Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Topeka, KS

454 
WWUS53 KTOP 160452
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

KSC197-160500-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-170416T0500Z/
Wabaunsee-
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY...

At 1152 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast
of Paxico, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Maple Hill, Paxico and Keene. 

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 333 and 345.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3892 9616 3910 9621 3912 9601 3911 9600
      3911 9597 3910 9595 3894 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 262DEG 41KT 3901 9612 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
645 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

This afternoon, the surface cold front was located in western Kansas
with a tight pressure gradient continuing over the area today.  Deep
mixing lead to some wind gusts up to 40 mph late morning, especially
in east central Kansas, with continued gusts this afternoon up to 35
mph. These gusty south southwesterly winds throughout all of
northeast Kansas are expected to end by this evening as the front
approaches.

Main focus of the period is with thunderstorms developing ahead of
the cold front late this afternoon and evening. Even with storms
this morning temporarily reinforcing the cap, sufficient
destablilzation should occur through the afternoon for storm
development. The best timing for storms looks to be early this
evening near or after 7pm in northeastern Kansas.  With models
depicting between 2000-2500 J/kg and 25-30 kts of effective shear,
storms may become severe in nature, especially during their initial
formation.  Mid level lapse rates are impressive creating a threat
for large hail for any discrete cells or any cells with rotating
updrafts within a line of storms. After formation, storms will merge
into a line making damaging winds the primary threat.  The severe
threat will diminish late this evening.

The front hangs up around southeastern Kansas Sunday morning in
southeastern Kansas.  Isentropic lift over this boundary during the
morning and afternoon will lead to slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday, mainly south of I-70.  The rest of the CWA
will stay dry for the day.  Temperatures will be cooler Sunday than
today due to persistent northeasterly flow and cloud cover.  Highs
will generally be in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Sunday night the cold front will stall out over southern KS as the
flow aloft becomes zonal. The chances for showers and storms will
increase late Sunday night as a subtle shortwave trough supports
additional development. The NAM is much further south with the
majority of the precipitation as compared to the GFS and ECMWF. The
GFS ensembles show that the best chances will be mainly along and
south of interstate 70. There will be a decent moisture flux above
the front, which will contribute to MU cape around 500-1000 j/kg.
There should be a break in the precipitation on Monday until the
warm front lifts back northward Monday night and into Tuesday. On
Tuesday a compact shortwave trough tracks over the northern plains
with a trailing cold front extending southward across the central
plains. Any shower and storm activity in the morning will be the
result of isentropic lift in the mid levels. The cold front is
forecasted to pass through the area on Tuesday and will be the focus
for showers and thunderstorms. The instability appears to be modest
ahead of the front although the shear and large scale lift will be
marginal, but given the instability strong to severe storms can not
be ruled out. That front will quickly lift northward as a stronger
shortwave trough lifts out of the Rockies. There should be more
forcing with this shortwave trough and the fronts within the
vicinity will lead to increased chances for precipitation. On
Wednesday there is a chance the area could end up in the warm sector
therefore strong to severe storms can not be ruled out. Late in the
week an even stronger shortwave trough lifts out over the plains.
Although the exact track is still uncertain and therefore the
details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Convective trends are the main concern for this forecast. Still
have too little confidence to be specific and have kept TEMPO for
4 hours in the next several hours. VFR conditions will dominate by
11Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
323 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this morning may produce hail.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
and evening across the outlook area. The main hazards are large
hail, damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

As a series of storm systems make their way across the state
through the week, locally heavy rainfall is possible and could
bring localized flooding and river flooding. Stay tuned for
updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and early
evening.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
856 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     HAIL             6 N WELLS               39.22N 97.55W
04/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
947 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

KSZ021-022-034-035-160330-
Clay-Dickinson-Riley-Ottawa-
947 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN RILEY...SOUTHERN OTTAWA AND CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM
CDT...

At 947 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Green to near Culver. Movement was south
at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clay Center, Wakefield, Bennington, Leonardville, Randolph, Green,
Culver, Wells, Manchester, Longford, Oak Hill, Niles, Talmage and
Idana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central, north central, northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3896 9793 3956 9696 3956 9659 3953 9662
      3953 9663 3951 9664 3948 9668 3947 9668
      3946 9670 3946 9671 3944 9672 3922 9695
      3922 9696 3921 9696 3896 9722
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 355DEG 4KT 3945 9703 3900 9778

Skow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1015 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

KSZ055-160400-
Osage-
1015 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL 1100
PM CDT...

At 1015 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burlingame, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carbondale, Overbrook, Burlingame and Scranton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3867 9580 3876 9589 3887 9573 3887 9550
      3878 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 240DEG 18KT 3875 9579

Baerg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1025 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     HAIL             6 SW GLASCO             39.30N 97.92W
04/15/2017  M0.75 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

BAERG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1038 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

KSZ020-034-160415-
Cloud-Ottawa-
1038 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OTTAWA AND SOUTHWESTERN
CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1038 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Delphos, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glasco and Delphos.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3937 9789 3943 9750 3919 9748 3922 9789
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 266DEG 11KT 3932 9778

Baerg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1102 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N WELLS               39.22N 97.55W
04/15/2017  M2.30 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG