Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1150 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 06Z TAF forecast can be found below.

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
The forecast reasoning has not changed much from the 00Z forecast.
A complex of storms will move southeast during the overnight
across E OK and into W AR by early Sunday morning. Tried to hit
the most favored time window at each TAF site in tempo groups.
Some gusty winds and heavy rains will likely reduce vsbys to MVFR
or even IFR as they move thru. A brief period of MVFR cigs is also
possible Sunday morning before all sites return to VFR
conditions. Some potential for storms will exist mainly at the
southern sites of KFSM and KMLC on Sunday afternoon. Will cover
this with a VCTS mention.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 825 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A complex of thunderstorms that developed east of the surface low
this afternoon in south-central Kansas has finally begun to make
some eastward propagation this evening along a quasi-stationary
boundary. Current hi-res models have this complex merging and
increasing in coverage as 850mb low-level jet picks up overnight.
The complex is progged to follow the boundary and instability
gradient, dropping southeast with time with severe t-storm threat
transitioning over to heavy rain and flash flood threat later
tonight. Current Flash Flood Watch area still looks good, but
will have to continue to monitor trends to see if it will need to
be expanded eastward into Arkansas. Boundary has appeared to
shifted a bit northward as of early this evening but with a line
of convection north of the area in northeast Kansas and extending
down through Missouri, the boundary is not expected to make much
more northward progress.

Forecast update this evening will focus on trending hourly pops as
convection moves in with slight adjustments for all other
forecast grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  86  70  83 /  90  60  40  20
FSM   72  84  73  84 /  80  90  60  60
MLC   76  87  73  83 /  70  70  60  70
BVO   71  84  67  82 /  90  60  30  20
FYV   71  79  68  80 /  90  90  60  30
BYV   67  78  67  80 /  90  90  50  20
MKO   74  84  71  83 /  90  80  60  40
MIO   68  81  67  81 /  90  80  40  20
F10   74  87  71  83 /  80  70  60  40
HHW   75  88  74  84 /  50  60  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ054>058-
     060>063-067-068.

AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
723 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
723 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 2AM SUNDAY...

...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH 1PM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
 	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
 	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop east of
a surface low currently positioned over southwest Kansas. A
nearly stationary boundary extending eastwards from this low
across south-central Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, and northwest
Arkansas will see additional development as the evening wears on,
especially over southeast Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Limited
severe threat will primarily be focused near the surface low in
south-central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma, but a few strong
to severe storms could push their way into northeast Oklahoma
later tonight. Main threats would be damaging winds, hail, heavy
rain, and lightning.

Heavy rain threat will continue to increase this evening and into
the overnight hours as storms work their way southeastward.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be common, with locally
higher amounts possible. This will create the potential for flash
flooding concerns, thus a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for
portions of northeast Oklahoma and could be extended into
northwest Arkansas depending on overall storm trends.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY through FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms with the threat for heavy rainfall will continue
Sunday as a slow moving frontal boundary stalls over far southeast
Oklahoma into Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches are likely through Sunday night with locally higher
amounts possible. Flash flooding concerns will continue into
Sunday...thus, a flash flood watch has been issued for parts of
the area through Sunday afternoon.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist for the remainder of the
work week with chances for showers and thunderstorms possible each
day.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
907 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

OKZ054-060315-
Osage OK-
907 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM CDT...

At 907 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles southeast of Chilocco to 2 miles southeast of
Newkirk to 3 miles northwest of Ponca City. Movement was east at 30
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Burbank...                        Grainola...
Foraker...                        Southern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...                      Apperson...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9648 3671 9652 3649 9671 3656 9676
      3656 9680 3652 9684 3655 9693 3657 9689
      3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9706 3660 9704
      3669 9706 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 287DEG 25KT 3697 9702 3685 9703 3673 9714

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S SHIDLER             36.72N 96.66W
08/05/2017  M76 MPH          OSAGE              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PMM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1100 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

OKZ055-056-060430-
Nowata OK-Washington OK-
1100 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND WEST
CENTRAL NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1059 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Dewey, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Dewey...
Copan...                          Wann...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3679 9571 3670 9597 3675 9600 3686 9600
      3694 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 239DEG 22KT 3679 9595

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1113 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

OKZ054-055-060445-
Osage OK-Washington OK-
1113 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL OSAGE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1113 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest
of Barnsdall, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Pawhuska...
Barnsdall...                      Wynona...
Ochelata...                       Avant...
Okesa...                          Pershing...
Nelagoney...                      Tallant...
Wolco...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3646 9633 3671 9634 3676 9600 3670 9596
      3648 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 266DEG 27KT 3660 9622

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

OKZ054-060530-
Osage OK-
1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1230 AM CDT...

At 1152 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles southwest
of Pawhuska, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Barnsdall...
Wynona...                         Okesa...
Pershing...                       Nelagoney...
Tallant...                        Wolco...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3651 9645 3671 9646 3674 9608 3653 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 261DEG 30KT 3662 9637

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1159 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

OKZ054-059-060530-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
1159 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN
PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1159 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles east of Fairfax to 10 miles east of Marland to
3 miles north of Perry. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Hominy...
Fairfax...                        Wynona...
Ralston...                        Skedee...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3673 9652 3647 9611 3637 9666 3625 9686
      3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703 3651 9703
      3651 9701 3653 9698 3653 9696 3655 9692
      3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698
      3659 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 301DEG 19KT 3660 9660 3653 9698 3634 9728