Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
406 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main items of interest in the morning forecast will be in the
first 24 hours of the forecast, as we conclude this active pattern
that brought the record April rains and transition to a much
quieter pattern.

The severe threat is waning as we head into the early morning
hours. The cells have been hail, and lately, wind producers across
portions of NE OK. For now, the increasing threat will be
flooding as the band of precip along the low level waa/frontogenetic
zone has storms training over the same areas, mainly over far NE
OK near the KS border. This band of precip is expected to shift
northeast into KS and SW MO during the morning hours, and the
focus then shifts south along the low lvl cold frontogenetic zone.
The latest surface data indicates low level moisture is returning
north across TX. As the cold front encounters this better
moisture more storms will fire up and down the front and will
sweep across east central and southeast OK as well as west central
and northwest AR thru the morning hours. The true warm sector,
which lies across southern TX and nosing north into central TX, is
not going to have enough time to lift up into our region ahead of
the surging cold front. As such, this will limit the severe
potential this far N and W. Nevertheless, there will be enough
instability to warrant at least a limited severe hail/wind risk
across southeast OK into west central AR thru the morning hours.
The storms will be quickly exiting the area to the east by early
afternoon.

Strong north winds will develop behind the front as the day wears
on. We could see gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. Since conditions
appear marginal for a wind advisory due to uncertainties on how
well momentum will transfer down to the surface, will hold off
issuance for now and will let the day shift reevaluate.

Mid/upper level cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the Ozarks
tonight as PV is advected poleward on the nose of a strong upper
jet. A wrap-around band of precip will sweep thru the Ozarks
during the evening and overnight, but QPF is not expected to be
all that heavy. The rains should come to an end Thursday morning
as the mid/upper low moves away.

Skies will clear out on Thursday and this should allow for a more
favorable momentum transfer situation. Expect gusty northwest
winds on Thursday as a result. Also, with the cold temps aloft,
there could be a few showers during the afternoon. However, the
probability of measurable precip is pretty low at any one
location, so I have elected to keep a mention out of the forecast
for now.

Ridging will build in aloft over the Plains in the wake of the
upper low and is expected to persist well into next week as an
omega blocking pattern develops, bringing things to a screeching
halt. Below average temps for the remainder of this week will
climb to above average next week, though not significantly above
average as it looks now with highs generally in the lower 80s.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  45  69  48 /  70  10  10   0
FSM   69  47  68  49 /  90  40  10  10
MLC   67  46  69  49 /  80  10  10   0
BVO   56  44  69  45 /  80  10  10   0
FYV   67  43  63  44 /  90  60  10  10
BYV   64  43  60  46 /  90  70  30  10
MKO   65  45  69  47 /  80  10  10   0
MIO   55  43  66  47 /  90  30  10   0
F10   64  45  68  48 /  60  10  10   0
HHW   67  48  69  49 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ054>063-
     067>069.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
452 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
452 PM CDT Tue May 2 2017

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the western
High Plains this evening and spread eastward overnight.
Repeated rounds of heavy rain are likely with locations
near the Oklahoma Kansas border and points northward
being the most likely for the heaviest rains.
A few storms may produce large hail with a locally
damaging wind gust also possible especially along and
north of a Tulsa to Fayetteville line.
Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the
day on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the
region.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY through MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The threat of locally heavy rainfall will shift into southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas with during the day on
Wednesday. Additionally, a few severe storms will
again be possible, primarily Wednesday afternoon, across
southeast Oklahoma. Large hail and locally damaging winds
will again be the main severe weather threat Wednesday afternoon.
After this system moves out of the region, an extended period of
dry and mild weather will prevail from late week through
the upcoming weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
133 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

OKZ057-030700-
Craig OK-
133 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAIG COUNTY UNTIL
200 AM CDT...

At 133 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles northwest of
Welch, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Welch...                          Hollow...

LAT...LON 3699 9504 3699 9503 3698 9503 3697 9504
      3696 9502 3695 9499 3694 9500 3683 9500
      3684 9530 3700 9532 3700 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 263DEG 24KT 3694 9522

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
159 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

OKZ054-030730-
Osage OK-
159 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
230 AM CDT...

At 159 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles west of
Grainola, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grainola...                       Foraker...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9639 3689 9635 3683 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0659Z 254DEG 40KT 3694 9672

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

OKZ054-055-060-061-030730-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Washington OK-
203 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...EAST
CENTRAL OSAGE...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 201 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated an area of strong winds
on the southern flank of a thunderstorm in eastern Osage County.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible across southern Washington,
northern Tulsa and western Rogers County through 230 AM.

Locations in or near the path include...
Skiatook...                       Collinsville...
Oologah...                        Avant...
Vera...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3648 9566 3631 9567 3635 9609 3650 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 274DEG 39KT 3646 9601

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
325 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

OKZ057-058-030900-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
325 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CRAIG AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

At 325 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles east of
Bluejacket, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Fairland...
Afton...                          Welch...
Bluejacket...                     Wyandotte...
Narcissa...                       Ottawa...
Peoria...                         Twin Bridges State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 293 and 313.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3668 9462 3670 9510 3688 9511 3693 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0825Z 267DEG 31KT 3680 9501

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
406 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

OKZ054-055-059-060-064-030945-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-Creek OK-
406 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHEASTERN
CREEK...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND CENTRAL
TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

At 405 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles north of Walnut Creek State Park to 2 miles
northeast of Mannford. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Sand Springs...
Owasso...                         Skiatook...
Collinsville...                   Mannford...
Sperry...                         Westport...
Vera...                           Keystone State Park...
Walnut Creek State Park...        Turley...
Gray...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 217 and 227.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3634 9633 3648 9582 3607 9589 3608 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 263DEG 25KT 3635 9624 3616 9632

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