$
3 follow-up statements
965 FZAK51 PAFC 031234 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-040130- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A front in the central Gulf will dissipate Sun morning. A 1000 mb low will move to the southcentral Gulf Sat night then it will move into the eastern Gulf Sun afternoon. A front will move into the southwestern Gulf Mon morning. $$ PKZ119-040130- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray N of Middleton Island in the morning. .TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ120-040130- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray along the coast in the morning. .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ121-040130- Resurrection Bay- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. .TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ125-040130- Prince William Sound- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ126-040130- Port Valdez- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-040130- Valdez Narrows- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ128-040130- Valdez Arm- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ129-040130- Passage Canal- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-040130- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ131-040130- Barren Islands East- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ132-040130- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow and rain. .TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow and rain. .SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ136-040130- Chiniak Bay- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow. .TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Snow. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ137-040130- Marmot Bay- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow. .TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Snow. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ138-040130- Shelikof Strait- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. .TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow. .SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ139-040130- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. .MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. .TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. .WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. $$ PKZ140-040130- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. $$ PKZ141-040130- Kachemak Bay- 334 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$
383 FZAK51 PAFC 031719 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-040615- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... $$ PKZ119-040615- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ120-040615- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ121-040615- Resurrection Bay- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ125-040615- Prince William Sound- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ126-040615- Port Valdez- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-040615- Valdez Narrows- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ128-040615- Valdez Arm- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ129-040615- Passage Canal- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-040615- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ131-040615- Barren Islands East- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ132-040615- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow. .TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow and rain. .SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ136-040615- Chiniak Bay- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow with rain. .TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Snow. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ137-040615- Marmot Bay- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow. .TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Snow. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ138-040615- Shelikof Strait- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow. .SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ139-040615- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. .MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. .TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. .WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. $$ PKZ140-040615- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. $$ PKZ141-040615- Kachemak Bay- 819 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$
198 FZAK51 PAFC 032358 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-041230- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A 1001 mb low 235 nm South of Kodiak City dissipates in the Southwestern Gulf by Sun morning. A 1001 mb North Pacific low moves to 180 nm west of Klawock at 1003 mb for Midday Sunday then dissipates Sun Night. A front will enter the southern Gulf Mon morning and tracks to the northern Gulf late Mon. $$ PKZ119-041230- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas 11 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas 10 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ120-041230- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ121-041230- Resurrection Bay- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ125-041230- Prince William Sound- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt out of bays and passes in the morning. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-041230- Port Valdez- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-041230- Valdez Narrows- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ128-041230- Valdez Arm- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ129-041230- Passage Canal- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Gusts to 20 kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-041230- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ131-041230- Barren Islands East- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ132-041230- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ136-041230- Chiniak Bay- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ137-041230- Marmot Bay- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ138-041230- Shelikof Strait- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. .SUN...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ139-041230- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray. .MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. .TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. $$ PKZ140-041230- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. .MON...N wind 10 kt. .MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. .TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. $$ PKZ141-041230- Kachemak Bay- 258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018 .TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 2, 5:19 AM AKST, 9 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 2, 5:19 AM AKST, 9 hours 33 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 AM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A weak col in the upper levels has developed with ridging over
northwest Alaska, ridging over the far southern Gulf, and weak
remnant troughing along the Gulf Coast and the southern Bering.
The two aforementioned ridges are dominating the general flow
elsewhere, but they oppose one another as far as upper level winds
are concerned. Thus, northerly flow over Alaska is running into
southerly flow over the Pacific and shearing apart to the east and
west. In other words, very little is happening in the upper levels
to change the ongoing weather pattern over Southern Alaska. Low
level moisture on easterly flow is largely confined to the
southern Gulf and the Kodiak area, which then continues westward
into the southern Alaska Peninsula. Being ill-supported, any
associated precipitation is light.
