Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Albuquerque, NM

287 
WGUS75 KABQ 010305
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
905 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

NMC043-010445-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180801T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sandoval-
905 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY...

At 903 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated the thunderstorm that 
produced heavy rain and hail across the Jemez Mountains, including 
along Highway 4 near Jemez Springs, has moved to the south. However, 
runoff from this storm may still produce flash flooding across the 
area. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Jemez Springs, San Ysidro, Jemez State Monument, Jemez Pueblo,
Ponderosa and Zia Pueblo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flash flooding.

Most flood related deaths occur in automobiles. Do not attempt to
cross water covered bridges, dips or low water crossings.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 10661 3555 10668 3555 10686 3583 10680

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
551 PM MDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will continue to track
southward around 10-15kt across northern NM through the evening
hours. Hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain can be expected. MVFR vsbys
are possible with these storms. KLVS and KSAF have the greatest
chances to be impacted, however, outflow boundary collisions may
result in storms near KABQ once again tonight. Some storms may linger
throughout the overnight hours. Another round of thunderstorms can be
expected Wednesday afternoon, favoring northeast NM.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...228 PM MDT Tue Jul 31 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
The active weather pattern will continue through the forecast period
with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms each day and night,
mostly in the afternoons and evenings.

High pressure remains near the UT/NV/AZ borders. It will drift
southeast into AZ Wednesday and approach the AZ/NM border Thursday.
It quickly reforms off the CA coast Friday, remains there Saturday
then it's centered over NM Sunday. The high will strengthen early
next week while remaining close to NM. A couple of short wave troughs
will slip into northeast NM the remainder of this week, one Wednesday
evening and another Friday evening. These will provide a fresh batch
of deep moisture to much of the state. The second half of the week
will be very active with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The
storm activity will diminish some over the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A slow start to the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with
pretty much just the Southwest Mountains getting any decent
lightning. Things will pick up late this afternoon and this evening
with isolated showers and storms everywhere but the far northwest,
closest to the upper high pressure area. A few storms could become
severe in central NM. The convection will be slow to diminish after
midnight tonight.

High pressure aloft will drift into AZ Wednesday while a short wave
trough approaches from the northwest. This trough will drop into
eastern NM and bring enhanced moisture and convection Wednesday
night, with western areas active as well. Western and central areas
will be favored for storms Thursday into Thursday night, while the
east stabilizes some.

The nearby high pressure area will quickly retreat off the west coast
Friday as the next short wave trough moves in from the northwest.
Late Friday and Friday night will again be very active with plenty of
showers and thunderstorms. The upper high will move back over NM this
coming weekend and strengthen nearby early next week. This will
result in less convection, with scattered storms over the mountains
and isolated over the valleys and eastern highlands. The eastern
plains will see less storm coverage over the weekend and may be
completely dry early next week.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Deep layer moisture will continue increasing over New Mexico through
the remainder of this week. High pressure over eastern Arizona will
drift eastward and weaken through late week. This will set the stage
for north to south steering flow to become very light and elevate
the flash flood threat. Friday to Saturday currently appears to be
the most active period with near record precipitable water values.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal in this pattern
for the entire area. Min humidity will range from near 20% across
western NM to near 40% along the TX border. Overnight max humidity
recoveries will be good to excellent areawide. An overall decrease
in the coverage of showers and storms is possible by Sunday as upper
level high pressure strengthens over NM.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
305 AM MDT Tue Jul 31 2018

NMZ501>540-011130-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
305 AM MDT Tue Jul 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop over the
northern and western mountains early this afternoon, moving south
over the lower elevations during late afternoon and early evening..
A few strong storms are possible this afternoon and evening with
locally heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Storm coverage is forecast to increase Wednesday and remain active
Thursday through the weekend. Strong to severe storms are possible in
eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additionally,
localized flash flooding, especially over and near recent burn
scars, is possible each afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
502 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

NMZ530-312330-
Union County-
502 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

At 502 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clayton Lake State Park, or 9 miles north of Clayton, moving south at
35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Clayton Lake State Park and Seneca.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 10333 3667 10311 3634 10305 3637 10342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 354DEG 30KT 3659 10322

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
516 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

NMZ530-312345-
Union County-
516 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
MDT...

At 516 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Dora, or 19 miles west of Clayton, moving south at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Dora.

&&

LAT...LON 3647 10367 3655 10346 3631 10328 3621 10359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 337DEG 12KT 3645 10353

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             1 NNW YOUNGSVILLE       36.20N 106.56W
07/31/2018  M0.75 INCH       RIO ARRIBA         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800760

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
654 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             CARRIZOZO               33.64N 105.88W
07/31/2018  M0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800761

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
703 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             7 NNE JEMEZ SPRINGS     35.87N 106.64W
07/31/2018  E1.00 INCH       SANDOVAL           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800762

JLS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
733 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

NMZ520-524-525-010200-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Highlands-Lower Rio Grande
Valley-
733 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL LINCOLN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

At 733 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles northwest of Three Rivers, or 27 miles west of Carrizozo,
moving southwest at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Lincoln and south central Socorro Counties.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3348 10637 3348 10658 3353 10663 3362 10636
      3350 10614 3339 10631 3339 10637
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 051DEG 11KT 3354 10635

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