Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
307 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor imagery showed progressive shortwave
trough moving across northeastern New Mexico and over the OK/TX
panhandles. The surface front extended from a low southwest of
Midland northeast to near Wichita Falls through southeast
Oklahoma. Elevated storms are ongoing across northeast Oklahoma,
forming along and north of the 850mb front. So far these storms
have been below severe limits. Most areas have received up to a
half inch of rain with isolated amounts over an inch.

The main concern today will be additional heavy rain and the
potential for flooding. There are several rivers in our area which
are forecast to have minor or moderate flooding based on forecast
precipitation amounts. The NAM shows the heaviest QPF axis farther
north across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas while
the ECMWF is a bit farther south. It does appear that widespread
2-3" amounts will occur today with locally higher amounts. We will
add Sequoyah and McIntosh counties to the ongoing Flood Watch.

As far as severe weather, the better potential is south of I-40.
The front will not lift north in areas where there has been
recent or ongoing convection. There are some storms approaching
from central OK that could produce isolated large hail across
mainly east central Oklahoma this morning. If storms can initiate
later this afternoon along the stalled front in southern
Oklahoma, they could affect mainly southeast Oklahoma by late
afternoon.

Short wave trough axis will be over northeast Oklahoma tonight,
which will drive the boundary south and bring an end to the rain
by early Saturday morning. Temperatures on Saturday will be quite
chilly compared to recent days, with highs in the 50s and lows on
Sunday morning in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday will bring a
return to sunshine and a warmup, with the next chance for
precipitation arriving by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  46  57  40 / 100  80  10  10
FSM   73  53  59  42 /  90  80  10  10
MLC   74  49  59  41 /  80  80  10   0
BVO   59  45  56  37 / 100  80  10   0
FYV   64  46  52  36 / 100  90  30  10
BYV   59  45  51  38 / 100  90  40  10
MKO   66  49  57  40 / 100  80  10  10
MIO   58  45  54  39 / 100  90  20  10
F10   65  48  58  41 / 100  80  10   0
HHW   80  52  61  43 /  30  80  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ054>070.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....06

CORFIDI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
450 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
450 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

...FLOODING POTENTIAL INCREASES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Mainly after Midnight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and north of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Mainly after Midnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and north of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Mainly after Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this
afternoon and early evening along a cold front,
which will extend from west central Arkansas
through southeast Oklahoma.  After midnight
showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage
and become widespread by sunrise.  A few severe
storms are possible with large hail the primary
concern.

Heavy rainfall is also likely overnight with
area of flash flooding possible especially
along and north of Interstate 40.  The heavy
rainfall will continue through Friday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY and Sunday...No Hazards.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
through Friday morning with flooding becoming an increasing
concern through the day.  A lull in the heaviest rains may
develop by early afternoon before another round of showers
and thunderstorms expands across the region late Friday
afternoon through Friday night.  Total rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches will be common along and north of Interstate
40 with localized amounts near 6 inches possible.  This will
cause both flash flooding and larger river flooding.

Additionally, the risk of severe weather will increase by
mid afternoon on Friday, generally along and south of Interstate
40.  A risk for tornadoes will exist from late afternoon through
early evening before the risk transitions more toward large hail
and damaging winds.  The cold front will sweep through southeast
Oklahoma late Friday evening and largely end the severe weather
threat.

Breezy and cool conditions will prevail on Saturday with
gusty south winds returning early next week along with
thunderstorm chances by late next week.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
329 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

OKZ059-064-065-210900-
Pawnee OK-Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
329 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN
PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

At 329 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Yale to near Sparks. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Mannford...
Drumright...                      Oilton...
Depew...                          Terlton...
Shamrock...                       Welty...
Milfay...                         Silver City...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 193.

LAT...LON 3622 9629 3554 9642 3553 9662 3616 9662
      3616 9669
TIME...MOT...LOC 0829Z 254DEG 42KT 3610 9669 3561 9679