Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 29, 2017

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 29, 2017, 4:30 PM MST. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 29, 2017, 4:30 PM MST (23:30 UTC)
Expired: Jul 29, 2017, 5:15 PM MST
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KDMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 212 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -163 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1399 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 2 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 29, 2:03 PM MST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 2:03 PM MST, 2 hours 27 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Sat Jul 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An elevated risk of thunderstorms will continue
this weekend with locally heavy rain and strong winds with some
storms. High temperatures will generally be a few degrees below
normal due to the rainfall coverage again Sunday and Monday. The
weather pattern will remain favorable for daily thunderstorms this
coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The morning upper-air sounding at Tucson showed a
very moist air mass in place, with a much weaker steering flow and
less vertical wind shear compared to yesterday. A couple of large-
scale features in play this weekend with the GOES-16 mid and upper
level water vapor imagery depicting two westward tracking upper
lows. One exiting the Texas Big Bend and the other over the southern
tip of Baja which will influence the upper level flow pattern today
and tomorrow. The latest 19Z HRRR solution focused most of the
rainfall across Pima, Santa Cruz, and Cochise counties through later
this evening. This was in good agreement with the current activity
late this morning and early this afternoon. Based on the weaker
steering flow and abundant moisture, flash flooding will continue to
be the main concern through this evening and likely again Sunday.
The overall flow pattern will remain favorable for daily showers and
thunderstorms, although a decreasing trend in rain chances after
this weekend. Daytime temperatures will warm a few degrees to more
normal readings starting Tuesday with the decrease in rainfall
coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 30/18Z.
Scattered to numerous TSRA/SHRA through later this evening. Brief
MVFR/IFR conditions likely in/near TSRA this afternoon and evening.
SFC wind variable in direction mainly less than 12 kts, except in
the vicinity of TSRA where gusts may exceed 40 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
into next week across most of southeast Arizona. Elevated humidities
will remain in place through the weekend into next week. Outside of
thunderstorm winds, expect 20-foot winds to remain at or below 15
mph and follow typical upslope/down valley diurnal patterns. Fire
weather concerns are low through at least late next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 3:15 PM MST, 1 hour 15 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
315 PM MST SAT JUL 29 2017

AZZ507-508-511-513-292300-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000
Feet including Douglas/Willcox-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains
including Mount Graham-
315 PM MST SAT JUL 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MST...

At 314 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Benson, or 20 miles southwest of Willcox. this
storm was nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
I-10 And Texas Canyon and Dragoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 11010 3198 11024 3206 11038 3220 11034
      3233 11024 3229 11005 3217 10992 3204 10999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 201DEG 1KT 3212 11015

Cerniglia

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 3:24 PM MST, 1 hour 6 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
324 PM MST SAT JUL 29 2017

AZZ508-292300-
Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
324 PM MST SAT JUL 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM MST...

At 323 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Douglas, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, small hail and heavy rain will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Bisbee-Douglas Airport and Pirtleville.

LAT...LON 3147 10979 3152 10957 3133 10945 3134 10973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 058DEG 8KT 3141 10960

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 3:57 PM MST, 33 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
357 PM MST SAT JUL 29 2017

AZZ507-292330-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson-
357 PM MST SAT JUL 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MST...

At 356 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Benson, or 21 miles north of Sierra Vista. this
storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Benson, Saint David and St. David.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 11008 3179 11001 3172 11023 3189 11033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 066DEG 4KT 3184 11015

GL

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 4:30 PM MST, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
430 PM MST SAT JUL 29 2017

AZZ508-512-300015-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
430 PM MST SAT JUL 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MST...

At 428 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
the Arizona and New Mexico state line east of San Simon. Movement
was west northwest at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 mph and blowing dust will be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
San Simon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3203 10906 3202 10945 3242 10920 3242 10905
      3205 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 098DEG 15KT 3232 10894 3203 10920

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 28, 5:08 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	2 hr
Jul 28, 5:22 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	3 hr
Jul 28, 5:29 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	3 hr
Jul 28, 5:36 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 28, 5:40 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	35 min
Jul 28, 5:55 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	35 min
Jul 28, 6:23 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	112 min
Jul 28, 6:55 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	35 min
Jul 28, 7:04 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	3 hr
Jul 28, 7:31 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Graham	3 hr
Jul 28, 8:48 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Graham	117 min
Jul 28, 9:09 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Jul 28, 9:19 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	116 min
Jul 28, 10:48 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 28, 11:16 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	119 min
Jul 29, 11:22 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	113 min
Jul 29, 11:29 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Jul 29, 12:26 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise, Pima, Santa Cruz	3 hr
Jul 29, 1:09 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	3 hr
Jul 29, 1:45 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 29, 1:50 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 29, 2:19 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	116 min
Jul 29, 2:41 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 29, 3:15 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	45 min
Jul 29, 3:24 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	36 min
Jul 29, 3:37 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	3 hr
Jul 29, 3:57 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	33 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2017 Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.