Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
148 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Tracking several cells west river and the consensus from SPC and as
is indicated by CAMS to become mainly a wind producer as it heads
southeast along the gradient of MUCAPE with around 1000j/kg DCAPE.
This convection will force a surface front down into south central
South Dakota by morning, while dry air filters in from North Dakota
into our northern tier. The convective boundary may be a focus for
additional convection, however we will see some ridging aloft today,
with no waves evident, though 700mb temperatures only begin to see
strong warm advection tonight. CAMS hint that any convection will be
weak and isolated under the lack of forcing aloft, even though GFS
BUFKIT profiles are unstable - so its something to watch but
probably won't be an issue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Weak ridging will give way to southwest flow aloft on Thursday.
Plenty of energy moving through this pattern, and the severe setup is
looking quite favorable (3000+ J/KG of CAPE, 40 KTS of 0-6 KM shear,
8 C/KM 700-500 MB lapse rates, 15 KTS of 0-1 KM shear) however, the
tricky part of the forecast will be how strong and how far north the
CAP sets up and inhibits development. Most models are showing 700 mb
temps across the northern CWA anywhere from 13 C to 15 C (up to 17 C
across the southern CWA) by 00Z Friday. If storms can develop in our
CWA it will likely be across the far north, otherwise, it looks like
it is going to be mainly a North Dakota show. Most deterministic
models suggest an MCS developing over western ND and tracking east
Thursday night into Friday morning.

The surface low and associated cold front track across the CWA
Friday morning, likely setting up just on the eastern edge of our
CWA by Friday afternoon/evening. Models still show surface dewpoints
quite high across the far eastern CWA, so it will just be a matter
of timing of the front as to weather storms develop in our CWA or
east of our CWA. Otherwise, the upper level trough approaches and
models are showing post frontal thunderstorm development late Friday
through they day Saturday.

A zonal flow pattern returns for Sunday and the beginning of the
work week. Temperatures rise and moisture returns the region by the
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

MVFR cigs will work their way back over the far eastern part of the
CWA overnight, affecting KATY. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are also possible from the northwestern CWA to the south central CWA
overnight. MVFR vsbys will be possible with the thunderstorms. VFR
conditions will prevail during the day Wednesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Connelly

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
749 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-036-037-051-271300-
Traverse-Big Stone-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Edmunds-Day-
Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo-
749 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

An isolated thunderstorm or two will move in from the west
Wednesday morning. The risk for severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048-271300-
Corson-Campbell-Walworth-Dewey-Potter-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Jones-
Lyman-
749 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018 /649 AM MDT Tue Jun 26 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota and north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight with a fast
moving system. An isolated stronger storm or two could produce hail
and strong winds, which are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Connelly

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
124 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW SHAMBO RANCH       45.55N 101.87W
06/27/2018  E59 MPH          CORSON             SD   MESONET

&&

KS