Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
825 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A complex of thunderstorms that developed east of the surface low
this afternoon in south-central Kansas has finally begun to make
some eastward propagation this evening along a quasi-stationary
boundary. Current hi-res models have this complex merging and
increasing in coverage as 850mb low-level jet picks up overnight.
The complex is progged to follow the boundary and instability
gradient, dropping southeast with time with severe t-storm threat
transitioning over to heavy rain and flash flood threat later
tonight. Current Flash Flood Watch area still looks good, but
will have to continue to monitor trends to see if it will need to
be expanded eastward into Arkansas. Boundary has appeared to
shifted a bit northward as of early this evening but with a line
of convection north of the area in northeast Kansas and extending
down through Missouri, the boundary is not expected to make much
more northward progress.

Forecast update this evening will focus on trending hourly pops as
convection moves in with slight adjustments for all other
forecast grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  86  70  83 /  90  70  40  20
FSM   72  84  73  84 /  50  90  60  60
MLC   76  87  73  83 /  50  70  60  70
BVO   71  84  67  82 /  90  70  30  20
FYV   71  79  68  80 /  70  90  60  30
BYV   67  78  67  80 /  60  90  50  20
MKO   74  84  71  83 /  80  80  60  40
MIO   68  81  67  81 /  90  90  40  20
F10   74  87  71  83 /  80  70  60  40
HHW   75  88  74  84 /  20  60  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ054>058-
     060>063-067-068.

OK...Severe Thunderstorm Watch through 2AM Sunday for OKZ054>057-
     059>062-064-067.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
723 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
723 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 2AM SUNDAY...

...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH 1PM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
 	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
 	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop east of
a surface low currently positioned over southwest Kansas. A
nearly stationary boundary extending eastwards from this low
across south-central Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, and northwest
Arkansas will see additional development as the evening wears on,
especially over southeast Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Limited
severe threat will primarily be focused near the surface low in
south-central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma, but a few strong
to severe storms could push their way into northeast Oklahoma
later tonight. Main threats would be damaging winds, hail, heavy
rain, and lightning.

Heavy rain threat will continue to increase this evening and into
the overnight hours as storms work their way southeastward.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be common, with locally
higher amounts possible. This will create the potential for flash
flooding concerns, thus a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for
portions of northeast Oklahoma and could be extended into
northwest Arkansas depending on overall storm trends.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY through FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms with the threat for heavy rainfall will continue
Sunday as a slow moving frontal boundary stalls over far southeast
Oklahoma into Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches are likely through Sunday night with locally higher
amounts possible. Flash flooding concerns will continue into
Sunday...thus, a flash flood watch has been issued for parts of
the area through Sunday afternoon.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist for the remainder of the
work week with chances for showers and thunderstorms possible each
day.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
824 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

OKZ054-060200-
Osage OK-
824 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

At 823 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northeast of
Foraker, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Elgin...                          Grainola...
Foraker...                        Bigheart...
Pearsonia...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9615 3673 9619 3684 9666 3700 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 279DEG 16KT 3694 9653

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
852 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

OKZ054-060230-
Osage OK-
852 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

At 851 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Foraker, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. The
Oklahoma Mesonet station at Foraker reported a 50 mph gust at 845 pm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Elgin...                          Foraker...
Bigheart...                       Pearsonia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9615 3667 9620 3678 9661 3700 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 288DEG 13KT 3688 9649

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
907 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

OKZ054-060315-
Osage OK-
907 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM CDT...

At 907 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles southeast of Chilocco to 2 miles southeast of
Newkirk to 3 miles northwest of Ponca City. Movement was east at 30
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Burbank...                        Grainola...
Foraker...                        Southern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...                      Apperson...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9648 3671 9652 3649 9671 3656 9676
      3656 9680 3652 9684 3655 9693 3657 9689
      3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9706 3660 9704
      3669 9706 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 287DEG 25KT 3697 9702 3685 9703 3673 9714

Lacy