Gale Warning 100, NWS Anchorage, AK

210 
FZAK61 PAFC 021255
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-030145-
355 AM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 mb low at 55N 137W will move inland this afternoon near 55N
133W. A 1002 mb low Sat night at 53N 143W will move to 53N 136W at
1006 mb by Sun morning.  

$$

PKZ351-030145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
355 AM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-030145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
355 AM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

246 
FZAK61 PAFC 022352
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-031515-
252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front in the southwestern Gulf moves to the northeastern Gulf Sat 
afternoon. A 1000 mb low at 55N 153W Sat afternoon moves over the 
Alaska Peninsula Sun afternoon and dissipates. A second 1003 mb low 
at 50N 146W Sat afternoon moves to 53N 134W at 1005 mb Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-031515-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind up to 10 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-031515-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

885 
FZAK61 PAFC 031235
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-040230-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front in the central Gulf will dissipate Sun morning. A 1000 mb
low will move to 56N 146W Sat night then it will move into the
eastern Gulf Sun afternoon. A front will move into the
southwestern Gulf Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ351-040230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-040230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

934 
FZAK61 PAFC 032358
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-041430-
258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1001 mb low at 55N 151W dissipates in the Southwestern Gulf 
by Sun morning. A 1001 mb North Pacific low moves to 55N 137W 
at 1003 mb for Midday Sunday then dissipates Sun Night. A front 
will enter the southern Gulf Mon morning and tracks to the 
northern Gulf late Mon.

$$

PKZ351-041430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-041430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt 
after midnight. Seas 14 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

528 
FZAK61 PAFC 041253
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKST Sun Feb 4 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-050245-
353 AM AKST Sun Feb 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front in the Gulf will dissipate this afternoon. A front will
move into the southwestern Gulf Mon morning. A 1000 mb low will
develop at 56N 150W Mon night then it will move to 58N 148W at 999
mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ351-050245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
353 AM AKST Sun Feb 4 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ352-050245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
353 AM AKST Sun Feb 4 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strong upper level high centered over eastern Russia extends
eastward over western Alaska. Meanwhile a weak upper level low
centered south of Chirikof Island is moving westward. This upper
level pattern is keeping broad northeasterly flow ongoing over
much of the area. The upper high is pumping upper level warm air
over the area, while general low pressure over the Gulf continues
a cold northerly offshore wind through the gaps. Thus, with cold
air underneath warm air above it, much of Southern Alaska remains
in a stable, dry weather pattern consisting of seasonable
temperatures with lots of sunshine and clear skies.

With the upper level low, broad easterly flow is keeping a
constant feed of moisture from off the Gulf heading into Kodiak.
However, the Gulf flow is also warming temperatures up, so current
precipitation is a rain/snow mix with above freezing temperatures.
The Matanuska Valley wind is also continuing through Palmer and
Wasilla as the northeast flow drains cold air out of the Copper
River Basin down the valley. Drainage winds near gale force are
also ongoing through the Valdez Narrows, Valdez Arm, and the
Copper River Delta.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model agreement remains very good as the pattern remains very
steady state due to the developing rex block in the upper level
pattern. So while the synoptic large-scale pattern is high
confidence, smaller scale features remain the forecast challenge
this morning. Among the challenges are the strength, duration, and
location of the Matanuska Valley wind, winds through many of the
other gaps, precipitation type and intensity through Kodiak, and
how low temperatures drop in any interior areas where the winds go
slack. As such, forecast confidence is broadly high, but lower in
some of the local-effect areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The strong outflow winds that have blown through many of the usual
spots in Southcentral (such as the Matanuska Valley, Thompson
Pass, and the North Gulf Coast) for most of this week will begin
to diminish starting this afternoon. This will occur as the
pressure gradient weakens behind the incoming North Pacific low
that will graze the Gulf as it tracks into the Panhandle. For
Thompson Pass and the Matanuska Valley, gusty winds will continue
into Friday, however, these should be noticeably weaker than the
past few days. Precipitation will continue to generally be limited
today to the Kodiak Island area where a shift to onshore flow has
brought temperatures above freezing with a rain/snow mix,
allowing for the expected accumulations to be significantly
lowered and the potential for blowing snow removed from the
forecast. The only other chance for precipitation over the next
few days will be further north in the Gulf towards Cordova this
morning, as a weak trough passing overhead from the Yukon may
bring a some periods of light snow to area. This will only be a
brief shot this morning though, shifting the focus for
precipitation back to Kodiak Island where it will remain for the
rest of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and through 3)...
(Today through Sunday)

Gusty offshore winds will continue through this evening, before
decreasing some as the pressure gradient decreases somewhat. This
is due to the flat ridge of high pressure to our north decreasing
some in magnitude. This should allow temperatures to cool at
night a few degrees tonight and tomorrow night, especially for
the interior valleys as mixing decreases. Otherwise, the main
item of interest will be an approaching area of low pressure for
the weekend, with models differing on how far north does it make
it and their associated warm fronts (Bristol Bay per GFS versus
AKpen via NAM). However, the overall theme is for moderating
temperatures and increasing potential for precipitation by the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Sunday)

The rather benign pattern looks to change by the weekend, as a
pair of lows affect the region. The general theme is for broad
high pressure to weaken as one low moves into western portions of
the chain/Bering, with another low making it to the peninsula or
eastern Bering. A warm front will be accompanying each of these
lows, with winds and precipitation potential increasing ahead of
them. Timing and placement issues remain large at this time.
However, the overall theme for a shift in pattern is consistent
amongst all of the numerical guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the long term forecast period Friday night, the strong
omega blocking high will still be in place over Eastern Siberia
and northwest Alaska. There will be a weakening upper trough
(deforming and stretching) over Southern Alaska with a strong
arctic surface high over the interior. A stationary front will
stretch from the central North Pacific to Kodiak Island and the
Eastern Gulf of Alaska. Energetic shortwave troughs will slowly
but surely push the front farther north toward the Gulf Coast,
slowly eroding the arctic high in place Sunday. There is quite a
bit of uncertainty, still, regarding how far north the front makes
it. Another day with the same model discrepancies as, once again,
the GFS and ECMWF models have "flipped", now the ECMWF mostly
remains dry for the Gulf Coast and inland (with precipitation
favoring Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula/Western Alaska
Range) while the GFS wants to move the front farther northward.
For now, the WPC approach was favored which does bring a low
chance for precipitation to the coast by the end of the weekend,
although keeping inland locales dry. There should be a gradual
uptick in temperatures next week as the arctic high weakens, but
the general dry pattern will remain in place with no snow likely
in the near future for inland locations as the blocking high
remains dominant.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 138 150 172.
		 Brisk Wind Advisory 181.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 126 127 139 160 180 185 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JA