Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
335 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft remains over Arizona with an upper level
disturbance expected to drop from Utah southeastward into New Mexico.
This will produce a swath of additional showers and thunderstorms
over central and east central New Mexico into the evening hours with
some storms turning strong to severe with heavy downpours, gusty
winds, and hail. Into Thursday, high pressure will inch toward the
Arizona-New Mexico border with showers and thunderstorms favoring
the central mountain chain and the Continental Divide before moving
into some adjacent lower elevations. A similar thunderstorm trend
will persist into Friday with temperatures hovering near to just
slightly above average for early August. High pressure will slowly
build over New Mexico this weekend, reducing storms somewhat, but not
completely inhibiting them.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The short wave disturbance can be seen on water vapor imagery over
Utah, and should drop southeastward, pushing lift and an associated
arc-shaped line of new convection into NM into the night. Storms
will continue to have a tendency to be strong to severe, as
prevailing surface winds are primarily exhibiting south southwesterly
components with the northerly flow in the mid troposphere, yielding
increased bulk shear values. A quick glimpse of the radar and
satellite verifies the high instability advertised by the models, and
convection should remain fairly active into the evening. Lower PWATs
are wrapping over the northern mountains of NM, but elsewhere PWATs
range from about 1.0 to 1.5 inch and will add a locally heavy
rainfall threat.

Into Thursday, the wave will have passed through offering a lull as
a brief wave of subsidence passes over, but into the late afternoon
and evening more storms are expected to fire along and west of the
central mountain chain. Drier PWATs will linger over the northern
mountains, and steering flow won't benefit from any speed increases
as the dome of high pressure nudges toward the AZ-NM border. This
would, however, begin to limit the severity of storms with bulk
shear slowly decreasing. As far as temperatures are concerned, a
persistence forecast seems suffice with a few localized areas
observing premature temperature drops during storms.

By Friday, the anticyclone jogs slightly south with a similar storm
and temperature regime continuing over NM. Again, lowest PWATs would
be found over the northern mountains, but heftier values between 1.0
and 1.4 would be found in the southwestern mountains and near/just
east of the central mountain chain. By the weekend high pressure
expands some with a potential ill-defined centroid appearing in
southwestern or south central NM. Mid-tropospheric pressure heights
will not be much higher than they are now, possibly just a couple
decameters higher, but this seems to be enough subsidence to reduce,
but not fully eliminate storm coverage.

After staying atop of NM for the first part of next week, the
anticyclone should creep back over and even northwest of the Four
Corners region by late Tuesday and Wednesday. This would make storm
potential heavily reliant on back door frontal intrusions, which the
GFS is already advocating, with one entering northeastern NM by
Tuesday and shoving more low layer moisture westward into the evening
and on into Wednesday.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have developed across
much of the higher terrain this afternoon. This activity will merge
into the Rio Grande Valley then become a large convective complex
over eastern NM this evening. Upper level high pressure will drift
east into western NM through Friday and bring steering flow to a
halt. This will elevate the potential for flash flooding over the
entire area, especially around burn scars. High temperatures will be
near to slightly above normal in this pattern.

Upper level high pressure will strengthen enough over the weekend to
suppress the coverage of showers and storms. Temperatures will warm
a few more degrees above normal with lower humidity and poor to fair
ventilation. The high center is shown to shift back to the northwest
early next week and allow deeper moisture to return to NM. This
pattern will trend temperatures closer to normal with more heavy rain
possible.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Clouds forming over the high terrain and parts of eastern NM will
develop into SHRA/TSRA thru 21Z. Storm motions will be toward the
south-southeast around 10-15 kt. The focus today will start on the
central mt chain as individual cells by 21Z then become small storm
clusters before organizing into a large convective complex over the
eastern plains. This large complex will move southeast thru 06Z and
impact KTCC and KROW during the evening before dissipating to an area
of light rain and thick mid level clouds.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  95  66  93 /  10  10  20  10
Dulce...........................  52  91  53  90 /  20  20  40  30
Cuba............................  56  90  56  88 /  20  20  50  30
Gallup..........................  58  92  58  89 /  20  30  30  20
El Morro........................  55  85  55  83 /  30  40  60  30
Grants..........................  58  90  59  88 /  20  30  50  30
Quemado.........................  57  86  56  83 /  50  30  60  40
Glenwood........................  65  91  63  87 /  40  50  50  30
Chama...........................  49  83  50  82 /  40  60  50  30
Los Alamos......................  60  85  63  83 /  40  30  50  50
Pecos...........................  57  82  58  82 /  50  50  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  51  83  53  81 /  40  30  30  30
Red River.......................  48  75  48  75 /  50  40  40  30
Angel Fire......................  45  78  44  78 /  50  60  50  30
Taos............................  51  88  53  87 /  30  30  30  30
Mora............................  52  82  53  82 /  50  50  40  40
Espanola........................  59  91  61  89 /  30  20  30  20
Santa Fe........................  59  86  61  83 /  50  20  40  30
Santa Fe Airport................  59  90  60  88 /  40  20  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  92  66  90 /  40  20  40  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  93  69  92 /  40  20  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  94  64  93 /  30  20  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  93  68  92 /  40  20  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  61  95  63  94 /  30  20  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  66  94  67  93 /  40  20  40  20
Socorro.........................  66  96  68  94 /  40  20  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  86  60  85 /  50  20  50  30
Tijeras.........................  57  89  60  88 /  40  20  50  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  91  56  89 /  60  20  30  20
Clines Corners..................  57  87  58  85 /  60  20  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  58  90  59  88 /  50  20  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  63  89  64  89 /  50  20  40  10
Ruidoso.........................  57  84  58  83 /  60  30  50  30
Capulin.........................  54  83  57  83 /  50  20  20  50
Raton...........................  53  88  56  87 /  40  20  30  30
Springer........................  55  89  56  89 /  40  20  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  55  83  55  83 /  50  40  40  30
Clayton.........................  58  88  61  90 /  50  10  10  20
Roy.............................  58  86  60  87 /  50  20  30  20
Conchas.........................  64  94  66  95 /  70  10  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  63  91  65  93 /  70  10  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  63  96  67  97 /  60  10  10   5
Clovis..........................  62  91  65  93 /  50  10  10   5
Portales........................  63  93  65  95 /  50  10  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  93  68  95 /  60  10  20  10
Roswell.........................  69  98  71  99 /  40  10  20   5
Picacho.........................  64  89  66  90 /  50  20  20  20
Elk.............................  61  86  62  85 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

52

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
237 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

NMZ515-528-012100-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
237 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MORA COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
MDT...

At 237 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Cueva, or 8 miles northeast of Mora, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Cueva, Golondrinas, Luceros, Ojo Feliz and Rainsville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 10493 3581 10515 3582 10517 3600 10533
      3613 10517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 314DEG 8KT 3602 10519

40

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
345 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

NMZ533-537-012215-
Guadalupe County-De Baca County-
345 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL DE BACA AND EAST
CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 345 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sumner Lake State Park, or 19 miles northwest of Fort Sumner, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sumner Lake State Park and Sumner Lake.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 10458 3480 10445 3469 10417 3447 10436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 306DEG 11KT 3469 10445

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
351 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             BUENA VISTA             35.91N 105.25W
07/31/2018  E1.00 INCH       MORA               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800773

JLS

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