Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
242 PM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A good chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight
into Sunday. Some storms will generate heavy rain and strong
winds. A drying trend will begin Monday and continue during the
upcoming week, with only isolated thunderstorms mainly east to
south of Tucson by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Plenty of moisture with precipitable water ranging
from 1.4 to 1.75 inches. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the area, favoring eastern mountains so far. We're fighting
a little subsidence and weak NVA in Pima and Santa Cruz counties
early this afternoon. Things will probably remain isolated in the
lower deserts, but we'll get busier in eastern Pima and Santa Cruz
counties this evening as a weakness in the flow lifts toward the
area through northern Sonora and organized convection pushes
strong outflow up from the south.

Deep moisture continues Sunday with a decent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain and isolated severe
possible.

The westerly flow is only going to increase as the trough digs
into the region northwest of us early next week. By late Monday or
Tuesday, upstream conditions will be drying fairly rapidly and
translating to another downturn or complete shutdown for the
monsoon this far north and west. Unseasonably low heights and
thicknesses with the troughiness north of us, so even as we dry
out temperatures shouldn't get too out of hand.

We'll try to rebuild a favorable pattern next weekend with high
pressure east of the area, but a stronger ridge off the coast may
win out and delay the return of a consistent fetch of deeper
moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 14/00Z.
Scattered TSRA/SHRA this afternoon, increasing in the evening
hours before slowly diminishing after 13/06Z. Storms increasing
Sunday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities near the stronger TSRA.
Strong and gusty outflow winds to 45 knots with the TSRA,
otherwise SFC winds generally less than 12 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A good chance of thunderstorms this weekend
followed by a decrease in thunderstorms from west-to-east Monday
into next Friday. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will likely be limited to locales east-to-south of Tucson most of
next week. 20-foot winds will generally be terrain driven less
than 15 mph apart from gusty thunderstorms outflows.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Meyer

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
323 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZZ507-513-122315-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-
323 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MST...

At 322 PM MST, A strong thunderstorm was located about 9 miles north
of Huachuca City, moving east at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Benson, Kartchner Caverns State Park, Saint David and St. David.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 11044 3183 11045 3195 11017 3176 11010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 253DEG 9KT 3178 11036

French

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
611 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZZ502-130145-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-
611 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM MST...

At 610 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles southwest of Santa Rosa, or 32 miles northwest of Sells, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vaya Chin, San Simon Village and Pisinemo.

LAT...LON 3203 11229 3210 11248 3244 11237 3235 11209
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 202DEG 18KT 3214 11236

Francis

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