Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Aberdeen, SD

874 
WGUS73 KABR 271751
FFSABR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1251 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

SDC085-271801-
/O.EXP.KABR.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180627T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lyman SD-
1251 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LYMAN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 100 PM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4385 9964 4396 9956 4388 9931 4386 9931
      4380 9935 4379 9938 4377 9941

$$

Lueck

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Tracking several cells west river and the consensus from SPC and as
is indicated by CAMS to become mainly a wind producer as it heads
southeast along the gradient of MUCAPE with around 1000j/kg DCAPE.
This convection will force a surface front down into south central
South Dakota by morning, while dry air filters in from North Dakota
into our northern tier. The convective boundary may be a focus for
additional convection, however we will see some ridging aloft today,
with no waves evident, though 700mb temperatures only begin to see
strong warm advection tonight. CAMS hint that any convection will be
weak and isolated under the lack of forcing aloft, even though GFS
BUFKIT profiles are unstable - so its something to watch but
probably won't be an issue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Weak ridging will give way to southwest flow aloft on Thursday.
Plenty of energy moving through this pattern, and the severe setup is
looking quite favorable (3000+ J/KG of CAPE, 40 KTS of 0-6 KM shear,
8 C/KM 700-500 MB lapse rates, 15 KTS of 0-1 KM shear) however, the
tricky part of the forecast will be how strong and how far north the
CAP sets up and inhibits development. Most models are showing 700 mb
temps across the northern CWA anywhere from 13 C to 15 C (up to 17 C
across the southern CWA) by 00Z Friday. If storms can develop in our
CWA it will likely be across the far north, otherwise, it looks like
it is going to be mainly a North Dakota show. Most deterministic
models suggest an MCS developing over western ND and tracking east
Thursday night into Friday morning.

The surface low and associated cold front track across the CWA
Friday morning, likely setting up just on the eastern edge of our
CWA by Friday afternoon/evening. Models still show surface dewpoints
quite high across the far eastern CWA, so it will just be a matter
of timing of the front as to weather storms develop in our CWA or
east of our CWA. Otherwise, the upper level trough approaches and
models are showing post frontal thunderstorm development late Friday
through they day Saturday.

A zonal flow pattern returns for Sunday and the beginning of the
work week. Temperatures rise and moisture returns the region by the
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

An area of showers and thunderstorms continues to track east
southeast across parts of central South Dakota this morning.
Several rounds of thunderstorms will impact the KPIR terminal
through 14Z, including the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds,
and small hail. Further east, light rain and fog is reducing VSBY
to IFR category in the KATY region. The system is expected to
exit the region by this afternoon, and VFR conditions will follow.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Serr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
341 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-280845-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
341 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 /241 AM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Early morning storms over central South Dakota, isolated severe,
will track southeast and exit the region by late morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Another round of severe storms is possible Thursday afternoon into
Friday. The threat is greatest for northwest South Dakota and much
of North Dakota, although the atmosphere will be prime for
thunderstorms across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather today and
Thursday.

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
838 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 AM     HAIL             OACOMA                  43.80N 99.38W
06/27/2018  E1.75 INCH       LYMAN              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL ACCOMPANIED BY 50 - 60 MPH WINDS. HEAVY
            RAIN, LOTS OF STANDING WATER AND HAIL
            COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
854 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 AM     HAIL             5 N OACOMA              43.87N 99.38W
06/27/2018  E1.00 INCH       LYMAN              SD   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
908 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 AM     HAIL             7 WSW CEDAR CREEK REC A 44.10N 100.05W
06/27/2018  E1.25 INCH       LYMAN              SD   PUBLIC

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
933 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 AM     HAIL             6 SSW FORT PIERRE       44.29N 100.44W
06/27/2018  E1.00 INCH       STANLEY            SD   PUBLIC

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
936 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     HAIL             6 SSW FORT PIERRE       44.29N 100.44W
06/27/2018  E1.00 INCH       STANLEY            SD   PUBLIC

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
946 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S RELIANCE            43.86N 99.60W
06/27/2018                   LYMAN              SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BILLBOARDS ALONG INTERSTATE BLOWN OVER.

&&

TMK