So for nearly all of southern mainland Alaska, the primary weather
story remains the winds, as high pressure over mainland Alaska
pushes the cold air over the state southward and out into the Gulf
towards the low pressure there. In the locations that are
windiest, generally temperatures remain warmer. In the calm
locations, temperatures are in free-fall once again due to optimal
radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and a deep, well-
established snow pack.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in excellent agreement overall over the next
couple days across most of Southern Alaska. This agreement lends
to higher overall forecast confidence. The winds through the gaps
remain the primary forecast challenge through the weekend,
followed by watching a series of low pressure systems move
northward and gradually erode the protective dome of high pressure
such that more active weather can make it into southern Mainland
Alaska by the start of the upcoming workweek. As regards those
lows, the models don't yet have a good handle on those, and it's
there that there is much more disagreement and uncertainty in the
forecast. This still is very common, given the lows are weak and
over the very data-sparse North Pacific.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Little overall change has occurred in the weather pattern as high
pressure continues to bring clear skies and gap winds to Mainland
with a nearly stationary weak front and rain/snow towards Kodiak
Island. A shortwave that moved over the Mainland overnight and
caused an increase in many of the gap winds has mostly moved south
of the North Gulf Coast, which should allow these winds to slowly
weaken over the course of this morning, then fall below strong
wind criteria (45 mph) throughout the area by this evening. This
should allow for temperatures tonight in areas like west Anchorage
and the Matanuska Valley that have stayed much warmer over the
past few nights to be much colder tonight, potentially cold enough
to bring the first official below zero temperature at the
Anchorage Airport of the season tonight. Gap winds will then
reform again Friday evening in advance of a weak front that will
clip the southern gulf, but with a much weaker pressure gradient
and no upper level support these should remain much weaker than
the winds that blew earlier this week. This front will bring
rain/snow back into Kodiak into this weekend, with continued
outflow winds generally under gale force along the North Gulf.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Monday)
A slow moderating trend is in store for the region, as high
pressure which has dominated our weather for the past week
continues to slowly loose its grip. This is large due to the flat
ridge re-centering over the Yukon and British Columbia, while a
series of lows and their associated surface fronts push northward
into the region. The first warm front attached to a west central
Aleutians low will stall just south of the peninsula, but it'll be
close enough for over-running precipitation to affect parts of
the region, mainly south of Bristol Bay and the AKpen for Friday
evening, lifting northward some through the weekend, with
precipitation potential spreading north as well. Another benefit
of the approaching front is winds will gradually veer from a
northeasterly to southeasterly direction, especially as one heads
down the AKpen. This will allow for some down-slope warming to help
moderate the airmass. However, it'll also allow precipitation to be
more spotty west of the Alaska Range.
Heading into the start of the work week, another low will develop
and move from the North Pacific to the AKpen for Monday, dragging
a warm front into the area as well. Increased lift aloft and
surface convergence will allow for precipitation to become more
widespread, with a continued slight moderating trend in
temperatures, especially for southern parts of the mainland.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Monday)
Increasing precipitation potential and wind speeds is in our
future, especially for areas along and south of the Aleutians. A
pair of low pressure systems will send an occluded front northward
today, while the lows spin around each other in a Fujiwhara-like
fashion. Increased surface convergence and ascent aloft will
allow a fairly widespread showery pattern to develop. Initially,
snow showers will be the predominant precipitation type. However,
warm advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere will allow
any frozen precipitation to switch over the the liquid variety by
Saturday morning. Although the lows really never get north of
Shemya, disturbances aloft rotating around the low will allow the
showers to spread northward through much of the Bering Sea through
the weekend.
As for winds, an increasing pressure gradient ahead of the
incoming front will mean an uptick in the winds, as they
strengthen to gales from south to north through Saturday evening,
before subsiding in the Sunday through Monday time frame as the
front weakens.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the long term forecast period Saturday night, the
strong omega blocking high will still be in place over Eastern
Siberia and northwest Alaska. There will be a weakening upper
trough (deforming and stretching) over Southern Alaska with a
strong arctic surface high over the interior. A relatively stationary
front will stretch from the western Bering Sea to Kodiak Island
and then to the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. Energetic shortwave
troughs will slowly but surely push the front farther north toward
the Gulf Coast, slowly eroding the arctic high in place Sunday.
However, with the stout blocking high in place, it now seems
quite likely that fronts moving up toward the coast will stretch
and deform, keeping most if not all of Southern Alaska dry (with
the exception of the immediate coastline and Kodiak Island).
Eventually, troughing will re-establish itself over the western
Bering Sea, keeping the low track to the west of the mainland.
Temperatures should moderate back to near normal next week as the
arctic high slowly weakens.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 128 130 131 132 138 165 170 172-176 179
180 351 352 413 414.
Heavy Freezing Spray 121 126-129 139 150 155 160 180 185
414.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JAThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 3:36 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Feb 1, 3:44 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Feb 1, 3:44 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Feb 1, 3:44 PM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 23 hr | |
| Feb 1, 3:48 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Feb 1, 3:51 PM AKST | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFC | 5 days | |
| Feb 1, 3:51 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 4 days | |
| Feb 1, 3:51 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 5 days | |
| Feb 1, 3:51 PM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Feb 2, 3:55 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Feb 2, 3:55 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Feb 2, 3:55 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 3 hr | |
| Feb 2, 3:55 AM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 35 hr | |
| Feb 2, 7:13 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 44 hr | |
| Feb 2, 2:58 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Feb 2, 2:58 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Feb 2, 2:58 PM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 13 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.