Gale Warning 102, NWS Anchorage, AK

246 
FZAK61 PAFC 022352
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-031515-
252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front in the southwestern Gulf moves to the northeastern Gulf Sat 
afternoon. A 1000 mb low at 55N 153W Sat afternoon moves over the 
Alaska Peninsula Sun afternoon and dissipates. A second 1003 mb low 
at 50N 146W Sat afternoon moves to 53N 134W at 1005 mb Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-031515-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind up to 10 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-031515-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
252 PM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

885 
FZAK61 PAFC 031235
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-040230-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front in the central Gulf will dissipate Sun morning. A 1000 mb
low will move to 56N 146W Sat night then it will move into the
eastern Gulf Sun afternoon. A front will move into the
southwestern Gulf Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ351-040230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-040230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
335 AM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

934 
FZAK61 PAFC 032358
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-041430-
258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1001 mb low at 55N 151W dissipates in the Southwestern Gulf 
by Sun morning. A 1001 mb North Pacific low moves to 55N 137W 
at 1003 mb for Midday Sunday then dissipates Sun Night. A front 
will enter the southern Gulf Mon morning and tracks to the 
northern Gulf late Mon.

$$

PKZ351-041430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-041430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
258 PM AKST Sat Feb 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt 
after midnight. Seas 14 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

528 
FZAK61 PAFC 041253
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKST Sun Feb 4 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-050245-
353 AM AKST Sun Feb 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front in the Gulf will dissipate this afternoon. A front will
move into the southwestern Gulf Mon morning. A 1000 mb low will
develop at 56N 150W Mon night then it will move to 58N 148W at 999
mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ351-050245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
353 AM AKST Sun Feb 4 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ352-050245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
353 AM AKST Sun Feb 4 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 PM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A strong blocking ridge centered over eastern Siberia continues
to dominate weather across the Alaska region, with cold and dry
conditions across Mainland Alaska. Active weather is currently
confined to the North Pacific, though systems are slowly lifting
northward, with progression severely limited by the strong ridging
to the north. The coldest air is located over the eastern
interior down into Southcentral. Although there is very little
ongoing advection of this air mass, tight thermal and pressure
gradients continue to produce strong gusty winds through the
Matanuska Valley and Valdez/Thompson Pass area. Gap winds also
continue along much of the Gulf coast. Lastly, an elongating upper
level trough extends from south of the eastern Aleutians
northeastward into the central Gulf. It is tracking slowly
northwestward, with bands of showers right out ahead of it. This
is bringing a steady supply of showers to Kodiak Island, mostly in
the form of snow. Surface temperatures are above freezing at sea
level which is limiting snow accumulation.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement over Alaska, with differences
confined to systems over the North Pacific and the extent to
which they are able to eat into the dominant upper level ridge.
Do expect some intrusion of these systems into southern areas
(Aleutians/southern Alaska Peninsula) over the next couple days,
but the southern mainland will remain safely protected by the
ridge. Overall, forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Most of Southcentral Alaska remains under high pressure to the
north keeping the area clear. The typical gap winds are
persisting in this patten with the Palmer-Wasilla are remaining in
the core of the Matanuska River wind channel. While some winds
have diminished a little in this area today it is looking like the
winds will remain gusty (but not as strong as early this week)
through Friday night. A front over the Kodiak area is bringing
strong northeast flow to the area and rain and snow showers. While
the precipitation type has fluctuated some today it looks like
the majority of the precipitation will be snow through tomorrow
morning. Winds will also significantly diminish tomorrow morning.
However winds will increase again Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and Sat)...
High pressure will remain in place over the mainland while a
series of fronts push up against the south side of the Alaska
Peninsula. The first front will move into the area on Fri and then
the next on Sat. The only real sensible weather impact from these
will be slight pulses to the strength of the winds. Precipitation
will be confined to the east side of the Alaska Range and the
Alaska Peninsula. Temperatures will slowly modify as the synoptic
flow switches from northeast to more of an east to southeast
direction as we head towards the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The potent closed blocking high will remain firmly in place over
Eastern Siberia. Thus, expect little change to the pattern.
Easterly winds will continue to gusty across the Eastern Bering
out through the Western Aleutians. With this cold air advection,
we can't rule out a stray snow shower or flurry. A sprawling area
of low pressure will set-up just south of the Central Aleutians on
Fri. This will allow two warm occlusions to bring some more
moisture and slightly warmer air to the area. With the cold air in
place, the first front will bring widespread gale-force winds and see
precipitation start as snow from the Alaska Peninsula through
Shemya. However, warm air will continue to chip away and
eventually allow most of this precipitation to change over to rain
by late Fri. The sprawling low will drift slightly north on Sat.
This will bring warmer temperatures and a chance for widespread
precipitation to the Central Bering for the first time in over a
week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the long term forecast period Saturday night, the
strong omega blocking high will still be in place over Eastern
Siberia and northwest Alaska. There will be a weakening upper
trough (deforming and stretching) over Southern Alaska with a
strong arctic surface high over the interior. A relatively stationary
front will stretch from the western Bering Sea to Kodiak Island
and then to the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. Energetic shortwave
troughs will slowly but surely push the front farther north toward
the Gulf Coast, slowly eroding the arctic high in place Sunday.
However, with the stout blocking high in place, it now seems
quite likely that fronts moving up toward the coast will stretch
and deform, keeping most if not all of Southern Alaska dry (with
the exception of the immediate coastline and Kodiak Island).
Eventually, troughing will re-establish itself over the western
Bering Sea, keeping the low track to the west of the mainland.
Temperatures should moderate back to near normal next week as the
arctic high slowly weakens.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 127 130 132 138 150 155 165 170 172-176 179 180.
         Heavy freezing spray 126-128 160 180 185 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...JA