Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
950 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Regional sfc analysis at 14z showed warm front extending from
approximately southern Sebastian County eastward to just south of
McAlester. Regarding severe weather potential, this will be the
feature to watch, and with ongoing widespread moderate to heavy
rainfall north of the front, not much northward movement is
expected until possibly later today as main sfc low lifts
northeast. Severe weather potential increasing over the next 1-2
hours across SE OK as organizing complex moving through OKC metro
continues southeast. There will be at least some tornado potential
as the storms interact with the effective warm front. No changes
made to Flash Flood Watch at this time, main updates are for
increased POPS across southeast OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 655 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Initial convective complex currently moving through northwest Arkansas
this morning with IFR conditions in the stronger storms. Multiple rounds
of showers/thunderstorms expected across E OK/NW AR today through
the evening hours. Storms should begin clearing NW OK by mid
evening and shift east of AR TAF sites shortly after midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor imagery showed progressive shortwave
trough moving across northeastern New Mexico and over the OK/TX
panhandles. The surface front extended from a low southwest of
Midland northeast to near Wichita Falls through southeast
Oklahoma. Elevated storms are ongoing across northeast Oklahoma,
forming along and north of the 850mb front. So far these storms
have been below severe limits. Most areas have received up to a
half inch of rain with isolated amounts over an inch.

The main concern today will be additional heavy rain and the
potential for flooding. There are several rivers in our area which
are forecast to have minor or moderate flooding based on forecast
precipitation amounts. The NAM shows the heaviest QPF axis farther
north across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas while
the ECMWF is a bit farther south. It does appear that widespread
2-3" amounts will occur today with locally higher amounts. We will
add Sequoyah and McIntosh counties to the ongoing Flood Watch.

As far as severe weather, the better potential is south of I-40.
The front will not lift north in areas where there has been
recent or ongoing convection. There are some storms approaching
from central OK that could produce isolated large hail across
mainly east central Oklahoma this morning. If storms can initiate
later this afternoon along the stalled front in southern
Oklahoma, they could affect mainly southeast Oklahoma by late
afternoon.

Short wave trough axis will be over northeast Oklahoma tonight,
which will drive the boundary south and bring an end to the rain
by early Saturday morning. Temperatures on Saturday will be quite
chilly compared to recent days, with highs in the 50s and lows on
Sunday morning in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday will bring a
return to sunshine and a warmup, with the next chance for
precipitation arriving by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  46  57  40 / 100  80  10  10
FSM   73  53  59  42 /  90  80  10  10
MLC   74  49  59  41 /  80  80  10   0
BVO   59  45  56  37 / 100  80  10   0
FYV   64  46  52  36 / 100  90  30  10
BYV   59  45  51  38 / 100  90  40  10
MKO   66  49  57  40 / 100  80  10  10
MIO   58  45  54  39 / 100  90  20  10
F10   65  48  58  41 / 100  80  10   0
HHW   80  52  61  43 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
941 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
941 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

...SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 11 AM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...South of Interstate 40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...North of Interstate 40.

DISCUSSION...
A complex of thunderstorms moving across central Oklahoma this
morning will continue to push southeast, likely reaching southeast
Oklahoma by around 11 AM. These storms will be moving into an
environment favorable for severe weather. A surface warm front
extends across southeast Oklahoma and as these storms interact
with the boundary, there will be a risk of significant severe
weather, including a few tornadoes across southeast Oklahoma by
late this morning, possibly extending into west central Arkansas
early this afternoon.

Flash flooding will become a significant concern with widespread
2 to 4 inches of rainfall expected through tonight with locally 6
inches possible. The heavy rainfall and severe weather threat
will begin to diminish after midnight as storms move east of the
area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY through SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Cooler conditions are expected behind the front through the weekend
as high pressure builds into the region. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will return Wednesday into Thursday of next week as another
storm system approaches from the west.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1010 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

OKZ060-064-066-211615-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Creek OK-
1010 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CREEK...NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1010 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles southwest of Yale to 3 miles northwest of
Kendrick to Sparks. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Western Tulsa...                  Sand Springs...
Bristow...                        Sapulpa...
Jenks...                          Glenpool...
Mannford...                       Drumright...
Kiefer...                         Beggs...
Mounds...                         Kellyville...
Oilton...                         Depew...
Slick...                          Shamrock...
Keystone State Park...            Liberty...
Gray...                           Milfay...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 219.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3616 9662 3616 9601 3564 9600 3564 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1510Z 267DEG 41KT 3607 9677 3583 9681 3561 9683

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1023 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

OKZ066-067-070-071-211600-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Wagoner OK-McIntosh OK-
1023 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCINTOSH...SOUTH
CENTRAL WAGONER...NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

At 1023 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northwest
of Schulter, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Henryetta...
Haskell...                        Morris...
Dewar...                          Schulter...
Boynton...                        Grayson...
Council Hill...                   Hoffman...
Wainwright...                     Hitchita...
Jamesville...                     Eram...
Choska...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3543 9601 3565 9600 3585 9561 3561 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 242DEG 40KT 3554 9601

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1058 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 E OKEMAH              35.43N 96.25W
04/21/2017  M64 MPH          OKFUSKEE           OK   MESONET

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1103 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

OKZ060-061-064-066-067-070-211645-
Tulsa OK-Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Rogers OK-Wagoner OK-Creek OK-
1103 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...EAST
CENTRAL CREEK...WAGONER...NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE...NORTHERN OKMULGEE
AND TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

At 1102 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Tulsa to 2 miles south of Beggs. Movement was east at
45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms. Some
small hail is also possible in the stronger cores.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Claremore...
Owasso...                         Bixby...
Sapulpa...                        Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...
Catoosa...                        Verdigris...
Haskell...                        Inola...
Kiefer...                         Beggs...
Mounds...                         Porter...
Taft...                           Preston...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 211 and 251.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3576 9546 3569 9615 3616 9611 3616 9600
      3623 9600 3634 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1602Z 261DEG 40KT 3615 9605 3571 9608

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 W HECTORVILLE         35.84N 96.00W
04/21/2017  M68 MPH          OKMULGEE           OK   MESONET

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
04/21/2017                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LOCAL MEDIA REPORTING HIGH WATER NEAR 31ST AND YALE, AND
            NEAR 49TH AND MEMORIAL.

&&

NMM