Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Tucson, AZ

511 
WGUS75 KTWC 130853
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
153 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2017

AZC021-131000-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-170813T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pinal-
153 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY...

At 147 AM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across southeast Pinal county. Radar rainfall estimates that 
between 1.0" and 3.0 inches of rainfall has occurred in the area 
between Mammoth and Oracle. 

Normally dry washes and low water crossings may be inundated in the
following locations...
Mammoth, San Manuel, Oracle, Campo Bonito and Biosphere 2. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 11068 3277 11052 3264 11048 3253 11047
      3252 11082 3271 11094

$$

Zell

303 
WGUS75 KTWC 131001
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
301 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2017

AZC021-131010-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-170813T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pinal-
301 AM MST SUN AUG 13 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3281 11068 3277 11052 3264 11048 3253 11047
      3252 11082 3271 11094

$$

Zell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
944 PM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A good chance of showers and thunderstorms into Sunday.
Some storms will generate heavy rain and strong winds. A drying
trend  will begin Monday and continue during the upcoming week, with
only isolated thunderstorms mainly east to south of Tucson by mid
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
occurring at this time southeast of Tucson across much of Cochise
County. Other isolated showers and thunderstorms were also occurring
northwest of Tucson, north of Safford, and just south of the
international border south of Nogales. Heavy rainfall earlier this
evening produced minor flooding in vicinity of Douglas. Am somewhat
concerned about the developing area of showers/tstms just south of
Nogales. This activity may eventually produce a rapid rise in the
Nogales Wash during the next few hours or so.

There will be ample moisture and sufficient instability to maintain
scattered showers/tstms especially east-to-south of Tucson the rest
of tonight. Isolated showers/tstms should also still occur across
the Tucson metro area and northwestward into south central Pinal
County. Dry conditions should prevail across western Pima County.
The bulk of showers/tstms is expected to dissipate by daybreak
Sunday.

Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 14/06Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA northwest of KTUS and east-to-south of KTUS
mostly ending around daybreak Sunday. Scattered to numerous -TSRA/
-SHRA late Sunday morning into Sunday evening. Brief wind gusts to
around 40 kts and small hail with the stronger thunderstorms.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with surface wind variable in direction
mainly less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A good chance of thunderstorms this weekend
followed by a decrease in thunderstorms from west-to-east Monday
into next Friday. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will likely be limited to locales east-to-south of Tucson most of
the upcoming next week. 20-foot winds will generally be terrain
driven less than 15 mph apart from gusty thunderstorms outflows.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /242 PM MST/...Deep moisture continues Sunday with
a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain and
isolated severe possible.

The westerly flow is only going to increase as the trough digs into
the region northwest of us early next week. By late Monday or
Tuesday, upstream conditions will be drying fairly rapidly and
translating to another downturn or complete shutdown for the
monsoon this far north and west. Unseasonably low heights and
thicknesses with the troughiness north of us, so even as we dry
out temperatures shouldn't get too out of hand.

We'll try to rebuild a favorable pattern next weekend with high
pressure east of the area, but a stronger ridge off the coast may
win out and delay the return of a consistent fetch of deeper
moisture.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Francis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Meyer

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