Alert archive / South Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Aberdeen, SD

June 27, 2018Buffalo County, Lyman County, South Dakota

NWS Aberdeen, SD issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 27, 2018, 6:43 AM CDT for Buffalo County, Lyman County, South Dakota. It was in force for 17 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 27, 2018, 6:43 AM CDT (11:43 UTC)
Expired: Jun 27, 2018, 7:00 AM CDT
In force: 17 min
Issued by: NWS Aberdeen, SD
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Buffalo County, SD, Lyman County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 193 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 27, 6:48 AM CDT	HAIL 1	5 N Oacoma, SD	HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 5 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 27, 12:12 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 39 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -213 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1431 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 96 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

758 
WUUS53 KABR 271143
SVRABR
SDC017-085-271200-
/O.NEW.KABR.SV.W.0098.180627T1143Z-180627T1200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
643 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

The National Weather Service in Aberdeen has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  East central Lyman County in central South Dakota...
  South central Buffalo County in central South Dakota...

* Until 700 AM CDT.

* At 642 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Oacoma, or 7
  miles northwest of Chamberlain, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Oacoma, Dude Ranch and Lake Francis Case. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4382 9954 4399 9946 4393 9914 4393 9935
      4390 9936 4388 9932 4386 9931 4380 9935
      4378 9939 4378 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 1142Z 288DEG 27KT 4389 9941 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Connelly

1 follow-up statement

735 
WWUS53 KABR 271159
SVSABR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
659 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

SDC017-085-271208-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-180627T1200Z/
Lyman SD-Buffalo SD-
659 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LYMAN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BUFFALO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 700 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for
central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4382 9954 4399 9946 4393 9914 4393 9935
      4390 9936 4388 9932 4386 9931 4380 9935
      4378 9939 4378 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 1158Z 288DEG 27KT 4385 9926 

$$

Connelly

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 27, 1:48 AM CDT, 4 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 1:48 AM CDT, 4 hours 55 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
148 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Tracking several cells west river and the consensus from SPC and as
is indicated by CAMS to become mainly a wind producer as it heads
southeast along the gradient of MUCAPE with around 1000j/kg DCAPE.
This convection will force a surface front down into south central
South Dakota by morning, while dry air filters in from North Dakota
into our northern tier. The convective boundary may be a focus for
additional convection, however we will see some ridging aloft today,
with no waves evident, though 700mb temperatures only begin to see
strong warm advection tonight. CAMS hint that any convection will be
weak and isolated under the lack of forcing aloft, even though GFS
BUFKIT profiles are unstable - so its something to watch but
probably won't be an issue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Weak ridging will give way to southwest flow aloft on Thursday.
Plenty of energy moving through this pattern, and the severe setup is
looking quite favorable (3000+ J/KG of CAPE, 40 KTS of 0-6 KM shear,
8 C/KM 700-500 MB lapse rates, 15 KTS of 0-1 KM shear) however, the
tricky part of the forecast will be how strong and how far north the
CAP sets up and inhibits development. Most models are showing 700 mb
temps across the northern CWA anywhere from 13 C to 15 C (up to 17 C
across the southern CWA) by 00Z Friday. If storms can develop in our
CWA it will likely be across the far north, otherwise, it looks like
it is going to be mainly a North Dakota show. Most deterministic
models suggest an MCS developing over western ND and tracking east
Thursday night into Friday morning.

The surface low and associated cold front track across the CWA
Friday morning, likely setting up just on the eastern edge of our
CWA by Friday afternoon/evening. Models still show surface dewpoints
quite high across the far eastern CWA, so it will just be a matter
of timing of the front as to weather storms develop in our CWA or
east of our CWA. Otherwise, the upper level trough approaches and
models are showing post frontal thunderstorm development late Friday
through they day Saturday.

A zonal flow pattern returns for Sunday and the beginning of the
work week. Temperatures rise and moisture returns the region by the
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

MVFR cigs will work their way back over the far eastern part of the
CWA overnight, affecting KATY. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are also possible from the northwestern CWA to the south central CWA
overnight. MVFR vsbys will be possible with the thunderstorms. VFR
conditions will prevail during the day Wednesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Connelly

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 27, 3:41 AM CDT, 3 hours 2 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
341 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-280845-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
341 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 /241 AM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Early morning storms over central South Dakota, isolated severe,
will track southeast and exit the region by late morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Another round of severe storms is possible Thursday afternoon into
Friday. The threat is greatest for northwest South Dakota and much
of North Dakota, although the atmosphere will be prime for
thunderstorms across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather today and
Thursday.

KS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 27, 1:24 AM CDT, 5 hours 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
124 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW SHAMBO RANCH       45.55N 101.87W
06/27/2018  E59 MPH          CORSON             SD   MESONET

&&

KS

Local storm report, Jun 27, 2:31 AM CDT, 4 hours 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
231 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE EAGLE BUTTE       45.06N 101.20W
06/27/2018  M56 MPH          DEWEY              SD   MESONET

&&

KS

Local storm report, Jun 27, 4:08 AM CDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
408 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 WNW BLUNT             44.55N 100.08W
06/27/2018  E55 MPH          SULLY              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

KS

Local storm report, Jun 27, 4:35 AM CDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
435 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE HARROLD           44.53N 99.72W
06/27/2018  E58 MPH          HUGHES             SD   MESONET

&&

KS

Local storm report, Jun 27, 5:28 AM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
528 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE SHELBY             43.98N 99.14W
06/27/2018  M62 MPH          BUFFALO            SD   MESONET

&&

MC

Local storm report, Jun 27, 5:51 AM CDT, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
551 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     FLOOD            3 WNW WEST BEND REC ARE 44.19N 99.78W
06/27/2018                   HUGHES             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING OVER WESTBEND ROAD.

&&

MC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Aberdeen, SD issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 27, 12:39 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Corson	51 min
Jun 27, 1:18 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Corson, Dewey	42 min
Jun 27, 1:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Dewey	47 min
Jun 27, 2:42 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Dewey, Potter, Sully	48 min
Jun 27, 3:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Dewey, Hughes, Stanley, Sully	47 min
Jun 27, 4:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Buffalo, Hughes, Hyde, Lyman	47 min
Jun 27, 4:49 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Buffalo, Hand, Hyde, Lyman	26 min
Jun 27, 5:44 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	ABR	Hughes	3 hr
Jun 27, 6:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Buffalo, Lyman	32 min
Jun 27, 6:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Hughes, Stanley	29 min
Jun 27, 6:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Hughes, Lyman, Stanley	30 min
Jun 27, 6:50 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ABR	Hughes, Stanley	3 hr
Jun 27, 6:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Hughes, Lyman, Stanley	37 min
Jun 27, 7:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Buffalo, Lyman	50 min
Jun 27, 8:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Lyman	17 min
Jun 27, 9:34 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	ABR	Lyman	3 hr
Jun 27, 9:48 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	ABR	Hughes, Stanley, Sully	3 hr
Jun 27, 10:03 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ABR	Lyman	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in South Dakota, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.