Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
406 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main items of interest in the morning forecast will be in the
first 24 hours of the forecast, as we conclude this active pattern
that brought the record April rains and transition to a much
quieter pattern.

The severe threat is waning as we head into the early morning
hours. The cells have been hail, and lately, wind producers across
portions of NE OK. For now, the increasing threat will be
flooding as the band of precip along the low level waa/frontogenetic
zone has storms training over the same areas, mainly over far NE
OK near the KS border. This band of precip is expected to shift
northeast into KS and SW MO during the morning hours, and the
focus then shifts south along the low lvl cold frontogenetic zone.
The latest surface data indicates low level moisture is returning
north across TX. As the cold front encounters this better
moisture more storms will fire up and down the front and will
sweep across east central and southeast OK as well as west central
and northwest AR thru the morning hours. The true warm sector,
which lies across southern TX and nosing north into central TX, is
not going to have enough time to lift up into our region ahead of
the surging cold front. As such, this will limit the severe
potential this far N and W. Nevertheless, there will be enough
instability to warrant at least a limited severe hail/wind risk
across southeast OK into west central AR thru the morning hours.
The storms will be quickly exiting the area to the east by early
afternoon.

Strong north winds will develop behind the front as the day wears
on. We could see gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. Since conditions
appear marginal for a wind advisory due to uncertainties on how
well momentum will transfer down to the surface, will hold off
issuance for now and will let the day shift reevaluate.

Mid/upper level cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the Ozarks
tonight as PV is advected poleward on the nose of a strong upper
jet. A wrap-around band of precip will sweep thru the Ozarks
during the evening and overnight, but QPF is not expected to be
all that heavy. The rains should come to an end Thursday morning
as the mid/upper low moves away.

Skies will clear out on Thursday and this should allow for a more
favorable momentum transfer situation. Expect gusty northwest
winds on Thursday as a result. Also, with the cold temps aloft,
there could be a few showers during the afternoon. However, the
probability of measurable precip is pretty low at any one
location, so I have elected to keep a mention out of the forecast
for now.

Ridging will build in aloft over the Plains in the wake of the
upper low and is expected to persist well into next week as an
omega blocking pattern develops, bringing things to a screeching
halt. Below average temps for the remainder of this week will
climb to above average next week, though not significantly above
average as it looks now with highs generally in the lower 80s.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  45  69  48 /  70  10  10   0
FSM   69  47  68  49 /  90  40  10  10
MLC   67  46  69  49 /  80  10  10   0
BVO   56  44  69  45 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   67  43  63  44 /  90  60  10  10
BYV   64  43  60  46 /  90  70  30  10
MKO   65  45  69  47 /  80  10  10   0
MIO   55  43  66  47 /  90  30  10   0
F10   64  45  68  48 /  60  10  10   0
HHW   67  48  69  49 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ054>063-
     067>069.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
458 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Mainly this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue early
this morning across northeast Oklahoma, with a limited threat of
gusty winds with the strongest cells. This initial round of storms
will shift northeast of the area this morning, with the threat of
heavy rainfall becoming more focused from southeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas later this morning into the afternoon as a cold
front moves into the area. A few storms in this area may produce
large hail and damaging winds into the afternoon. The threat of
storms and heavy rainfall is expected to shift east of the area by
later this afternoon, with gusty north winds developing behind
the cold front.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY through TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After this system moves out of the region, an extended period of
dry and mild weather will prevail from late week through
the upcoming weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

OKZ054-055-060-061-030730-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Washington OK-
203 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...EAST
CENTRAL OSAGE...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 201 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated an area of strong winds
on the southern flank of a thunderstorm in eastern Osage County.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible across southern Washington,
northern Tulsa and western Rogers County through 230 AM.

Locations in or near the path include...
Skiatook...                       Collinsville...
Oologah...                        Avant...
Vera...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3648 9566 3631 9567 3635 9609 3650 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 274DEG 39KT 3646 9601

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
325 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

OKZ057-058-030900-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
325 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CRAIG AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

At 325 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles east of
Bluejacket, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Fairland...
Afton...                          Welch...
Bluejacket...                     Wyandotte...
Narcissa...                       Ottawa...
Peoria...                         Twin Bridges State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 293 and 313.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3668 9462 3670 9510 3688 9511 3693 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0825Z 267DEG 31KT 3680 9501

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
406 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

OKZ054-055-059-060-064-030945-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-Creek OK-
406 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHEASTERN
CREEK...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND CENTRAL
TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

At 405 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles north of Walnut Creek State Park to 2 miles
northeast of Mannford. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Sand Springs...
Owasso...                         Skiatook...
Collinsville...                   Mannford...
Sperry...                         Westport...
Vera...                           Keystone State Park...
Walnut Creek State Park...        Turley...
Gray...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 217 and 227.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3634 9633 3648 9582 3607 9589 3608 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 263DEG 25KT 3635 9624 3616 9632

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

OKZ057-058-061>063-067-068-031045-
Craig OK-Cherokee OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Wagoner OK-
Mayes OK-
511 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...SOUTHEASTERN
ROGERS...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA...MAYES...NORTHEASTERN
WAGONER AND NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

At 511 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northeast of White Oak to 3 miles south of
Inola. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Jay...
Pryor...                          Pryor Creek...
Grove...                          Chouteau...
Inola...                          Locust Grove...
Salina...                         Langley...
Kansas...                         Adair...
Bernice...                        Ketchum...
Spavinaw...                       Disney...
Oaks...                           Big Cabin...
Pensacola...                      Hoot Owl...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 261 and 290.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3658 9462 3600 9490 3602 9562 3667 9528
      3670 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1011Z 267DEG 45KT 3666 9523 3610 9552

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

ARZ001-OKZ057-058-062-063-068-069-031115-
Benton AR-Adair OK-Craig OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
Mayes OK-
538 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BENTON...SOUTHEASTERN
CRAIG...DELAWARE...SOUTHERN OTTAWA...EASTERN MAYES...NORTHERN ADAIR
AND NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

At 538 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Afton to 3 miles north of Peggs. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Siloam Springs...                 Jay...
Grove...                          Gentry...
Gravette...                       Decatur...
Locust Grove...                   Fairland...
Afton...                          West Siloam Springs...
Langley...                        Colcord...
Kansas...                         Bernice...
Ketchum...                        Spavinaw...
Wyandotte...                      Watts...
Disney...                         Oaks...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 292 and 301.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3650 9437 3610 9448 3610 9455
      3600 9454 3606 9520 3676 9501 3680 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1038Z 269DEG 33KT 3670 9495 3614 9510

Lacy