Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
551 PM MDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will continue to track
southward around 10-15kt across northern NM through the evening
hours. Hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain can be expected. MVFR vsbys
are possible with these storms. KLVS and KSAF have the greatest
chances to be impacted, however, outflow boundary collisions may
result in storms near KABQ once again tonight. Some storms may linger
throughout the overnight hours. Another round of thunderstorms can be
expected Wednesday afternoon, favoring northeast NM.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...228 PM MDT Tue Jul 31 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
The active weather pattern will continue through the forecast period
with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms each day and night,
mostly in the afternoons and evenings.

High pressure remains near the UT/NV/AZ borders. It will drift
southeast into AZ Wednesday and approach the AZ/NM border Thursday.
It quickly reforms off the CA coast Friday, remains there Saturday
then it's centered over NM Sunday. The high will strengthen early
next week while remaining close to NM. A couple of short wave troughs
will slip into northeast NM the remainder of this week, one Wednesday
evening and another Friday evening. These will provide a fresh batch
of deep moisture to much of the state. The second half of the week
will be very active with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The
storm activity will diminish some over the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A slow start to the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with
pretty much just the Southwest Mountains getting any decent
lightning. Things will pick up late this afternoon and this evening
with isolated showers and storms everywhere but the far northwest,
closest to the upper high pressure area. A few storms could become
severe in central NM. The convection will be slow to diminish after
midnight tonight.

High pressure aloft will drift into AZ Wednesday while a short wave
trough approaches from the northwest. This trough will drop into
eastern NM and bring enhanced moisture and convection Wednesday
night, with western areas active as well. Western and central areas
will be favored for storms Thursday into Thursday night, while the
east stabilizes some.

The nearby high pressure area will quickly retreat off the west coast
Friday as the next short wave trough moves in from the northwest.
Late Friday and Friday night will again be very active with plenty of
showers and thunderstorms. The upper high will move back over NM this
coming weekend and strengthen nearby early next week. This will
result in less convection, with scattered storms over the mountains
and isolated over the valleys and eastern highlands. The eastern
plains will see less storm coverage over the weekend and may be
completely dry early next week.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Deep layer moisture will continue increasing over New Mexico through
the remainder of this week. High pressure over eastern Arizona will
drift eastward and weaken through late week. This will set the stage
for north to south steering flow to become very light and elevate
the flash flood threat. Friday to Saturday currently appears to be
the most active period with near record precipitable water values.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal in this pattern
for the entire area. Min humidity will range from near 20% across
western NM to near 40% along the TX border. Overnight max humidity
recoveries will be good to excellent areawide. An overall decrease
in the coverage of showers and storms is possible by Sunday as upper
level high pressure strengthens over NM.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
305 AM MDT Tue Jul 31 2018

NMZ501>540-011130-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
305 AM MDT Tue Jul 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop over the
northern and western mountains early this afternoon, moving south
over the lower elevations during late afternoon and early evening..
A few strong storms are possible this afternoon and evening with
locally heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Storm coverage is forecast to increase Wednesday and remain active
Thursday through the weekend. Strong to severe storms are possible in
eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additionally,
localized flash flooding, especially over and near recent burn
scars, is possible each afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
810 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     HAIL             5 SSW JEMEZ SPRINGS     35.71N 106.72W
07/31/2018  M1.75 INCH       SANDOVAL           NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800765

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
811 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSW JEMEZ SPRINGS     35.71N 106.72W
07/31/2018                   SANDOVAL           NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800766

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
822 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             YOUNGSVILLE             36.19N 106.56W
07/31/2018  E2.00 INCH       RIO ARRIBA         NM   TWITTER FEED

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800767

JLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
837 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             3 W RIO RANCHO          35.27N 106.71W
07/31/2018  E1.00 INCH       SANDOVAL           NM   NWS EMPLOYEE

            IDALIA AND UNSER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800768

JLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
849 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     HAIL             1 ESE RIO RANCHO        35.27N 106.65W
07/31/2018  E0.88 INCH       SANDOVAL           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NORTHERN AND ROCKAWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800769

JLS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
853 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

NMZ522-524-010330-
South Central Highlands-Estancia Valley-
853 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM MDT...

At 853 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Estancia, moving south at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Estancia, Mountainair and Willard.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 10628 3453 10625 3453 10622 3456 10624
      3482 10614 3478 10592 3438 10597
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 011DEG 27KT 3473 10605

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