Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Tucson, AZ

653 
WGUS75 KTWC 131006
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
306 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2017

AZC021-131100-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-170813T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pinal-
306 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM MST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...

At 302 AM MST, Doppler radar continued to indicate thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain across south central Pinal county. Rainfall 
gauges from this area indicate that between 1.0 and 2.0 inches of 
rainfall has occurred, with heavier amounts along state highway 79 
north of Oracle Junction.  

Normally dry washes and low water crossings may be inundated in the
following locations...
Saddlebrooke, Red Rock and Oracle Junction. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3274 11096 3252 11082 3252 11114 3251 11117
      3251 11139 3285 11138 3295 11110

$$

Zell

220 
WGUS75 KTWC 131101
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
401 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2017

AZC021-131110-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-170813T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pinal-
401 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

The heavy rainfall has ended, with only light to moderate rain in 
south central Pinal county. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3274 11096 3252 11082 3252 11114 3251 11117
      3251 11139 3285 11138 3295 11110

$$

Zell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
944 PM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A good chance of showers and thunderstorms into Sunday.
Some storms will generate heavy rain and strong winds. A drying
trend  will begin Monday and continue during the upcoming week, with
only isolated thunderstorms mainly east to south of Tucson by mid
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
occurring at this time southeast of Tucson across much of Cochise
County. Other isolated showers and thunderstorms were also occurring
northwest of Tucson, north of Safford, and just south of the
international border south of Nogales. Heavy rainfall earlier this
evening produced minor flooding in vicinity of Douglas. Am somewhat
concerned about the developing area of showers/tstms just south of
Nogales. This activity may eventually produce a rapid rise in the
Nogales Wash during the next few hours or so.

There will be ample moisture and sufficient instability to maintain
scattered showers/tstms especially east-to-south of Tucson the rest
of tonight. Isolated showers/tstms should also still occur across
the Tucson metro area and northwestward into south central Pinal
County. Dry conditions should prevail across western Pima County.
The bulk of showers/tstms is expected to dissipate by daybreak
Sunday.

Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 14/06Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA northwest of KTUS and east-to-south of KTUS
mostly ending around daybreak Sunday. Scattered to numerous -TSRA/
-SHRA late Sunday morning into Sunday evening. Brief wind gusts to
around 40 kts and small hail with the stronger thunderstorms.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with surface wind variable in direction
mainly less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A good chance of thunderstorms this weekend
followed by a decrease in thunderstorms from west-to-east Monday
into next Friday. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will likely be limited to locales east-to-south of Tucson most of
the upcoming next week. 20-foot winds will generally be terrain
driven less than 15 mph apart from gusty thunderstorms outflows.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /242 PM MST/...Deep moisture continues Sunday with
a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain and
isolated severe possible.

The westerly flow is only going to increase as the trough digs into
the region northwest of us early next week. By late Monday or
Tuesday, upstream conditions will be drying fairly rapidly and
translating to another downturn or complete shutdown for the
monsoon this far north and west. Unseasonably low heights and
thicknesses with the troughiness north of us, so even as we dry
out temperatures shouldn't get too out of hand.

We'll try to rebuild a favorable pattern next weekend with high
pressure east of the area, but a stronger ridge off the coast may
win out and delay the return of a consistent fetch of deeper
moisture.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Francis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Meyer

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